The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

 

Is this including EA?

Yes likely.

[Alex SciChannel]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes likely.

How much do you suppose the EA is for Elvis? I heard for TBP it is 300K but they didn't have as many showings.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone	PLF	3	143	143	774	18.48%	$15.43	$2,206.49
		Standard	34	611	611	3,374	18.11%	$11.64	$7,110.36
	Total		37	754	754	4,148	18.18%	$12.36	$9,316.85
	Elvis	PLF	6	427	427	1,086	39.32%	$15.43	$6,588.61
		Standard	42	960	960	4,508	21.30%	$12.15	$11,659.27
	Total		48	1,387	1,387	5,594	24.79%	$13.16	$18,247.88

 

Elvis T-0 comps

 - FB3 - .688x (4.13m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .27x (3.99m)

 - Sonic 2 - .686x (3.418m)

 - Morbius - .7x (4.01m)

 - JW3 - .155x (2.79m)

 

I included a lot of comps because I don't really have anything really close.  That being said, I think things are looking good for something in the high 3s for true Thursday.  It looks like there was one EA show for the chain, but I didn't get a chance to look at it.  Last I saw, there were ~220 EA shows total for Elvis; it'd be pretty neat if EA pushed this over 4m!  I'll put my true Thu prediction at 3.8m

 

Black Phone T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .383x (2.18m)

 - Northman - 3.26x (4.41m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 2.18x (3.28m)

 - FB3 - .374x (2.25m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .1x (1.77m)

 - DS2 - .048x (1.71m)

 

Same story here but probably even worse on comps.  Looking at it against every movie I've tracked the majority are in the high 1s and low 2s (with the exceptions being movies <200 tickets sold).  I think I'll go with 1.9m for true Thursday.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	PLF	14	843	843	3,074	27.42%	$14.14	$11,917.76
		Standard	67	1,597	1,597	7,549	21.16%	$10.67	$17,032.29
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Fri)	N	43	1,288	1,288	4,299	29.96%	$11.79	$15,181.36
		Y	32	255	255	3,140	8.12%	$9.08	$2,314.14
	Total		75	1,543	1,543	7,439	20.74%	$11.34	$17,495.50
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	N	38	1,475	1,475	4,921	29.97%	$13.22	$19,494.48
		Y	43	965	965	5,702	16.92%	$9.80	$9,455.57
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

Ah the pains of not having any good comps.  Alas.   There was only one movie that comped Elvis true Thursday below 3m... JW3 (2.8m).  If we're looking at 600k of EA then this over-indexed in Santikos on scale with dinos.   Black Phone on the other hand under-indexed here. There were a few outliers with far fewer sales, but for the most part. 

 

Elvis Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .989x (11.48m)

 - TG2 - .289x (9.45m)

 - Batman - .248x (8.68m)

 - FB3 - .734x (6.1m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Black Phone Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .625x (7.26m)

 - TG2 - .183x (5.98m)

 - Batman - .157x (5.49m)

 

 - FB3 - .464x (3.86m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Adjusted comps

 

Elvis

 - Morbius - 8.29m

 - TG2 - 6.87m

 - Batman - 7.71m

 - FB3 - 4.28m

 - JW3 - 7.06m

 

Gonna take the average of these and go with 6.85m for true Friday

 

Black Phone

 - Morbius - 8.98m

 - TG2 - 7.19m

 - Batman - 7.21m

 - FB3 - 4.64m

 - JW3 - 7.65m

 

Without great comps, going with the average here too: 7.13m for true Friday.

