Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, RRA said:

Anybody care to make TSS drop guesses? 
 

I’ll go spicy and say….55%. 

-62% I’ll guess. 

[Cooper Legion]

I guess it will have a nice drop

[DAJK]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

7-9M for Don't Breathe and Respect is why many theaters are starting to cut back hours and screens this week. It's better to have a weekend like July 23 where four titles are between 10-17M and the overall weekend is over 70M vs last week where everything was 4M or less aside from TSS and JC with a total box office of 65M. Cancelling empty showings of stuff like Black Widow/Green Knight/Stillwater for more showings of a 25-30M opener doesn't help much. This weekend might cross 70M, but it'll be the last one to do so in quite a while unless Shang-Chi opens over 50M. Hour/screen reductions will get worse next week since none of the new openers are guaranteed to hit 10M and Free Guy will be down to mid-teens.

Yes, but the end of August has always been dog days for movie theaters. Any theater owner looking at the next few weeks and thinking “dang, the numbers are so low because of covid” clearly hasn’t been a theater owner for long. This happens every year.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, DAJK said:

Yes, but the end of August has always been dog days for movie theaters. Any theater owner looking at the next few weeks and thinking “dang, the numbers are so low because of covid” clearly hasn’t been a theater owner for long. This happens every year.

 

Correct.  The end of August and most of September is always the worst time of the year for theater owners.  

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yes, but the end of August has always been dog days for movie theaters. Any theater owner looking at the next few weeks and thinking “dang, the numbers are so low because of covid” clearly hasn’t been a theater owner for long. This happens every year.

 

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Correct.  The end of August and most of September is always the worst time of the year for theater owners.  

For sure, but pre-pandemic, I wasn't seeing a theater like Disney Springs cut weekday hours down to 5-9:30 (which isn't even the worst it's been in the pandemic fwiw) or other AMCs keep screens offline. Theaters are being a bit more cautious on operating costs rn.

Edited August 13, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Cmasterclay]

For some reason Stillwater didn't open at my local theater and I realized it was because only 9 of the 18 screens are open - one side is totally closed off. So I had to drive a bit to see it when usually it'd be five minutes way. Sucks, man.

[EmpireCity]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

For sure, but pre-pandemic, I wasn't seeing a theater like Disney Springs cut weekday hours down to 5-9:30 (which isn't even the worst it's been in the pandemic fwiw) or other AMCs keep screens offline. Theaters are being a bit more cautious on operating costs rn.

 

Well, a lot of the problem is theaters are having a really hard time fully staffing.  We are seeing insane amounts of open jobs and wage inflation has made it all the worse.  

 

Theaters need high quality product to fill and justify the cost.  That won't arrive until October.  

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

7-9M for Don't Breathe and Respect is why many theaters are starting to cut back hours and screens this week. It's better to have a weekend like July 23 where four titles are between 10-17M and the overall weekend is over 70M vs last week where everything was 4M or less aside from TSS and JC with a total box office of 65M. Cancelling empty showings of stuff like Black Widow/Green Knight/Stillwater for more showings of a 25-30M opener doesn't help much. This weekend might cross 70M, but it'll be the last one to do so in quite a while unless Shang-Chi opens over 50M. Hour/screen reductions will get worse next week since none of the new openers are guaranteed to hit 10M and Free Guy will be down to mid-teens.

 

I agree - I see theater available hour cutbacks for now through September (ala, they won't replace the high school and college kids quitting, they'll just drop a shift and stay closed weekdays or only open weekday evenings), especially since 2 wide releases already moved out of September, so there's just less desired secondary content all-around.

 

Although we're still looking okay for our last weekend "$27M for Free Guy DOM OW" predict, so not all is lost:)...

[Madhuvan]

42 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

-62% I’ll guess. 

Yeah. It's holding better than I thought imo

[JustWatching]

56 minutes ago, RRA said:

Anybody care to make TSS drop guesses? 
 

I’ll go spicy and say….55%. 

69% (h/t Harley Quinn)

[Eric Ripley]

11 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Yeah. It's holding better than I thought imo

We don't...know how it's holding?

[Madhuvan]

18 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

We don't...know how it's holding?

Forbes published Monday and Tuesday number , I saw them on Weekdays thread

[wildphantom]

$30 million can’t be ruled out for Free Guy with the WOM that’s out there. 
Better people hear that buzz and don’t have a streaming option, instead having to go out and see it in a theater. Interesting couple of days coming up! 

[EmpireCity]

I put it in the other thread but thought it is relevant here as well.  CinemaCon let everyone know that the convention is happening as planned with a full confirmed schedule.  The only major change I see is that the opening party is now a pool party instead of inside at the Omnia.  

 

• Sony kicks off the event on Monday night. 
• MGM/UA present on Tuesday morning
• Warner Bros. presents on Tuesday afternoon
• Neon has a breakfast presentation on Wednesday
• Disney screens Shang-Chi on Wednesday morning
• Universal/Focus present on Wednesday afternoon
• Paramount presents on Thursday morning
• Lionsgate has the closing presentation on Thursday afternoon

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I put it in the other thread but thought it is relevant here as well.  CinemaCon let everyone know that the convention is happening as planned with a full confirmed schedule.  The only major change I see is that the opening party is now a pool party instead of inside at the Omnia.  

 

• Sony kicks off the event on Monday night. 
• MGM/UA present on Tuesday morning
• Warner Bros. presents on Tuesday afternoon
• Neon has a breakfast presentation on Wednesday
• Disney screens Shang-Chi on Wednesday morning
• Universal/Focus present on Wednesday afternoon
• Paramount presents on Thursday morning
• Lionsgate has the closing presentation on Thursday afternoon

Paramount is almost three hours. What for? lol What do they have to show? I think they'll screen Top Gun 2

[babz06]

Honestly these dont look like out of the norm August numbers, the openers are performing in line with expectations and probably would not have opened higher in non pandemic times. The biggest issue is that theaters cant support 150-200m+ budgeted blockbusters at the moment. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by babz06

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Well, a lot of the problem is theaters are having a really hard time fully staffing.  We are seeing insane amounts of open jobs and wage inflation has made it all the worse.  

 

Theaters need high quality product to fill and justify the cost.  That won't arrive until October.  

This is 100% true. The place I work is understaffed, the theater across the street is cutting out early matinees and late evenings because they don’t have enough managers to run full grind. 
 

Some theaters are also sharing/borrowing staff/managers from nearby locations. Staffing is a huge issue with theaters right now. No one wants to work.

[EmpireCity]

55 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Paramount is almost three hours. What for? lol What do they have to show? I think they'll screen Top Gun 2

 

Paramount always has a long presentation.  They will almost certainly have a large package of Top Gun and Mission Impossible 7 and would bet money on Tom Cruise being there in person.  

 

Scream will have an extensive reel.  Rumble and Sonic 2 as well.  

 

Lost City of D and a production update reel from Transformers are also very likely.  

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

• Paramount presents on Thursday morning

 

48 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Scream will have an extensive reel.   

 

I was going to say, Scream! 
 

Unfortunately none of it usually makes it’s way online. Hopefully a poster or title artwork, although we’ve already seen that via Instagram lol. 

[grey ghost]

So studios are supposed to embrace theater exclusives with 25 m opening weekends?

 

Is that sustainable?