Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, famicommander said:

HBO Max movie ratios

 

Tom and Jerry - 3.262

GvK - 3.180

Conjuring 3 -2.720

Space Jam 2 - 2.271

Suicide Squad - 2.129

Mortal Kombat - 1.811

 

I can't see it doing as poorly as Space Jam 2, but probably not as well as GvK either.

Yeah, Space Jam 2 got the same as BW with Disney+. It's gonna hit somewhere middle which would be 2.73 if right in the middle ~$109.5m for Dune.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Sano said:

The thing is that GvK had good legs everywhere and made about 38% of its WW total from China. Dune looks to have no legs in China unfortunately. I think you're overshooting a tad, but we'll see. My guess is around 340-360 million WW.

 

GVK also had zero competition in the US until it's 3rd w/e with Mortal Kombat & Demon Slayer combining for a bit over $40m and then nothing in the 4th w/e,  movies opening under $9m in it's 6th and 7th and nothing again until it's 9th with AQP2 and Cruella.

 

Dune is not getting that clear field.

Edited October 24, 2021 by TalismanRing

[IcarusReborn]

4 hours ago, babz06 said:

40-50m ow? 

I'm thinking a pretty big opening for Matrix Resurrections. $70 million. 

 

[Starphanluke]

Dune is very lucky it doesn't have anything taking away most of the premium screens next weekend. Will be interesting to see its drop. Feels like it could be anywhere in the 60-70% range. 

[WrathOfHan]

40 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Dune is very lucky it doesn't have anything taking away most of the premium screens next weekend. Will be interesting to see its drop. Feels like it could be anywhere in the 60-70% range. 

Last Night in Soho is taking away most Dolby screens. I don't think it'll have much of an impact since IMAX will just take that audience in most areas

[CJohn]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

That $2.4m UK “debut” number also includes full wide release totals from Saturday and Sunday last weekend too lol. 
 

 

 

9 films over $1m in the US, first time since who knows when? 

It is the first time since the Summer. I think the 4th of July weekend did it. That weekend actually had the entire top 10 above 1M if I recall correctly. If it wasn't that one, it was either the one right before or right after.

[Starphanluke]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Last Night in Soho is taking away most Dolby screens. I don't think it'll have much of an impact since IMAX will just take that audience in most areas

Oh, didn't realize Soho was in Dolby. Yeah, luckily IMAX can easily pick up the slack. Going to get rocky once Eternals pushes it out of IMAX, though.

[DC Rich]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is the first time since the Summer. I think the 4th of July weekend did it. That weekend actually had the entire top 10 above 1M if I recall correctly. If it wasn't that one, it was either the one right before or right after.

 

I believe there was a couple of weekends in August too.

Edited October 24, 2021 by DC Rich
Quick double check, surprisingly 4 weekends in a row.

[excel1]

7 hours ago, Napoleon said:

With Dune opening at $40m, what are our expectations for The Matrix Resurrections?

 

A lot more than Dune. Keanu and Matrix name alone are much bigger.

[ThomasNicole]

I hope second weekend doesn't drop much harder than 60%, it doesn't even have competition.

 

I think 100M DOM is happening, even if barely.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Matrix has a flashy trailer and the sequels were the biggest R hits at the time. But it opens on a Wednesday in a crowded Christmas marketplace. Same day as Kingsman and week after Spider-Man. Maybe 40m 5day would be ok?

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Matrix has a flashy trailer and the sequels were the biggest R hits at the time. But it opens on a Wednesday in a crowded Christmas marketplace. Same day as Kingsman and week after Spider-Man. Maybe 40m 5day would be ok?

 

I really think a fair bit bigger than that. 50M at least I would say. 

[ThomasNicole]

Speaking of Dune, Grace Randolph said she heard WB is very happy (which is true because they said it to Variety) and it's likely announcing the sequel officially sometime this week.

 

Before anyone start, yes, i know she's messy, i know she can start unnecessary drama and drop wrong infos. Still, sometimes she get it right (like Paramount delays and DS2 delay), so maybe this is the week to finish these long waiting for sequel confirmation.

 

 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Speaking of Dune, Grace Randolph said she heard WB is very happy (which is true because they said it to Variety) and it's likely announcing the sequel officially sometime this week.

 

Before anyone start, yes, i know she's messy, i know she can start unnecessary drama and drop wrong infos. Still, sometimes she get it right (like Paramount delays and DS2 delay), so maybe this is the week to finish these long waiting for sequel confirmation.

 

As someone who has archly commented on Grace Randolph before, I do feel there's an art to reading her stuff.  The more drama filled?  Eh, pass.  If they're right, it'll get confirmation soon enough.  More business-y?  Probably a bit more on the level.

 

As many, she's better on some properties than others.  Also have to... take into account her biases.

 

Seems reasonable enough here.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Porthos

[EmpireCity]

Dune is on track right now for a $10m+ Sunday.  

 

The actuals should go up significantly from the estimates.  

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Dune is on track right now for a $10m+ Sunday.  

 

The actuals should go up significantly from the estimates.  

That is awesome. 

 

BTW what is your prediction for Eternals. You were on the money on Shang Chi. 

[poweranimals]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

As someone who has archly commented on Grace Randolph before, I do feel there's an art to reading her stuff.  The more drama filled?  Eh, pass.  If they're right, it'll get confirmation soon enough.  More business-y?  Probably a bit more on the level.

 

As many, she's better on some properties than others.  Also have to... take into account her biases.

 

Seems reasonable enough here.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 😜

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is awesome. 

 

BTW what is your prediction for Eternals. You were on the money on Shang Chi. 

 

I'm not feeling any real buzz on Eternals.  My guess would be around $80m at the moment, but I haven't really looked at the tracking yet.  The reviews aren't going to help.  

[poweranimals]

4 hours ago, IcarusReborn said:

I'm thinking a pretty big opening for Matrix Resurrections. $70 million. 

 

Remember it's gotta compete against Spidey.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

Dune is very lucky it doesn't have anything taking away most of the premium screens next weekend. Will be interesting to see its drop. Feels like it could be anywhere in the 60-70% range. 

 

I'm curious why you think it will drop that much.  It's not a sequel, it didn't have a massive preview number sp I'm not sure why it would drop that high.  WOM seems to be pretty good on it so I don't see why it would drop more than 55%.  I could be wrong of course but 60% seems high.  70% is Twilight kind of stuff.