Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[von Kenni]

Also playing with those numbers a bit. If HBO Max has about 42m subscribers, US has 130m households, and if you extrapolate the 1.9m for the US total for the OW you get 6.2m (rude simplification, e.g. HBO Max population doesn't represent perfectly the whole US population). So out of those 6.2m, 1.9m watched it on HBO Max and assuming $14.4 ATP 2.5m saw it in cinema (someone has an accurate number of admissions?), then 1.8m admissions/viewings was left on the table during the weekend or most of them might count to that HBO Max not representing the whole US population (though could go to other direction too?).

 

Anyhew, the 1.9m - 2.5m admission ratio is interesting and the potential 6.2m for OW...

 

I bet if we would dig into these numbers with all the HBO Max releases we would find some patterns that would reveal the loss in box office more accurately and maybe, maybe the whole potential viewership for the release in question.

Edited October 25, 2021 by von Kenni
Forgot to exclude Canada first...

[Napoleon]

That HBO Max number is shockingly low. The press was expecting it to break the Mortal Kombat/Godzilla v Kong record, and it didn't come close. Hopefully it means better holds at the box office.

[von Kenni]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Assuming 10% of the household would have gone to theater if without HBO max, that is 190k household and take 1-2 people from each household, that is 285k attendance which translate to $3.5m box office gross at bare minimum on opening weekend. 

This 10% is exactly that we would like to know and I'm sure that can be logically deducted by analyzing the existing HBO Max & theatrical data on all releases. At least the ball park and some sense on the variance between that DC crowd and rest. Plus the overall legs and that way for the whole potential viewers/admissions. At first glance not just couple hours job.

[ThomasNicole]

Well maybe with people more interested in seeing on theaters than at home and keeping IMAX / PFL screens, second weekend drop actually can be pretty good.

 

HBO numbers aren't bad tho. Let's hope WB announce the sequel this week like rumours are saying.

[von Kenni]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well maybe with people more interested in seeing on theaters than at home and keeping IMAX / PFL screens, second weekend drop actually can be pretty good.

 

HBO numbers aren't bad tho. Let's hope WB announce the sequel this week like rumours are saying.

Yeah, there's a lot we don't know with this data but one thing we know: Dune is filling PFLs and especially IMAXs full everywhere in the world at a record that now other release in 2021 has done and actually before in some cases? (Interstellar had same sized draw but don't know which else has had) until they are snatched away from it.

 

So this isn't like any other HBO Max release so far. It's PLFs, fanatic fanbase, & excellent WOM vs. smaller GA appeal & HBO Max. In a week we know which one wins. For me, the former if less than -60% and latter if over -60%.

[Valonqar]

Fedaykin, we can't stop winning! Up 1M and 0.01! 41.01M! I really appreciates 1 and 1! 

[xiazhi]

Views are too low to warrant a sequel.

[Movie nerd]

Samba number for Dune is medicore, nothing to write about, especially seeing names of some titles which got much higer number. 

Unfortunately it kinda confirms that at least in States Dune doesn't have wide appeal for general audience and I don't expect the sequel to make more than lets say 50-60 mln on opening weekend. It has not very high ceiling. I don't think in pre pandemic market it would do much more than it did last weekend, probably few milions more, maybe it would got to 50 mln but doubt it. 

It has its core fanbase and scifi interested audience but not much more, demo for op weekend audience confirmes this, very big chunk of the audience were white males. 

