The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/5/2022 at 1:27 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
517	122,112	17,336	14.20%	$213,233	$12.30

 

+1523. Would be ehh normally but today being July 4th its fine. Now the all important period starts tomorrow. Should clear 3K+ day on Tuesday.

 

Comps

0.577x of DSitMoM admits - $20.9M

3.805x of Eternals admits - $36.1M

2.933x of Black Widow admits - $39.9M (adj for ON)

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-2 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
531	124,249	19,974	16.08%	$243,683	$12.20

 

+2638. Okayish day. All depend on Thursday now as with all the other recent titles had strong final day.

 

Comps

0.599x of DSitMoM admits - $21.7M

Edited July 6, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-9	Jax	6	18	11	62	1,884	3.29%
		Phx	5	15	0	19	1,833	1.04%
		Ral	7	22	6	119	2,101	5.66%
	Total		18	55	17	200	5,818	3.44%
Crawdads (EA)	T-8	Jax	1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
	Total		1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
Nope	T-16	Jax	7	51	5	79	8,591	0.92%
		Phx	6	20	4	118	4,344	2.72%
		Ral	8	25	4	95	3,411	2.79%
	Total		21	96	13	292	16,346	1.79%
Paws of Fury	T-9	Jax	6	24	0	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	0	10	1,628	0.61%
		Ral	7	20	5	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	5	33	5,904	0.56%
Thor 4	T-2	Jax	7	111	295	3,034	17,071	17.77%
		Phx	6	114	237	3,357	18,369	18.28%
		Ral	8	104	279	3,237	12,493	25.91%
	Total		21	329	811	9,628	47,933	20.09%

 

Crawdads T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .7x (2.25m)

 - NTTD - .38x (1.97m)

 - Dune - .292x (1.49m)

 

Paws of Fury T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - .805x (926k)

 

Nope T-16 comps

 - NTTD - .896x (4.66m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.25x (5.14m)

 - F9 - .579x (4.11m)

 

Thor 4 T-2 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .567x (20.43m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.54x (27.01m)

 - No Way Home - .376x (18.8m)

 - Black Widow - 2.36x (31.1m)

 - JW3 - 1.64x (29.58m)

 

As everyone has mentioned, sales were expected to be down due to the Monday holiday.  Expecting a huge day today though.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-8	Jax	6	18	3	65	1,884	3.45%
		Phx	5	15	5	24	1,833	1.31%
		Ral	7	22	11	130	2,101	6.19%
ATP: 12.28	Total		18	55	19	219	5,818	3.76%
Crawdads (EA)	T-7	Jax	1	1	5	22	86	25.58%
	Total		1	1	5	22	86	25.58%
Nope	T-15	Jax	7	50	5	84	8,422	1.00%
		Phx	6	20	1	119	4,344	2.74%
		Ral	8	25	5	100	3,411	2.93%
	Total		21	95	11	303	16,177	1.87%
Paws of Fury	T-8	Jax	6	24	0	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	1	11	1,628	0.68%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
ATP: 11.18	Total		18	60	1	34	5,904	0.58%
Thor 4	T-1	Jax	7	151	379	3,413	20,225	16.88%
		Phx	7	139	590	3,947	19,892	19.84%
		Ral	8	113	475	3,712	13,018	28.51%
ATP: 14.24	Total		22	403	1,444	11,072	53,135	20.84%

 

Crawdads T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .69x (2.2m)

 - NTTD - .37x (1.93m)

 - Dune - .295x (1.5m)

 

Paws of Fury T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - .618x (711k)

 - Lightyear - .109x (534k)

 

Nope T-15 comps

 - NTTD - .856x (4.45m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.28x (5.24m)

 - F9 - .56x (3.98m)

 

Thor 4 T-1 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .604x (21.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.507x (26.53m)

 - No Way Home - .397x (19.85m)

 - Black Widow - 2.37x (31.27m)

 - JW3 - 1.61x (28.95m)

 

Has anyone else noticed prices dropping for Thor?  I've been seeing drop in MTC1 and 2 of ~$1 per show.  I haven't updated my ATP since I think most of the tickets were purchased at the higher price. I'm not 100% when the price changes went into effect though since I don't usually look at them after I record them at the beginning of tracking.

[TwoMisfits]

So Thor Cinemark weakness and Minion explosion are playing out.  My 1st Cinemark FINALLY set its schedule (and the 2nd, which prebooked 5 screens for Thor is still pending), and it went from 3 screens to just 4 screens for Thor.  This is 19 showings total, and 4 of those are PLF.  Needless to say, that is under the MOM and Spidey set.  

 

Conversely, Minions had 1 screen it was selling and now picked up 2 more, so it has 3 screens and 16 showings this weekend, with 2 showings as PLF.

 

We'll see if something similar happens at my other Cinemark...

 

PS - They kept TGM, Elvis, Black Phone, JWD on 1 screen each and have ALREADY dropped Lightyear to a 1/2 screen (2 showings) with a foreign film sharing.  Lightyear is gone next week when Paws arrives.