[LegendaryBen]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	PLF	14	843	843	3,074	27.42%	$14.14	$11,917.76
		Standard	67	1,597	1,597	7,549	21.16%	$10.67	$17,032.29
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Fri)	N	43	1,288	1,288	4,299	29.96%	$11.79	$15,181.36
		Y	32	255	255	3,140	8.12%	$9.08	$2,314.14
	Total		75	1,543	1,543	7,439	20.74%	$11.34	$17,495.50
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	N	38	1,475	1,475	4,921	29.97%	$13.22	$19,494.48
		Y	43	965	965	5,702	16.92%	$9.80	$9,455.57
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

Ah the pains of not having any good comps.  Alas.   There was only one movie that comped Elvis true Thursday below 3m... JW3 (2.8m).  If we're looking at 600k of EA then this over-indexed in Santikos on scale with dinos.   Black Phone on the other hand under-indexed here. There were a few outliers with far fewer sales, but for the most part. 

 

Elvis Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .989x (11.48m)

 - TG2 - .289x (9.45m)

 - Batman - .248x (8.68m)

 - FB3 - .734x (6.1m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Black Phone Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .625x (7.26m)

 - TG2 - .183x (5.98m)

 - Batman - .157x (5.49m)

 

 - FB3 - .464x (3.86m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Adjusted comps

 

Elvis

 - Morbius - 8.29m

 - TG2 - 6.87m

 - Batman - 7.71m

 - FB3 - 4.28m

 - JW3 - 7.06m

 

Gonna take the average of these and go with 6.85m for true Friday

 

Black Phone

 - Morbius - 8.98m

 - TG2 - 7.19m

 - Batman - 7.21m

 - FB3 - 4.64m

 - JW3 - 7.65m

 

Without great comps, going with the average here too: 7.13m for true Friday.

As usual, thank you for your hard work. Is it possible Elvis may be able to do $10m for a True Friday if other theaters in other states do much better?

Edited June 24, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Gonna take the average of these and go with 6.85m for true Friday

That would be horrifically bad. OW would be below $25M at that point.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

That would be horrifically bad. OW would be below $25M at that point.

 

Santikos spend all their money on the dinos. Now theres no money left for Elvis.

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

That would be horrifically bad. OW would be below $25M at that point.

If other states are doing much better than Santikos, it could be higher. Katniss did adjust the comps down by 30% on average. There's still hope. However, it would be terrible if Elvis hits below that mark.

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

 

Gonna take the average of these and go with 6.85m for true Friday

.

Are we having another NTTD? A nice presale run suddenly turn meh going into its opening.

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

Are we having another NTTD? A nice presale run suddenly turn meh going into its opening.

That would be horrible and TBP might upset it this weekend if other states perform on par or worse than Santikos.

[keysersoze123]

There is no way it goes that low. its obviously underperforming in that market and that happens for these movies. They are not going to do well everywhere. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Remember, this is just presales in one chain.  Doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme.

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

Remember, this is just presales in one chain.  Doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme.

Thanks for providing your hard work. It's better to be keep your expectations low than way too high and set up for disappointment.

[EmpireCity]

Santikos skews heavily to kids films.  It also has locations surrounded by dine in theaters that draw far more adults.  

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto ontario t-14

 

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	148	6034	24311	30345	0.1988
Fri	20	278	3590	36339	39929	0.0899

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way it goes that low. its obviously underperforming in that market and that happens for these movies. They are not going to do well everywhere. 

Yes, but the method that @katnisscinnaplex uses accounts for market performance, by using the $/ticket ratio from Thursday's known totals to extrapolate Friday's gross from a given sales total

 

However, preview market performance does not necessarily hold constant over the weekend, and we could be (and I suspect we are) seeing a situation where a younger demo in the Santikos markets were more likely to watch a Thur evening show and/or are under-performing even more on Friday, not having as many olds to bolster the daytime sales that are much stronger elsewhere (see matinee/evening split).  And with no great, older-skewing comp in the pool to account for that disparity between Thu and Fri, the extrapolation won't be predictive, and we'll see much higher tFri total

[PenguinHyphy]

16 hours ago, Cap said:

 

As someone who spent a lot of time tracking Lincoln Square before the pandemic, it is misguided to compare their Friday tickets sales to really any other theater (With the exception of maybe like the Arclight or Disney springs). The IMAX is the premium screen not only in NYC but Pretty much the entire East Coast. It’s a pilgrimage theater. People go specifically to see films at that IMAX screen, and it tends to get the most devoted of fans rushing out.