[Porthos]

Actuals:

 

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Dune	Warner Bros.	$41,011,174		4,125		$9,942	$41,011,174	1
2	(1)	Halloween Kills	Universal	$14,450,215	-71%	3,727	+22	$3,877	$73,055,060	2
3	(2)	No Time to Die	United Ar…	$12,202,368	-49%	3,807	-600	$3,205	$120,357,453	3
4	(3)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$9,301,908	-44%	3,513	-500	$2,648	$182,031,539	4
5	N	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Cent…	$7,300,225		3,560		$2,051	$7,300,225	1
6	(4)	The Addams Family 2	United Ar…	$4,495,736	-36%	2,907	-700	$1,547	$48,474,713	4
7	(5)	The Last Duel	20th Cent…	$2,066,168	-57%	3,065	n/c	$674	$8,534,136	2
8	(6)	Shang-Chi and the Leg…	Walt Disney	$2,019,505	-39%	1,600	-700	$1,262	$220,993,337	8
9	N	The French Dispatch	Searchlig…	$1,348,804		52		$25,939	$1,348,804	1
-	(-)	Free Guy	20th Cent…	$244,514	-62%	380	-535	$643	$121,240,515	11
-	(-)	Candyman	Universal	$159,640	-64%	786	-226	$203	$61,036,865	9
-	(-)	Lamb	A24	$156,905	-71%	435	-430	$361	$2,519,928	3
-	(-)	Dear Evan Hansen	Universal	$114,650	-70%	489	-485	$234	$14,830,345	5
-	N	Becoming Cousteau	Picturehouse	$110,959		319		$348	$110,959	1
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$61,811	-43%	145	-90	$426	$116,850,710	13
-	(-)	Titane	Neon	$41,099	-54%	39	-73	$1,054	$1,409,664	4
-	(-)	Cry Macho	Warner Bros.	$31,032	-57%	101	-134	$307	$10,242,474	6
-	(-)	Mass	Bleecker …	$23,794	-15%	59	+22	$403	$90,038	3
-	(-)	Bergman Island	IFC Films	$23,776	-58%	89	-26	$267	$113,257	2
-	(-)	The Many Saints of Ne…	Warner Bros.	$23,132		102		$227	$8,201,441	4
-	(-)	The Eyes of Tammy Faye	Searchlig…	$9,560	-57%	25	-30	$382	$2,388,551	6
-	(-)	I’m Your Man	Bleecker …	$9,086	-68%	36	-67	$252	$255,802	5
-	(-)	The Alpinist	Roadside …	$8,625	-1%	17	-5	$507	$838,013	7
-	N	The Laws Of The Unive…	Entertain…	$8,183		8		$1,023	$8,183	1
-	(-)	Hard Luck Love Song	Roadside …	$6,552	-82%	76	-96	$86	$64,522	2
-	(-)	Luzzu	Kino Lorber	$5,757	+140%	5	+4	$1,151	$24,656	2
-	(-)	Golden Voices	Music Box…	$5,558	+73%	14	+6	$397	$20,558	3
-	(-)	On Broadway	Kino Lorber	$3,710	+551%	5	+2	$742	$80,237	10
-	(-)	Falling for Figaro	IFC Films	$1,586	+61%	4	-6	$397	$34,370	4
-	(-)	Wife of a Spy	Kino Lorber	$1,307	-65%	6	-6	$218	$57,735	6
-	(-)	Old Henry	Shout! Fa…	$1,242	+4%	4	n/c	$311	$40,076	4
-	(-)	Tango Shalom	Vision Films	$996	-45%	5	n/c	$199	$99,066	8
-	(-)	Azor	MUBI	$505	-74%	4	-3	$126	$52,106	7
-	(-)	Ema	Music Box…	$84	-61%	1	n/c	$84	$53,283	11
-	(-)	Summer of 85	Music Box…	$44		1		$44	$71,655	19

[Marcos12]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Also playing with those numbers a bit. If HBO Max has about 42m subscribers, US has 130m households, and if you extrapolate the 1.9m for the US total for the OW you get 6.2m (rude simplification, e.g. HBO Max population doesn't represent perfectly the whole US population). So out of those 6.2m, 1.9m watched it on HBO Max and assuming $14.4 ATP 2.5m saw it in cinema (someone has an accurate number of admissions?), then 1.8m admissions/viewings was left on the table during the weekend or most of them might count to that HBO Max not representing the whole US population (though could go to other direction too?).

