Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Val357]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

It's been a while since any movie in this genre made a lot of money or at least broke even.

True, but it wasn't always THIS bad. I still think even if the box office is back for superheroes it still has a long way to go for everything else. I myself am not afraid to go to the theatre or anywhere else - I want to move on with life - but a lot of people my age and older still are. In other words I don't think this is the true market for non big IP movies. Maybe it was already dwindling but I refuse to believe this level we're seeing is the norm.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Val357 said:

I still think even if the box office is back for superheroes it still has a long way to go for everything else.

And horror  

[Val357]

Just now, Krissykins said:

And horror  

Right. I summed that up a bit too much haha. Superheroes aren't the ONLY thing doing well at the box office. 

 

And again, I know adult dramas were already dwindling but an Eastwood film (Cry Macho) can still do better. A Ridley Scott epic (The Last Duel) can still do better. I'm pretty convinced of that.

[filmlover]

Shared this in the tracking thread but Variety did publish an article yesterday that pretty much said "good luck, you're gonna need it" to all the Oscar contenders hoping to make money over the next two months in a market that has been struggling.

 

 

The next few weeks will be a critical test as a stream of Oscar hopefuls — such as Kenneth Branagh’s #Belfast, Kristen Stewart's #Spencer and Paul Thomas Anderson’s #LicoricePizza — try to build buzz at a time when release patterns are being upended. https://t.co/jjJHYK4RbM pic.twitter.com/Fq4RMjemdF

— Variety (@Variety) October 14, 2021

[Krissykins]

The Last Duel just looks so boring/unappealing to me, despite Jodie Comer being amazing.
 

One thing the film has going for it: I think out of Venice they were expecting an amazing response and it was stuck in the 60’s on RT for weeks, but I see it’s now grown to 86% and certified fresh. With a 92% verified audience score. It could find it’s audience on streaming. 

[Valonqar]

18 minutes ago, Firepower said:

It's been a while since any movie in this genre made a lot of money or at least broke even.

 

yep and yet studios still make them. The "if X flops they won't make Y" doesn't work for anything. 

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Shared this in the tracking thread but Variety did publish an article yesterday that pretty much said "good luck, you're gonna need it" to all the Oscar contenders hoping to make money over the next two months in a market that has been struggling.

 

 

 

 

Cause they aren't looking at contenders that won't struggle (movie posters behind the tag):

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2021 by Valonqar

[Ozymandias]

The Last Duel is the next Dredd

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Cause they aren't looking at contenders that won't struggle (movie posters behind the tag):

 

  Hide contents

 

Gonna be surprised if House of Gucci does strong numbers in the current environment given that it too is gonna be aimed at an older audience for the most part. It'll make more than what The Last Duel is gonna end up making for sure but anything over $40M would be excellent considering the circumstances.

[Valonqar]

House of Gucci has real buzz, great trailer views and likes and Gaga factor. Plus it's a fun movie, it isn't a heavy drama.

[Firepower]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It could find it’s audience on streaming. 

It doesn't matter at this point because damage is already done. Just like with many other well-received flops actually.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

House of Gucci has real buzz, great trailer views and likes and Gaga factor. Plus it's a fun movie, it isn't a heavy drama.

 

It's releasing the same day as Resident Evil and Encanto, 5 days after Ghostbusters and King Richard - it's gonna be screen-limited, which is gonna kill its shot for any large box office or buzz...

 

PS - Disney animated aka Encanto has ALWAYS been a 4 quad draw, especially focused in the same "draw lane" as House Of Gucci - women of all ages...so, limited screens, 2nd choice draw vs another movie at the same time, booked for presales based on how other adult movies draws have gone - hope for the best, expect the worst...

[Eric Duncan]

Lady Gaga will be the one element that will save Gucci. She'll be the big draw for the 18-34s, though it'll probably only do like 70M or whatever, so still not this big Knives Out-style breakout. But it'll probably still be leaps and bounds above every other adult-skewing film/awards hopeful this year.

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Plus it's a fun movie, it isn't a heavy drama.

Well...

Maybe it's not as bleak as The Last Duel, but this story is definitely dark, even if trailer looks a bit goofy because of all those accents.

[filmlover]

I imagine the plan for most of these Oscar hopefuls is to have them on streaming by Christmas. Spencer's early November release date probably means it'll be on PVOD on Thanksgiving weekend if the worst case scenario happens. In retrospect it was probably too much to hope for the specialty market to instantly bounce back the way IP cinema has, especially when every single awards contender last year ended up a glorified streaming release.

[AJG]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I imagine the plan for most of these Oscar hopefuls is to have them on streaming by Christmas. Spencer's early November release date probably means it'll be on PVOD on Thanksgiving weekend if the worst case scenario happens. In retrospect it was probably too much to hope for the specialty market to instantly bounce back the way IP cinema has, especially when every single awards contender last year ended up a glorified streaming release.

Spender is going straight to streaming in some markets. It’s entirely possible it’ll be online on the same day as the US release.

[Cmasterclay]

House of Gucci gets a great reaction whenever the trailer plays and will be a big hit - lots of star power and it is a very easy to market, fun movie. 75m for that one. King Richard WOULD be a hit without HBO Max and WSS will likely be a hit too. Those are the adult films that would be a hit even in normal times. In what world was Belfast or Licorice Pizza or Spencer ever making real money?

[Legion Again]

Gucci+Richard combined under Eternals OD

[Valonqar]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's releasing the same day as Resident Evil and Encanto, 5 days after Ghostbusters and King Richard - it's gonna be screen-limited, which is gonna kill its shot for any large box office or buzz...

 

PS - Disney animated aka Encanto has ALWAYS been a 4 quad draw, especially focused in the same "draw lane" as House Of Gucci - women of all ages...so, limited screens, 2nd choice draw vs another movie at the same time, booked for presales based on how other adult movies draws have gone - hope for the best, expect the worst...

 

Good point. Though Encanto and Ghostbusters are more likely to cut into each other. They both target families.

[Val357]

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Gucci+Richard combined under Eternals OD

Oooooh my. This either means very good things for Eternals or very bad things for House of Gucci and King Richard.