THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[EmpireCity]

The overreactions continue to be head shaking.  

[EmpireCity]

Recovery from an unprecedented once in a century global pandemic isn't going to be immediate.  The industry had to shift and change to something completely different and now it is in the process of shifting back.  People's habits were re-trained when theaters pretty much didn't exist for over a year.  

 

They are going to have to be re-trained back the other way.  It's going to happen and it is working, but it's going to take time.  The first thing that is going to happen is people get used to having theaters being the place to go to see new movies.  That has already started and will become the norm again in 2022.  

 

I would guess that around Memorial Day we start seeing more and more normalized numbers for all demographics.  A "full" recovery likely takes until roughly this time next year.  

[grim22]

This sounds like a joke, but who knows anymore with Leto

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

“People have to understand we’re still in recovery” talk always seems to happen around underperformances 🤔

 

 

[Maggie]

Just now, Eternal Legion said:

“People have to understand we’re still in recovery” talk always seems to happen around underperformances 🤔

 

 

It's true tho. People have been accustomed to watch movies at home this year (especially the adult dramas). It will take a while to get them outta house to a cinema again. I don't know if Memorial Day weekend will be the true test tho

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

It's true tho. People have been accustomed to watch movies at home this year (especially the adult dramas). It will take a while to get them outta house to a cinema again. I don't know if Memorial Day weekend will be the true test tho

When people decide they don’t want to come out to see certain products that much: people are still scared, they’re accustomed to streaming, yadda yadda, structural factors fully explain this miss

When people decide they do want to come out to see certain other products: *crickets*   
 

Like sure, there is some truth to the fact that there are still structural challenges, but even within a structurally challenged market you still have movies doing better or worse than expected. The existence of the former means you can’t just trot out the structural stuff to explain away the latter.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[TwoMisfits]

It's true were in recovery, and it's true we'll take longer than wanted to recover...

 

But, it can also be true that the numbers suck...they may be explainable, but factually, they still are bad for production money spent...

 

Disney did not put out Encanto as a full theatrical to go under The Good Dinosaur and also under Ghostbusters from just last weekend...

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

When people decide they don’t want to come out to see certain products that much: people are still scared, they’re accustomed to streaming, yadda yadda, structural factors fully explain this miss

When people decide they do want to come out to see certain other products: *crickets*   
 

Like sure, there is some truth to the fact that there are still structural challenges, but even within a structurally challenged market you still have movies doing better or worse than expected. The existence of the former means you can’t just trot out the structural stuff to explain away the latter.

I see what you say, but the target audience for the adult dramas like Gucci still have not come back, in fact Gucci might be the most attended adult drama, so no examples of "movies doing better than expected"

 

Encanto, kids again are not back.

[TiagoRodrigues]

21 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

“People have to understand we’re still in recovery” talk always seems to happen around underperformances 🤔

 

That quote can be used for almost every movie because if we consider what all studios expected these movies to do when budgets were attributed before the pandemic all movies are underperforming. 

 

If you had told marvel how Black Widow, Shang Chi and Eternals would do they wouldn't believe you. Hell even No Time To Die is losing money even as the biggest Hollywood movie of the year so far. 

 

I can only imagine how much money was spent on marketing for movies like NTTD and Black Widow. They had like 3 different release dates, multiple marketing campaigns, trailers, posters spread all over the place since early 2020. 

 

But not everything is doom and gloom. We're just used at much bigger numbers and some users here are clearly having a hard time adapting to this new reality. As someone said before, things wil get better. 

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

When people decide they don’t want to come out to see certain products that much: people are still scared, they’re accustomed to streaming, yadda yadda, structural factors fully explain this miss

When people decide they do want to come out to see certain other products: *crickets*   
 

Like sure, there is some truth to the fact that there are still structural challenges, but even within a structurally challenged market you still have movies doing better or worse than expected. The existence of the former means you can’t just trot out the structural stuff to explain away the latter.

 

You actually really can though, because context is everything and it is valid.  

 

We could do this same thing the other way though, when movies exceed all expectations like Venom 2, suddenly the chicken little stuff disappears.  

 

Certain movies and demographics are doing great or even better than before.  Certain movies and demographics aren't yet and are going to take more time.  

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's true were in recovery, and it's true we'll take longer than wanted to recover...

 

But, it can also be true that the numbers suck...they may be explainable, but factually, they still are bad for production money spent...

 

Disney did not put out Encanto as a full theatrical to go under The Good Dinosaur and also under Ghostbusters from just last weekend...

 

 Disney should have actually marketed the movie on a normal level if they wanted better numbers.  