 

Anyhew, the 1.9m - 2.5m admission ratio is interesting and the potential 6.2m for OW...

 

I bet if we would dig into these numbers with all the HBO Max releases we would find some patterns that would reveal the loss in box office more accurately and maybe, maybe the whole potential viewership for the release in question.

You need  to take into account that SambaTV only measures Smartvs.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Marcos12

[cookie]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Actuals:

 

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Dune	Warner Bros.	$41,011,174		4,125		$9,942	$41,011,174	1
2	(1)	Halloween Kills	Universal	$14,450,215	-71%	3,727	+22	$3,877	$73,055,060	2
3	(2)	No Time to Die	United Ar…	$12,202,368	-49%	3,807	-600	$3,205	$120,357,453	3
4	(3)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$9,301,908	-44%	3,513	-500	$2,648	$182,031,539	4
5	N	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Cent…	$7,300,225		3,560		$2,051	$7,300,225	1
6	(4)	The Addams Family 2	United Ar…	$4,495,736	-36%	2,907	-700	$1,547	$48,474,713	4
7	(5)	The Last Duel	20th Cent…	$2,066,168	-57%	3,065	n/c	$674	$8,534,136	2
8	(6)	Shang-Chi and the Leg…	Walt Disney	$2,019,505	-39%	1,600	-700	$1,262	$220,993,337	8
9	N	The French Dispatch	Searchlig…	$1,348,804		52		$25,939	$1,348,804	1
-	(-)	Free Guy	20th Cent…	$244,514	-62%	380	-535	$643	$121,240,515	11
-	(-)	Candyman	Universal	$159,640	-64%	786	-226	$203	$61,036,865	9
-	(-)	Lamb	A24	$156,905	-71%	435	-430	$361	$2,519,928	3
-	(-)	Dear Evan Hansen	Universal	$114,650	-70%	489	-485	$234	$14,830,345	5
-	N	Becoming Cousteau	Picturehouse	$110,959		319		$348	$110,959	1
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$61,811	-43%	145	-90	$426	$116,850,710	13
-	(-)	Titane	Neon	$41,099	-54%	39	-73	$1,054	$1,409,664	4
-	(-)	Cry Macho	Warner Bros.	$31,032	-57%	101	-134	$307	$10,242,474	6
-	(-)	Mass	Bleecker …	$23,794	-15%	59	+22	$403	$90,038	3
-	(-)	Bergman Island	IFC Films	$23,776	-58%	89	-26	$267	$113,257	2
-	(-)	The Many Saints of Ne…	Warner Bros.	$23,132		102		$227	$8,201,441	4
-	(-)	The Eyes of Tammy Faye	Searchlig…	$9,560	-57%	25	-30	$382	$2,388,551	6
-	(-)	I’m Your Man	Bleecker …	$9,086	-68%	36	-67	$252	$255,802	5
-	(-)	The Alpinist	Roadside …	$8,625	-1%	17	-5	$507	$838,013	7
-	N	The Laws Of The Unive…	Entertain…	$8,183		8		$1,023	$8,183	1
-	(-)	Hard Luck Love Song	Roadside …	$6,552	-82%	76	-96	$86	$64,522	2
-	(-)	Luzzu	Kino Lorber	$5,757	+140%	5	+4	$1,151	$24,656	2
-	(-)	Golden Voices	Music Box…	$5,558	+73%	14	+6	$397	$20,558	3
-	(-)	On Broadway	Kino Lorber	$3,710	+551%	5	+2	$742	$80,237	10
-	(-)	Falling for Figaro	IFC Films	$1,586	+61%	4	-6	$397	$34,370	4
-	(-)	Wife of a Spy	Kino Lorber	$1,307	-65%	6	-6	$218	$57,735	6
-	(-)	Old Henry	Shout! Fa…	$1,242	+4%	4	n/c	$311	$40,076	4
-	(-)	Tango Shalom	Vision Films	$996	-45%	5	n/c	$199	$99,066	8
-	(-)	Azor	MUBI	$505	-74%	4	-3	$126	$52,106	7
-	(-)	Ema	Music Box…	$84	-61%	1	n/c	$84	$53,283	11
-	(-)	Summer of 85	Music Box…	$44		1		$44	$71,655	19

NTTD under 50%. nice.

