⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[M37]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at early presales, I am feeling very good about this breaking out. My early prediction would be 80/275m kind of run but it could go higher. Its going to be the 1st big opener/breakout of this year. 

Those would be some pretty strong legs 

 

For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else)

[HummingLemon496]

100/285/700

Edited January 26 by HummingLemon496

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Those would be some pretty strong legs 

 

For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else)

Difference is Market is dead leading to the release and I am not seeing anything for adults even beyond that. Its going to keep chugging along especially if it gets a universal rave. Oppenheimer was slightly impacted by other juggernaut as much as barbenheimer effect was a positive. It did not have that many PLF outside Imax. Dune has it all and I am expecting it to hold most of them as its going to be must watch on the best screen possible. 

[HummingLemon496]

Imagine if they released this on Dec 22 with 10 days where people are off and then like 2 months with no competition. $350M+ DOM easy.

Edited January 26 by HummingLemon496

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Difference is Market is dead leading to the release and I am not seeing anything for adults even beyond that. Its going to keep chugging along especially if it gets a universal rave. Oppenheimer was slightly impacted by other juggernaut as much as barbenheimer effect was a positive. It did not have that many PLF outside Imax. Dune has it all and I am expecting it to hold most of them as its going to be must watch on the best screen possible. 

Dead market leading up to release should lead to a bigger opening, catching a wave of pent-up demand, no limitation on capacity (except PLF obv), not legs though. The only significant (>$100M total) Jan-April releases to manage those kind of legs were Lost City (2.64x), kids movie Mario (2.40x), and the most plausible comp Uncharted (2.43x), but which wasn’t a brand name sequel with a natural push for a more frontloaded opening

If Dune 2 is going to get to $275M (setting aside that total is in the “dead zone”), it far more likely than not will need an OW around (at least?) $100M

[filmlover]

14 hours ago, Morieris said:

...

[Valonqar]

First movie had strong legs especially OS and even day and date release on Max didn't hurt dom run. This time, there will be only advantages minus Russia (its Top 3 OS market) but increases everywhere will compensate. As other posinted out, it's the first spectacle of the year so it should comfortably blow up. 

[Valonqar]

Made the OS Thread:

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

Those would be some pretty strong legs 

 

For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else)

 

March legs do well b/c of varied spring breaks and then Easter...I think early March rivals summer legs when it comes to non-kid-oriented fare...

Edited January 26 by TwoMisfits

[Valonqar]

Yeha, I think 700M WW is happening but I don't want to jinx it. We saw in Spiderverse case how hard it is despite reviews, WOM, schools out, etc.

[Ozymandias]

On 1/24/2024 at 2:54 PM, Valonqar said:

ROTK-like clean sweep here we come!

 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

 

True. One is the King the other is the God Emperor. 

Edited January 26 by Valonqar

[WittyUsername]

I would be somewhat surprised if this makes more than ATSV, at least domestically. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Yeha, I think 700M WW is happening but I don't want to jinx it. We saw in Spiderverse case how hard it is despite reviews, WOM, schools out, etc.

The problem with Spider-verse was its international gross. Like Dune made almost as much as Spiderverse did internationally. 250+450 is possible for Dune 2.

[M37]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

March legs do well b/c of varied spring breaks and then Easter...I think early March rivals summer legs when it comes to non-kid-oriented fare...

Had some time today, so whipped this up, looking at mutlipliers for $50M+ grossing March films (excluding animation)

 

Going back through 2017, there's a fairly consistent range, with all but a few high and low end outliers falling in a 1.85-2.15x OWeek (~2.45-2.80x OW).  These values are comparable to summer, if you adjust for seasons by focusing on the full opening week multi. For example, ATSV had solid legs and a 2.24x OWeek (but 3.16x OW) , while a more average Transformers ROTB was 1.97x OWeek (2.57x OW), a smidge below the March average/median

 

For an $80M OW (~$105M OWeek) to leg out to $275M would be nearly identical to Lost City, which is head and shoulders above everything else, and I think there are a few reasons why that is not a comp I would lean on to set expectations for Dune II

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I would be somewhat surprised if this makes more than ATSV, at least domestically. 

 

I don't exect that boxoffice but I count on OS.

 

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

The problem with Spider-verse was its international gross. Like Dune made almost as much as Spiderverse did internationally. 250+450 is possible for Dune 2.

 

Yep, that's why I think DUNC2 has better shot to get to 700M. OS skewing makes it more likely.

[dudalb]

The Dune Part 2 Ticket Presales must flow....

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The Dune Part 2 Ticket Presales must flow....

 

and fight like demons

 

[SpiderByte]

Managed to squeeze in a decent seat for the early showing!

[von Kenni]

Loving the conversation here if Dune Part 2 is going to make $275m DOM and $700m WW. $500m WW would make me already smile and feeling confident to see Dune Messiah. $600m and over would be gravy and $700m or more just dreams from the deep. With that I'll listen Sardaukar 🎶  on repeat.