Edited July 6, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

So it appears Tuesday was a day of market correction: the high volume advance sale samples (Drafthouse, Alpha) came down vs Dr Strange, the lower volume samples came up, and Denver and Sacto continue to trek near the unweighted average. One caveat might be capacity, in that with the Monday holiday, theaters were later adding additional Thursday shows than usual, which may have kept a lid on sales in higher volume markets, as people wait for better seats to open up

 

With that said, seems quite plausible that final totals will converge into (or at least move close to) the range shown.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4	PLF	57	277	4,755	11,672	40.74%	$15.72	$74,735.42
		Standard	87	418	3,510	11,439	30.68%	$11.67	$40,952.22
	Thor 4 Total		144	695	8,265	23,111	35.76%	$14.00	$115,687.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4	N	103	473	6,395	16,531	38.68%	$14.73	$94,219.42
		Y	41	222	1,870	6,580	28.42%	$11.48	$21,468.22
	Thor 4 Total		144	695	8,265	23,111	35.76%	$14.00	$115,687.64

 

Thor T-2 comps

 - No Way Home - .462x (23.08m)

 - DS2 - .61x (21.95m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.48x (31.9m)

 - JW3 - 1.34x (24.11m)

 

Managed to increase against the MCU comps despite the holiday.  Expecting lots of shows to be added today.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	PLF	57	338	5,093	11,672	43.63%	$15.68	$79,836.01
		Standard	114	645	4,155	15,075	27.56%	$11.65	$48,393.63
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	N	128	711	7,106	19,746	35.99%	$14.63	$103,935.85
		Y	43	272	2,142	7,001	30.60%	$11.34	$24,293.79
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

Thor T-1 comps

 - No Way Home - .486x (24.32m)

 - DS2 - missed (~22.65m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.43x (30.87m)

 - JW3 - 1.27x (22.93m)

 

Hate that I missed the DS2 update; I'm plugging my closest guess compared to how others distributed the last two days of sales.   For comparison:

 

T-2 to T-0 increases

NWH - 10.94%

DS2 - 17.02%

Batman + EA - 41.62%

JW3 - 44.88%

TG2 - 41.39%

 

Thor 4 increased 11.89% from T-2 already with a day to go. If that gets to... 20% we're looking at the following comps

 

Hypothetical comps

NWH - 24.97m

Batman + EA - 27.04m

DS2 - 22.51m

JW3 - 19.97m

TG2 - 28.51m

Edited July 6, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex

[keysersoze123]

On 7/5/2022 at 7:19 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 previews - 148188/576944 2065274.42 3792 shows +13897 

 

This is 2 days of data. Just Eh. Let us see how much review bump we will see today. Seems another DS2 for now than ragnarok. 

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 previews - 166921/609257 2307067.32 4127 shows +18733

 

I thought it looked better yesterday evening after a partial run. But tuesday data also is not great. Let us see where it takes us today. 

[titanic2187]

Will Thor 4 suffer fourthquel curse? 

[TwoMisfits]

2nd Cinemark (which expanded during Covid to 14 screens) did not give Thor any more screens - so it gets 5 and 24 total showings (again under the 2 recent Marvel movies) - funny enough, 3 screens are PLF, so it has more PLF showings than regular ones - 14 to 11.

 

Minions gets 3 screens and 15 showings (all reg).  TGM gets 1.25 screens (an extra 9pm), Elvis/JWD/Black Phone keep 1.  Lightyear gets ONE showing as does Mr Malcolm's List (yeah that didn't last long) and 3 foreign films take the last few showings.

[Borobudur]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

2nd Cinemark (which expanded during Covid to 14 screens) did not give Thor any more screens - so it gets 5 and 24 total showings (again under the 2 recent Marvel movies) - funny enough, 3 screens are PLF, so it has more PLF showings than regular ones - 14 to 11.

 

Minions gets 3 screens and 15 showings (all reg).  TGM gets 1.25 screens (an extra 9pm), Elvis/JWD/Black Phone keep 1.  Lightyear gets ONE showing as does Mr Malcolm's List (yeah that didn't last long) and 3 foreign films take the last few showings.

Probably that is because the last few MCU movies were open in a more quiet weekend and market. Thor 4 is actually the first MCU film since pandemic to face the pre-pandemic-like competition from holdovers. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Probably that is because the last few MCU movies were open in a more quiet weekend and market. Thor 4 is actually the first MCU film since pandemic to face the pre-pandemic-like competition from holdovers. 

 

Yes, but no - if Minions didn't break out, it wouldn't have the 3rd screen - and they wouldn't have given the foreign films as many showings, either.  If they thought Thor was gonna be huge, they'd have found at least the 6th screen, and probably 6.5 b/c normally this one has between 30-34 showings before it sometimes adds extra late nights as the day goes...