[VENOM]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Actuals:

 

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Dune	Warner Bros.	$41,011,174		4,125		$9,942	$41,011,174	1
2	(1)	Halloween Kills	Universal	$14,450,215	-71%	3,727	+22	$3,877	$73,055,060	2
3	(2)	No Time to Die	United Ar…	$12,202,368	-49%	3,807	-600	$3,205	$120,357,453	3
4	(3)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$9,301,908	-44%	3,513	-500	$2,648	$182,031,539	4
5	N	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Cent…	$7,300,225		3,560		$2,051	$7,300,225	1
6	(4)	The Addams Family 2	United Ar…	$4,495,736	-36%	2,907	-700	$1,547	$48,474,713	4
7	(5)	The Last Duel	20th Cent…	$2,066,168	-57%	3,065	n/c	$674	$8,534,136	2
8	(6)	Shang-Chi and the Leg…	Walt Disney	$2,019,505	-39%	1,600	-700	$1,262	$220,993,337	8
9	N	The French Dispatch	Searchlig…	$1,348,804		52		$25,939	$1,348,804	1
-	(-)	Free Guy	20th Cent…	$244,514	-62%	380	-535	$643	$121,240,515	11
-	(-)	Candyman	Universal	$159,640	-64%	786	-226	$203	$61,036,865	9
-	(-)	Lamb	A24	$156,905	-71%	435	-430	$361	$2,519,928	3
-	(-)	Dear Evan Hansen	Universal	$114,650	-70%	489	-485	$234	$14,830,345	5
-	N	Becoming Cousteau	Picturehouse	$110,959		319		$348	$110,959	1
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$61,811	-43%	145	-90	$426	$116,850,710	13
-	(-)	Titane	Neon	$41,099	-54%	39	-73	$1,054	$1,409,664	4
-	(-)	Cry Macho	Warner Bros.	$31,032	-57%	101	-134	$307	$10,242,474	6
-	(-)	Mass	Bleecker …	$23,794	-15%	59	+22	$403	$90,038	3
-	(-)	Bergman Island	IFC Films	$23,776	-58%	89	-26	$267	$113,257	2
-	(-)	The Many Saints of Ne…	Warner Bros.	$23,132		102		$227	$8,201,441	4
-	(-)	The Eyes of Tammy Faye	Searchlig…	$9,560	-57%	25	-30	$382	$2,388,551	6
-	(-)	I’m Your Man	Bleecker …	$9,086	-68%	36	-67	$252	$255,802	5
-	(-)	The Alpinist	Roadside …	$8,625	-1%	17	-5	$507	$838,013	7
-	N	The Laws Of The Unive…	Entertain…	$8,183		8		$1,023	$8,183	1
-	(-)	Hard Luck Love Song	Roadside …	$6,552	-82%	76	-96	$86	$64,522	2
-	(-)	Luzzu	Kino Lorber	$5,757	+140%	5	+4	$1,151	$24,656	2
-	(-)	Golden Voices	Music Box…	$5,558	+73%	14	+6	$397	$20,558	3
-	(-)	On Broadway	Kino Lorber	$3,710	+551%	5	+2	$742	$80,237	10
-	(-)	Falling for Figaro	IFC Films	$1,586	+61%	4	-6	$397	$34,370	4
-	(-)	Wife of a Spy	Kino Lorber	$1,307	-65%	6	-6	$218	$57,735	6
-	(-)	Old Henry	Shout! Fa…	$1,242	+4%	4	n/c	$311	$40,076	4
-	(-)	Tango Shalom	Vision Films	$996	-45%	5	n/c	$199	$99,066	8
-	(-)	Azor	MUBI	$505	-74%	4	-3	$126	$52,106	7
-	(-)	Ema	Music Box…	$84	-61%	1	n/c	$84	$53,283	11
-	(-)	Summer of 85	Music Box…	$44		1		$44	$71,655	19

Venom under 45%. Nice.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

You need  to take into account that SambaTV only measures Smartvs.

