The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Anxious]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:38 AM, Eric Presley said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	177	12440	1.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	181	12632	1.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

[M37]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	PLF	14	55	898	3,074	29.21%	$13.41	$12,039.24
		Standard	68	11	1,608	7,605	21.14%	$10.23	$16,456.81
	Total		82	66	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Sat)	N	43	742	742	4,309	17.22%	$11.95	$8,863.80
		Y	30	486	486	3,005	16.17%	$8.82	$4,284.36
	Total		73	1,228	1,228	7,314	16.79%	$10.71	$13,148.16
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	N	38	1,001	1,001	4,921	20.34%	$13.32	$13,337.41
		Y	44	1,505	1,505	5,758	26.14%	$10.07	$15,158.64
	Total		82	2,506	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

Just gonna start off with a disclaimer again: I do not have good comps for these movies and this is a small sample size so take these numbers with a grain of salt.  If you want better representation then step up and start tracking another area!

 

Alright, back to business.  Elvis ATP has dropped a little with the majority of presales being for matinee shows.  I'm sure that's expected with the older crowd, but don't be surprised if we get a good early number for Elvis that doesn't come to fruition.  Black Phone only had a few PLF shows for previews, but none for the weekend.

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .28x (10.64m)

 - Batman - .219x (9.48m)

- JW3 - .162x (7.59m)

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .137x (5.22m)

 - Batman - .107x (4.64m)

- JW3 - .079x (3.72m)

 

Comps adjusted by Friday comps ratios (using ECs latest estimates)

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 8.17m

 - Batman - 7.92m

- JW3 - 8.09m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 8.1m

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 6.33m

 - Batman - 6.14m

- JW3 - 6.27m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 6.25m

The way I would look at the Elvis numbers is that the Sat PS gross for Santikos at this time is essentially even with Fri (both $28K), and since walkups generally increase as the weekend wears on, would peg Sat with a floor of the $9.25 TFri, probably higher. How much higher can't say, but that's still above your $8.1M average

 

Black Phone is a messier, because there is a clear drop-off in sales from Fri to Sat

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

The way I would look at the Elvis numbers is that the Sat PS gross for Santikos at this time is essentially even with Fri (both $28K), and since walkups generally increase as the weekend wears on, would peg Sat with a floor of the $9.25 TFri, probably higher. How much higher can't say, but that's still above your $8.1M average

 

Black Phone is a messier, because there is a clear drop-off in sales from Fri to Sat

Even if that were to happen, TBP can still make it to at least $70m, though I'm thinking a $7.5m Saturday (slight increase vs. True Friday). Unless it theaters correlate well with Santikos, I can't see it dropping 40% today.

Edited June 25, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[M37]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I was checking the sales for next week yesterday at many popular locations and...they're not looking great, to put it kindly. Even Universal Orlando's theater is posting relatively soft sales given that's the one location where it would be destined to do gangbusters (Jurassic World was a presales hit there just weeks ago, unsurprisingly). Gonna need some nice walk-ups to shake the aura of impending underperformance.

Generally, the younger the target audience, the later in the sales period tickets are purchased (demographics also a factor too). Since Minions (DM) is a newer franchise, it doesn't have the nostalgia/adult pull of a LY, Ghostbusters, or even somewhat Sonic, so it will be a later take-off. Still looking to me like its on pace to have a preview in the neighborhood of Sonic, won't be surprised with $7 Thur and $70M weekend

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

$10.2M for TBP for $23M+ weekend

 

Edit wrong thread

Edited June 25, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[YM!]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I was checking the sales for next week yesterday at many popular locations and...they're not looking great, to put it kindly. Even Universal Orlando's theater is posting relatively soft sales given that's the one location where it would be destined to do gangbusters (Jurassic World was a presales hit there just weeks ago, unsurprisingly). Gonna need some nice walk-ups to shake the aura of impending underperformance.

Tbh Minions or Illumination films for that matter skew more kid friendly and are more walkup, so long as it’s like at least 85% of Lightyear in most comparisons, it should outopen it.

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-13 (no comps)

 

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	148	6195	24273	30468	0.2033
Fri	20	278	3830	36238	40068	0.0955

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Lightyear

SW/Toronto Ontario T-6

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	329	23548	23877	0.0137
Fri	15	84	417	22197	22614	0.0184

 

Comp OD Friday w with thurs  (US/Canada and Canada only). And advisory note this is for 20 theatres in Ontario Only, so obviously not a be all end all.

 

Lightyear (US/CA) x1.409 at 20 (28 million)

Canada Only         X1.409 at .750 (1.4 Million)

 

Hopefully as I get more films done I can get more comps

 

 

 

 

I presume this is Minions 2, otherwise it's a little late to be doing a T-6 comp for Lightyear.

 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I presume this is Minions 2, otherwise it's a little late to be doing a T-6 comp for Lightyear.

 

Ummmm....yea....I mean Wait! This is a Lightyear remake from 20 years in the future, yea that's it! 

