Halloween Weekend Thread | D:$15.53m HK: $8.5m NTTD: $7.82m

[narniadis]

Saturday will need to either be unusually strong or Halloween have no effect on Sunday to keep the Dune drop from the 60% mark. Either way its a solid hold for the film and all its detractors, just not the OMG amazing that some have argued for. 

Hopefully I will finally get to see it today. 

[narniadis]

Wanna see some fun with Halloween and Sunday holds from us old timers, look at 2008 when High school Musical 3 opened 🤣🤣 just an amazing Sunday in a bad way. 

*edit* that may have been weekend 2 for HSM3

Edited October 30, 2021 by narniadis

[Eric the Fall Guy]

34 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

16-17m weekend then, 60% drop, I guess 100m is gone.  

 

 

King’s Man > Matrix 4 at this rate. This is just sad

[Starphanluke]

2 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

King’s Man > Matrix 4 at this rate. This is just sad

I maintain that Matrix 4 will vastly underperform what people are expecting... not simply because of HBOMax, but also because it will be awful.

[Legion Again]

Think I played 40 95 in the winter game for dune. Next up — Richard under 23 total 👀

[von Kenni]

7 minutes ago, Utente said:

Is there still a chance that it'll hit 400M?

A very slim chance. E.g. China heading around 40 now, IF dom would be 110, then rest would need to be 250 which looks very unlikely now. If China & dom could get to 160, rest OS would need 240 which would need stellar legs in key markets (it has excellent legs in some markets currently, but still...) and Australia would need to deliver $20m (BR2049 had $10.3) after opening in Dec 3 but more probable to underperform due to so late opening. However, I don't know if Oscar nominations could be some wild card and have time to effect to stretch Dune more.

 

Probably 10% chance at the most to go over $400m. More probable China 40-45 + US 100-110 + OS 220-225 = 360-380.

[filmnerdjamie]

7 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

I maintain that Matrix 4 will vastly underperform what people are expecting... not simply because of HBOMax, but also because it will be awful.

 

They're not going to magically forget how much they hated Reloaded and Revolutions.

 

Look at what just happened to The Suicide Squad.

[Last Man Standing]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

They're not going to magically forget how much they hated Reloaded and Revolutions.

 

Look at what just happened to The Suicide Squad.

Tbf that was a loooong time ago. The entire trailer was basically just "hey remember how much you liked The Matrix? And Keanu, you remember that you like Keanu?"

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

They're not going to magically forget how much they hated Reloaded and Revolutions.

 

Look at what just happened to The Suicide Squad.

 

 

that’s like saying Jurassic World would bomb because of JP3

 

 

With a better release date (not five days after a Spider-Man film) and no Hbo max, Matrix 4 could have been huge 

[excel1]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

that’s like saying Jurassic World would bomb because of JP3

 

 

With a better release date (not five days after a Spider-Man film) and no Hbo max, Matrix 4 could have been huge 

 

Incredible how badly WB is botching these roll outs. 

[riveredge]

Damn. Finally Edgar Wright made something different and Last Night in Soho is actually a good movie anchored by strong performances from both Thomasin and Anya. 

 

I was hoping that it will go at least 8-10m. Oh well. 

 

 

[von Kenni]

55 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Wanna see some fun with Halloween and Sunday holds from us old timers, look at 2008 when High school Musical 3 opened 🤣🤣 just an amazing Sunday in a bad way. 

*edit* that may have been weekend 2 for HSM3

Friday, but still... -90% from week before 🤯

 

[ThomasNicole]

Matrix 4 trailer was absolutely huge in views, the only thing keeping this movie from being a smash is HBO Max + competition with NWH.

[Cmasterclay]

Matrix 4 well on its way to having the third most viewed and shared trailer of the year, and the trailer drop got massive mainstream buzz and plays great whenever I see it in theaters. Sadly, HBO Max and releasing five days after Spidey turned a 320m domestic hit into probably 140 with luck. Just an indefensible decision by everyone involved. 

[ACSlater]

They just need to push Matrix 4 out to FY22. Removes MAX as well. 

[von Kenni]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Matrix 4 well on its way to having the third most viewed and shared trailer of the year, and the trailer drop got massive mainstream buzz and plays great whenever I see it in theaters. Sadly, HBO Max and releasing five days after Spidey turned a 320m domestic hit into probably 140 with luck. Just an indefensible decision by everyone involved. 

Yeah, e.g. the difference between Dune opening with $41m /w HBO Max or $50m in itself isn't a big deal but what it does to the legs is. I compared on another thread simultaneous HBO Max releases in the US & UK and came to the conclusion that if Dune would have e.g. 2.7 multiplier now =  110m (41m OW) it would have 3.3 without HBO Max = 165m (50m OW). So if Dune would now total $100m it's safe to say that probably close to $50m was left on the table. 41 vs. 50 not so big but 100 vs. 150 yes.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Scott Mendelson still thinks Dune will finish at 108m

[von Kenni]

5 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Scott Mendelson still thinks Dune will finish at 108m

Well, he's probably not far. It's a probabilities game and I would still have more probable closer to 110 than 100. Before this weekend looking over 110 but need to update after weekend actuals. 

[narniadis]

24 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Friday, but still... -90% from week before 🤯

 

Whoops my memory is way off then on the day of week. Studios tend to hate Halloween hitting on the weekend and with good reasons. But makes for wonderful statistics discussions later. 

[Gavin Feng]

Looks like HBO Max release doesn’t hurt WB so much.