 

 

 

We absolutely don’t do this here. So I would refrain from this type of behavior when you post going forward.

 

I posted about Thursday, and do not give me any suggestions about behavior if you are not going to do the same for the person who instigated it and antagonized the post                                                    

Edited June 24, 2022 by PenguinHyphy

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1025

3809

26.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1008

4985

20.22%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4627	804	37793	12.24%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3288
Cinemarks sold	649
Regals sold	372
Harkins sold	318

 

1.63x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (31.46M)

0.635x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (22.87M)

0.396x NWH T-14 (19.81M)

 

The 6 day sales of Doctor Strange at this point was 803. If Thor continues to closely follow it, then the comp will end up around 30M.

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1047

3809

27.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1032

4985

20.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4759	132	37793	12.59%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3375
Cinemarks sold	663
Regals sold	386
Harkins sold	335

 

1.55x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (29.84M)

0.389x NWH T-13 (19.44M)

 

No Doctor Strange or Batman comps today

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex [6 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(190 showings): 4349(+928)/47563

1.37x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (26.32M)

0.545x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (19.61M) [+1119]

0.261x NWH T-14 (13.06M)

 

T-15 Friday(258 showings): 2371(+650)/67683

0.787x Top Gun Maverick T-15 (25.78M)

0.551x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (30.14M) [+881]

0.207x NWH T-15 (14.87M)

 

T-16 Saturday(264 showings): 1155(+327)/69227

0.606x Top Gun Maverick T-16 (23.03M)

0.473x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (27.33M) [+589]

0.211x NWH T-16 (15.62M)

 

T-17 Sunday(253 showings): 430(+175)/68879

0.973x Top Gun Maverick T-17 (35.68M)

0.734x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (28.54M) [+140]

0.398x NWH T-17 (25.53M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-13 Thursday(190 showings): 4515(+166)/47563

1.29x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (24.84M)

0.264x NWH T-13 (13.18M)

 

T-14 Friday(258 showings): 2507(+136)/67683

0.754x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (24.69M)

0.206x NWH T-14 (14.84M)

 

T-15 Saturday(264 showings): 1217(+62)/69227

0.567x Top Gun Maverick T-15 (21.56M)

0.203x NWH T-15 (15.04M)

 

T-16 Sunday(253 showings): 471(+41)/68879

0.933x Top Gun Maverick T-16 (34.21M)

0.390x NWH T-16 (25.02M)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse [6 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(168 showings): 11312(+1387)/24270 ATP: $15.20

0.707x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (25.46M) [+1334]

0.482x NWH T-14 (24.12M)

 

T-15 Friday(230 showings): 9109(+1808)/33499 ATP: $15.31

0.653x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (35.74M) [+1973]

0.471x NWH T-15 (33.90M)

 

T-16 Saturday(239 showings): 8258(+1662)/34589 ATP: $14.65

0.571x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (33.01M) [+2290]

0.475x NWH T-16 (35.14M)

 

T-17 Sunday(220 showings): 4496(+1288)/32457 ATP: $14.24

0.653x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (25.41M) [+1432]

0.563x NWH T-17 (36.13M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(168 showings): 11825(+513)/25319 ATP: $15.22

0.493x NWH T-13 (24.63M)

 

T-14 Friday(230 showings): 9528(+419)/34490 ATP: $15.30

0.477x NWH T-14 (34.33M)

 

T-15 Saturday(239 showings): 8820(+562)/36137 ATP: $14.67

0.480x NWH T-15 (35.50M)

 

T-16 Sunday(220 showings): 4751(+255)/33448 ATP: $14.23

0.550x NWH T-16 (35.29M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]