 

Samba TV more or less treats Smart TVs as a giant sampling pool and then extrapolates that out to US Households.

 

They're probably best on a like-for-like comparison versus other SambaTV reported numbers and not used as a cross reference against other tracking services.

[Cooper Legion]

SC miss 8th weekend record, back to flop status. 10th will be very tough.

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Movie nerd said:

Samba number for Dune is medicore, nothing to write about, especially seeing names of some titles which got much higer number. 

Unfortunately it kinda confirms that at least in States Dune doesn't have wide appeal for general audience and I don't expect the sequel to make more than lets say 50-60 mln on opening weekend. It has not very high ceiling. I don't think in pre pandemic market it would do much more than it did last weekend, probably few milions more, maybe it would got to 50 mln but doubt it. 

It has its core fanbase and scifi interested audience but not much more, demo for op weekend audience confirmes this, very big chunk of the audience were white males. 

Well, a good comparison is Interstellar with its high concept scifi and demo being close to Dune. And Dune's demo was actually more diverse by ethnicity/race than US as a whole. Sure male-female ratio was 6-4 (way less men than Venom 2, slightly less men than NTTD and the same as with Shang Chi, BW was just slightly more women than Dune) but that's ok. People under 25 30% and over 70% (Interstellar had 75%).

 

Oh, and 30%! of the Dune's OW cinema audience said they'd watch it again in a theater.

 

Interstellar grossed $220m DOM & over $800m WW (inf. adj.) which is fair to say that it can be Dune's potential in the future.

 

We've talked about HBO Max here before and considering it's skew to DC flicks and comparing what Dune grossed in the DOM OW, it definitely is a combined result that makes the studio and Legendary happy.

 

You just witnessed a birth of a new franchise.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by von Kenni

[von Kenni]

53 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

You need  to take into account that SambaTV only measures Smartvs.

Good point and good points with Porthos too. There's probably many of these things that need to take into account when using this data and it'll still be questionable to cross-reference with other data. Still...

[DAJK]

How wide is Dispatch even going? Because no theaters in my chain are getting it this weekend in my area. Would guess ~400 but maybe I’m wrong and they’re just thinking “screw it, Canada won’t like it”.

[Steele131]

1 hour ago, Movie nerd said:

Samba number for Dune is medicore, nothing to write about, especially seeing names of some titles which got much higer number. 

Unfortunately it kinda confirms that at least in States Dune doesn't have wide appeal for general audience and I don't expect the sequel to make more than lets say 50-60 mln on opening weekend. It has not very high ceiling. I don't think in pre pandemic market it would do much more than it did last weekend, probably few milions more, maybe it would got to 50 mln but doubt it. 

It has its core fanbase and scifi interested audience but not much more, demo for op weekend audience confirmes this, very big chunk of the audience were white males. 

50-60M opening for the Dune sequel would be good lol

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

How wide is Dispatch even going? Because no theaters in my chain are getting it this weekend in my area. Would guess ~400 but maybe I’m wrong and they’re just thinking “screw it, Canada won’t like it”.

500+ per deadline and 600+ per BOR

[von Kenni]

12 minutes ago, Steele131 said:

50-60M opening for the Dune sequel would be good lol

 

Interstellar opened at $55m (adj.), grossed $220m dom, and over $800m WW...yeah, total flop.