Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

This term is getting thrown around prematurely. 55 Metacritic and 70% RT isn't the greatest if you're talking critics. And it's too early to tell if audiences liked it. 

 

Why is it too early to tell if audiences liked it?

RT has allowed audience reviews since it's Oct 30th special showings, and it's currently sitting at 91% verified audience score and 89% all audience score. 

Add to that a B+ cinemascore and I think it's safe to say that it's not hated by the audiences that are actually seeing it. 

 

I agree with most folks in here who say that they just didn't know how to market it properly. 

I happened to have a chance to see a free preview of it earlier, and it was not what I was expecting it to be. I liked it, but just not what the ad material tried to convey. Also, they needed to do a better job tying it to The Shining. 

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Why is it too early to tell if audiences liked it?

RT has allowed audience reviews since it's Oct 30th special showings, and it's currently sitting at 91% verified audience score and 89% all audience score. 

Add to that a B+ cinemascore and I think it's safe to say that it's not hated by the audiences that are actually seeing it. 

 

I agree with most folks in here who say that they just didn't know how to market it properly. 

I happened to have a chance to see a free preview of it earlier, and it was not what I was expecting it to be. I liked it, but just not what the ad material tried to convey. Also, they needed to do a better job tying it to The Shining. 

It’s the consequence of trying to appease different masters, the people who like Kubrick’s The Shining, people who liked Stephen King’s The Shining and also King himself. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by Jonwo

[AniNate]

Flanagan's a journeyman filmmaker, he's probably already picked up more work.

[ThomasNicole]

38 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

This term is getting thrown around prematurely. 55 Metacritic and 70% RT isn't the greatest if you're talking critics. And it's too early to tell if audiences liked it. 

73%, and the average is pretty high... pretty good to me

 

i don't care about metacritic for movie so...

 

and cinemascore is pretty good aswell as audience score on RT

[martin]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

In a year with some pretty bad flops, Doctor Sleep might be the most embarrassing of them all. There's no reason it should be making this little  

nope...gemini man and terminator disagree.....w/ that little budget doctor sleep will break even........

[Legion Again]

@Jedi Jat Mostly these numbers might as well wait for tomorrow morning, but I was wondering if you had Fri+rough Sat for Current War, which studios aren’t reporting estimates for. Survivor reasons as I’m sure you could guess 😛 

[keysersoze123]

Midway is up somewhere between 17%(Cin) and 21%(AMC).

 

Joker is up 52% at AMC and Mal 2 is up around 90% at AMC.

[John2015]

3 hours ago, martin said:

nope...gemini man and terminator disagree.....w/ that little budget doctor sleep will break even........

Doctor Sleep  isn't low budget; it was cost around $50 million to make.  Wouldwide P&A also isn't cheap (at least $50 million).  

 

It wouldn't be a big moneyloser.  But it will loss money.

[a2k]

4 hours ago, martin said:

nope...gemini man and terminator disagree.....w/ that little budget doctor sleep will break even........

DS could do about 35 (2.7x * 13 ow) on 55 prod budget (Deadline "mid-50ish").

Same ratio (35:55) gives 115 dom on 180 prod budget.

So %-wise Maleficient2's 120-125 dom is gonna be closer to the 180 prod budget than DS with 35 on 55.

Also Maleficient2 is doing great OS-China (doubling 180). Don't think DS gonna do 55*2 OS-China.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Midway is up somewhere between 17%(Cin) and 21%(AMC).

 

Joker is up 52% at AMC and Mal 2 is up around 90% at AMC.

~19 ow for Midway using a +20% Sat (from true Fri) and very strong Sunday (-15%).

Sets Joker well for 9 weekend (using -30% Sun)

Mal2 for 8.75 (using low-20% sun drop)

edit: Mal2 8.4 using Charlie's actual nums with 20% Sun drop

Edited November 10, 2019 by a2k

[lorddemaxus]

Seems like Flanagan knew the movie wouldn't do very well in the boxoffice before it released. He seemed a bit unsure about the boxoffice prospects of the movie and liked a tweet about the weak boxoffice of the movie before the Friday numbers came out.

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Why is it too early to tell if audiences liked it?

RT has allowed audience reviews since it's Oct 30th special showings, and it's currently sitting at 91% verified audience score and 89% all audience score. 

Add to that a B+ cinemascore and I think it's safe to say that it's not hated by the audiences that are actually seeing it. 

 

I agree with most folks in here who say that they just didn't know how to market it properly. 

I happened to have a chance to see a free preview of it earlier, and it was not what I was expecting it to be. I liked it, but just not what the ad material tried to convey. Also, they needed to do a better job tying it to The Shining. 

He just doesn't like the movie without having even seen it yet. He's made up his mind that its shit so no point arguing.

[Zakiyyah6]

Calling Flanagan a journeyman director is absurd.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

@Jedi Jat Mostly these numbers might as well wait for tomorrow morning, but I was wondering if you had Fri+rough Sat for Current War, which studios aren’t reporting estimates for. Survivor reasons as I’m sure you could guess 😛 

65 105 : 170

Edited November 10, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[charlie Jatinder]

M: 6.5

PwF: 5.25

DS: 5.1 (yday 4.8)

T: 4.5

LC: 4.3

J: 3.8

M: 3.55

H: 3.1

TAF: 1.8

Z: 1.75

J: 1.6

P: 1.1

TL: 0.35

[a2k]

DS

5.2 (0.4+1.5+3.3)

5.1 (+55% from 3.3)

3.6 (-30%)

= 13.9

 

25% drop on Sun gives 3.8 and 14.1 ow.

Edited November 10, 2019 by a2k
Adding 0.4 Halloween number

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, a2k said:

DS

4.8 (1.5+3.3)

5.1 (+55% from 3.3)

3.6 (-30%)

= 13.5

Wouldn't Sunday drop be softer because of Veteran's Day?

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Wouldn't Sunday drop be softer because of Veteran's Day?

horror films usually drop 40% odd so felt 30% was good enough but yeah could do better. especially after that bump from true friday. will use 25-30%.

[troyand]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

P: 1.1

1.1m sat for Parasite, right? It's simply unbelievable.

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

M: 6.5

PwF: 5.25

DS: 5.1 (yday 4.8)

T: 4.5

LC: 4.3

J: 3.8

M: 3.55

H: 3.1

TAF: 1.8

Z: 1.75

J: 1.6

P: 1.1

TL: 0.35

Friday was 5.2.

Warner estimates could be wrong but 0.4M is a big difference...