[filmlover]

Thor is a relatively short movie at less than two hours (probably more like 2:20 when you factor in trailers) so theaters probably don't even need to overbook it with an insane amount of screens when they can get in a show every half hour quite easily. It's getting all of the big auditoriums everywhere this weekend anyway as the new Marvel movie so...

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Thor is a relatively short movie at less than two hours (probably more like 2:20 when you factor in trailers) so theaters probably don't even need to overbook it with an insane amount of screens when they can get in a show every half hour quite easily. It's getting all of the big auditoriums everywhere this weekend anyway as the new Marvel movie so...

 

Well, I thought that, so I checked the 5 screener (which probably regrets its initial set) - it actually stole one of the 2 big screens (the 250 seaters) for Minions, so Thor only gets 1 of 2.  Cinemark seems to be sticking to a little more caution that normal with Thor.  I wonder if that's not only b/c of Minions wild overperformance and zeitgeist, but maybe also Disney's "rules/revenue desires" for showing Thor (and Cinemark not wanting to burned again ala Eternals and Lightyear - and even to some degree MOM, b/c that got a wildly huge set)...

Edited July 6, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

$145-155m from Deadline and Variety. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	PLF	57	338	5,093	11,672	43.63%	$15.68	$79,836.01
		Standard	114	645	4,155	15,075	27.56%	$11.65	$48,393.63
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4	N	128	711	7,106	19,746	35.99%	$14.63	$103,935.85
		Y	43	272	2,142	7,001	30.60%	$11.34	$24,293.79
	Thor 4 Total		171	983	9,248	26,747	34.58%	$13.87	$128,229.64

 

Thor T-1 comps

 - No Way Home - .486x (24.32m)

 - DS2 - missed (~22.65m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.43x (30.87m)

 - JW3 - 1.27x (22.93m)

 

Hate that I missed the DS2 update; I'm plugging my closest guess compared to how others distributed the last two days of sales.   For comparison:

 

T-2 to T-0 increases

NWH - 10.94%

DS2 - 17.02%

Batman + EA - 41.62%

JW3 - 44.88%

TG2 - 41.39%

 

Thor 4 increased 11.89% from T-2 already with a day to go. If that gets to... 20% we're looking at the following comps

 

Hypothetical comps

NWH - 24.97m

Batman + EA - 27.04m

DS2 - 22.51m

JW3 - 19.97m

TG2 - 28.51m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	84	3,899	3,899	17,309	22.53%	$15.69	$61,181.94
		Standard	150	2,455	2,455	20,498	11.98%	$11.59	$28,455.66
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		234	6,354	6,354	37,807	16.81%	$14.11	$89,637.60

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	119	4,710	4,710	19,270	24.44%	$14.92	$70,293.92
		Y	115	1,644	1,644	18,537	8.87%	$11.77	$19,343.68
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		234	6,354	6,354	37,807	16.81%	$14.11	$89,637.60

 

Went ahead and took a look at Friday presales in Santikos.  I only have a few comps where I pulled Friday numbers on Wednesday:

 

Thor 4 Friday T-2 comps

 - NWH - .378x (27.19m)

 - Batman - .987x (34.55m)

 - TG2 - 1.295x (42.37m)

 - JW3 - .769x (31.97m)

 - DS2 - missed (~29.2m)

 

These are not very inspiring numbers, especially against the other MCU films.  I'm not as worried since we are coming off a holiday and are in the middle of summer, but still a little concerning.

[cax16]

On 6/26/2022 at 8:49 PM, cax16 said:

Day 14 of presales at 24 nearest theatres,

 

Batman - 9427 tickets sold

DS2 - 18605 tickets sold

Thor 4 - 12165 tickets sold 

 

Next update will be day before preview night. 

Day before preview night at 24 nearest theatres,

 

Batman - 15276 tickets sold 

DS2 - 32,257 tickets sold

Thor 4 - 19878 tickets sold 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Day before preview night at 24 nearest theatres,

 

Batman - 15276 tickets sold 

DS2 - 32,257 tickets sold

Thor 4 - 19878 tickets sold 

does batman tickets include EA shows or just thursday number?

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

does batman tickets include EA shows or just thursday number?

Early shows 

[el sid]

Thor: Love and Thunder, counted today at 11am EST for Sunday, July 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 565 (33 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 705 (19 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 104 (24 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 52 (10 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 34 (21 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 763 (30 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.042 (27 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.265.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Sunday): Doctor Strange 2 (38.9M on Sunday) had 5.017 sold tickets = 65% = 25.3M on Sunday for Thor

and NWH (64.2M) had 8.838 sold tickets = 37% = 23.75M.
 

Well, that wasn't the presales number I expected or hoped for. So far I didn't understand why some reports here aren't too optimistic but now I do.

Tomorrow I count the Friday (which looked good in my theaters) and again the Sunday. At least Doctor Strange 2 had only a small jump back then (9.5%) and Thor could make up ground in the comp tomorrow.

Edited July 6, 2022 by el sid

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Watch Thor 4 open under Top Gun 2 

[Ronin46]

25/135 - 26/140 I guess its looking like.