 

With that said, they are going to make a good amount of money off the movie theatrically and then they get to put it on their streaming service as a marketing spend in 30 days.  

 

Win win  for them.  

 

 

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

 

That quote can be used for almost every movie because if we consider what all studios expected these movies to do when budgets were attributed before the pandemic all movies are underperforming. 

 

If you had told marvel how Black Widow, Shang Chi and Eternals would do they wouldn't believe you. Hell even No Time To Die is losing money even as the biggest Hollywood movie of the year so far. 

 

I can only imagine how much money was spent on marketing for movies like NTTD and Black Widow. They had like 3 different release dates, multiple marketing campaigns, trailers, posters spread all over the place since early 2020. 

 

But not everything is doom and gloom. We're just used at much bigger numbers and some users here are clearly having a hard time adapting to this new reality. As someone said before, things wil get better. 

 

The only thing I will take exception with here is that NTTD is losing money.  It isn't.  In fact, it is going to make a nice healthy profit for MGM/UA.  They also don't really care because Amazon is giving them $9b sooner than later.  

[Darth Lehnsherr]

We'll see what Disney thinks about Encanto's performance by seeing if they decide to change Turning Red's release plan.

 

I think we're still in recovery mode in the sense audiences are alot more picker to choose which movies to come to the cinemas and especially families. Disney for the past 18 months has been fine with their animated films debuting on Disney+ and with Encanto only having 30 days before Disney+ I can see some families feeling fine to wait. 

 

Now if it was Frozen 3 then sure different story but not all BO successes should be blockbuster sequels.

[EmpireCity]

One last point that people also need to adjust in their minds is that studios really aren't nearly as concerned with budgets at this point.  Content is king, and they need to produce it no matter what.  They need a never ending stream of it.  

 

Movies don't need to make money or even break even in theatrical release going forward.  If anything, theatrical is being seen as a way to recover a nice chunk of the budget while on the back end the streaming revenue more than makes up for everything.  

 

It is also why Disney isn't pushing nearly as hard to get into China, which is actually a great thing.  It has been shameful how much studios were changing their content to fit the narrative of an evil communist government.  With the streaming revenue, they don't need to suck up to China as much.  

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

We'll see what Disney thinks about Encanto's performance by seeing if they decide to change Turning Red's release plan.

 

I think we're still in recovery mode in the sense audiences are alot more picker to choose which movies to come to the cinemas and especially families. Disney for the past 18 months has been fine with their animated films debuting on Disney+ and with Encanto only having 30 days before Disney+ I can see some families feeling fine to wait. 

 

Now if it was Frozen 3 then sure different story but not all BO successes should be blockbuster sequels.

 

Disney isn't changing anything about Turning Red's release plan.  They are full on theatrical in 2022.  

[Cmasterclay]

Nothing is going to be full on theatrical in 2022 if we do not take very serious and emergency action on this. Have read quite a bit about it over last two days but Topol always sums up best.

 

 

[TiagoRodrigues]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

The only thing I will take exception with here is that NTTD is losing money.  It isn't.  In fact, it is going to make a nice healthy profit for MGM/UA.  They also don't really care because Amazon is giving them $9b sooner than later.  

 

I read that a few days ago somewhere. Multiple articles written about it and I also thought it was weird. Glad its a hit! 

[grim22]

25 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Nothing is going to be full on theatrical in 2022 if we do not take very serious and emergency action on this. Have read quite a bit about it over last two days but Topol always sums up best.

 

 

We are all screwed. Hopefully this new variant can be controlled, else Africa will be a graveyard. Might not end up affecting America and Asia as much, but definite concern for Europe.

 

Getting my booster tomorrow, my parents got theirs already.

 

 

 

[Barnack]

32 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Movies don't need to make money or even break even in theatrical release going forward.  If anything, theatrical is being seen as a way to recover a nice chunk of the budget while on the back end the streaming revenue more than makes up for everything.  

 

Which would be more than the DVD era, From 2007 to 2014 of 29.5 billions Sony made from movies 10.25 came from theater.

 

Theatrical release cost during that period (marketing+prints+wpf/freight and others) was of 11.01 billion it costed them 107% them their rental, it was not that the movie was not profitable, the movie release did not even pay for itself, if we forget how much value for the next windows theatrical release give a movie.

 

The movie breaking even in theatrical release has been an exceptional event for a very long time.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

It has been shameful how much studios were changing their content to fit the narrative of an evil communist government.  With the streaming revenue, they don't need to suck up to China as much.  

This. It’s time for studios to stop pandering to that backwards countries. 
 

And any of the countries that asked for the gay kiss to be removed from Eternals. 
 

They don’t deserve content.