The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	395	186	0	6	0
Seats Added	44,200	20,751	0	508	0
Seats Sold	16,191	12,055	8,750	6,658	6,123
6/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,944	132,107	833,943	15.84%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	25	123	281
ATP
$17.13

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	$14.1	$13.2	$10.0	$9.5	$10.3	$10.8	$10.9
T-3	$14.1	$13.2	$9.6	$9.2	$9.8	$10.4	$10.6
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[keysersoze123]

Ouch

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ouch

Seem like review effect has kick in

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos might be time to bring the over indexing comps. The one I remember is Fantastic Beasts 3.

[Cooper Legion]

Dinosaur fans have a superstitious fear of Thursday, they are all showing up Friday instead 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont want to speak for Shawn but he is not going by presales. Its more about details of industry tracking which is around Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice numbers across different demos. If that is consistent he would go with his prediction. Sometimes you are right and sometimes you are off(both too high or low). Example would be Eternals. Early tracking was higher than actuals as though there was initial awareness, final week interest waned post reviews. 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

This close to release, presales are definitely in consideration. The long range reports lean on models more heavily influenced by other tracking metrics similar to what you mentioned plus social imprints, expected reception, etc., especially if a film isn't selling tickets yet since that's all there is to go on.

 

But as release gets closer for everything, presales *usually* take a much heavier weight (though not 100%, depending on the movie) alongside other considerations in whatever model the final forecast is based on during the week of opening.

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ouch

It's generally to be expected. Tuesday is usually not the day for big bumps (unless there is some Atom deal), that tends to be Sunday and Monday which failed to impress. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Yandereprime101189]

It would be hilariously sad if Lightyear actually underwhelmed, especially with how Pixar has been pushing for its films to have theatrical releases and not Disney+ only debuts.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

It would be hilariously sad if Lightyear actually underwhelmed, especially with how Pixar has been pushing for its films to have theatrical releases and not Disney+ only debuts.

I think there are still chances for LY since the review hasn’t out yet and people maybe still confused about what is on Disney+ and what is not. If indeed the movie underperform despite all the right ingredients , we may have to start thinking if Disney+ strategy has a long term impairment effect to Pixar brand as big screen experience.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It's generally to be expected. Tuesday is usually not the day for big bumps (unless there is some Atom deal), that tends to be Sunday and Monday which failed to impress. 

I think TUE and WED both get similar bump on each day. THU doubles WED mostly.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I think TUE and WED both get similar bump on each day. THU doubles WED mostly.

Wed has a bump at night I think. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Feels like Lightyear never received proper buzz (who pun).

 

And yeah, the Disney+ stigma/perception/confusion probably didn't help. 

[motionpic05]

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, motionpic05 said:

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

Jurassic World: $85 million

Lightyear: $38 million

[motionpic05]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jurassic World: $85 million

Lightyear: $38 million

Eek!!!! If that happens, both are toast.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

 

JWD: $140 million

Lightyear: $90 million

[filmlover]

This potential underperformance is what they get for not inviting everyone's favorite character in the entire franchise back for the grand finale in a starring role. Guess who's having the last laugh?

 

[Eric Prime]

Guys, we don't need all this Monday Morning Quarterbacking for Jurassic World and especially Lightyear. It's clogging up the thread.

[filmlover]

BTW Thor showtimes are starting to appear for that Thursday through the weekend (sorry if it's already been mentioned).

[MattW]

Guess I'll throw my prediction in to add the the heap.

Feels like JWD will open right in the range of fallen kingdom, 140s up to 150. 

Lightyear 80.