 

Its been edited. Thank you for pointing that out

Edited June 25, 2022 by Tinalera

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1047

3809

27.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1032

4985

20.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4759	132	37793	12.59%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3375
Cinemarks sold	663
Regals sold	386
Harkins sold	335

 

1.55x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (29.84M)

0.389x NWH T-13 (19.44M)

 

No Doctor Strange or Batman comps today

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1069

3809

28.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1057

4985

21.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4941	182	37793	13.07%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3474
Cinemarks sold	703
Regals sold	409
Harkins sold	355

 

0.390x NWH T-12 (19.50M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-13 Thursday(190 showings): 4515(+166)/47563

1.29x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (24.84M)

0.264x NWH T-13 (13.18M)

 

T-14 Friday(258 showings): 2507(+136)/67683

0.754x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (24.69M)

0.206x NWH T-14 (14.84M)

 

T-15 Saturday(264 showings): 1217(+62)/69227

0.567x Top Gun Maverick T-15 (21.56M)

0.203x NWH T-15 (15.04M)

 

T-16 Sunday(253 showings): 471(+41)/68879

0.933x Top Gun Maverick T-16 (34.21M)

0.390x NWH T-16 (25.02M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-12 Thursday(190 showings): 4747(+232)/47563

0.271x NWH T-12 (13.55M)

 

T-13 Friday(258 showings): 2662(+155)/67683

0.211x NWH T-13 (15.17M)

 

T-14 Saturday(264 showings): 1358(+141)/69227

0.212x NWH T-14 (15.65M)

 

T-15 Sunday(253 showings): 518(+47)/68879

0.375x NWH T-15 (24.09M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(168 showings): 11825(+513)/25319 ATP: $15.22

0.493x NWH T-13 (24.63M)

 

T-14 Friday(230 showings): 9528(+419)/34490 ATP: $15.30

0.477x NWH T-14 (34.33M)

 

T-15 Saturday(239 showings): 8820(+562)/36137 ATP: $14.67

0.480x NWH T-15 (35.50M)

 

T-16 Sunday(220 showings): 4751(+255)/33448 ATP: $14.23

0.550x NWH T-16 (35.29M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-12 Thursday(168 showings): 12172(+347)/25319 ATP: $15.20

0.497x NWH T-12 (24.85M)

 

T-13 Friday(230 showings): 9891(+363)/34490 ATP: $15.30

0.473x NWH T-13 (34.04M)

 

T-14 Saturday(239 showings): 9273(+453)/36137 ATP: $14.68

0.474x NWH T-14 (35.04M)

 

T-15 Sunday(220 showings): 5060(+309)/33448 ATP: $14.24

0.535x NWH T-15 (34.36M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Minions 2 Marcus (T-5)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 613 (+2 since Tuesday)

Seats Sold: 3203/97271 (+566 since Tuesday)

 

Friday:

Showings: 893 (-1 since Tuesday)*

Seats Sold: 4732/141112 (+1079 since Tuesday)

 

A few showings are throwing errors even on manual checks, which is why the number of tracked showings for Friday decreased. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Thor Love and Thunder Marcus (T-12)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 885 (+3 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 21638/132270 (+1034 since Thurs night)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391 (+6 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 13162/209593 (+879 since Thurs night)

 

 

Data from this morning, around 9am Central, so the pace is about 33ish hours of sales (but since early morning hours are low sales, it won't be too different from a 24h pace).

Edited June 25, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

I think Alpha may have changed something with their seat maps because my current run is returning all errors.

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I think Alpha may have changed something with their seat maps because my current run is returning all errors.

$0 daily pace, $0 cume, $0 previews. Rip taika

[motionpic05]

Anyone else kinda think NOPE is looking to underperform?

Ticket sales seem kinda slow- I feel like it will fall closer to Get Out's OW than Us

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Anyone else kinda think NOPE is looking to underperform?

Ticket sales seem kinda slow- I feel like it will fall closer to Get Out's OW than Us

I was thinking 50 for 35 would still be good. It's an original IP. Would be biggest original opening since 2019 (1917 in Jan 2020 isn't original). The opening for Us made it the biggest opening original film ever, I think? And blew past expectations since it was Peele's Get Out followup and heavily marketed as a horror. It's been 3 years and Us had very divisive audience reception which probably has diminished Peele's brand slightly. 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Thor Love and Thunder Marcus (T-12)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 885 (+3 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 21638/132270 (+1034 since Thurs night)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391 (+6 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 13162/209593 (+879 since Thurs night)

 

 

Data from this morning, around 9am Central, so the pace is about 33ish hours of sales (but since early morning hours are low sales, it won't be too different from a 24h pace).

So really its more of a slightly late T-13 checkpoint rather than T-12?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

So really its more of a slightly late T-13 checkpoint rather than T-12?

Yes, that's the better way to interpret it. Tomorrow's data will be similar, though since I have triggered the run already, I'll mark it as T-12 as well. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Menor Reborn