The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	312	25975	39491	13516	34.23%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	50
Total Seats Sold Today	2246

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	194.64		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	146.98%		26.90m
NWH	53.92		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	47.96%		26.96m
MoM	73.99		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	64.01%		26.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1617/6632  [24.38% sold]
Matinee:    919/3713  [24.75% | 6.80% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Some of y'all doubt Marvel way way waaaaaaay too easily.

 

...

 

Also:

 

 

Good analysis, past me! 👍

 

(so far, at least )

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:
PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am-12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	313	24653	39559	14906	37.68%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	68
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1390

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	190.25		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	162.09%		26.30m
NWH [11:30-12:40]	56.41		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	52.89%		28.20m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	76.59		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	70.59%		27.57m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        1882/6632  [28.38% sold]
Matinee:    1088/3713  [29.30% | 7.30% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Very strong start to the day.  Very likely to center my comp on Multiverse of Madness due to later final sampling time of Black Widow (due to it being a 5pm previews) + increase in ticket prices as well as No Way Home just being a different beast + various other factors I don't need to go into. 

 

All in all absolutely nothing to complain about here.  If Sacto is indicative, that is.

[ZackM]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZackM you had posted that final PS run for DS2 happened at 2PM EST. Is this similar.

Yep, this was run at the same time as the final PS run for DS2.

[el sid]

Thor: Love and Thunder, counted today at 12pm EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.195 (19 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.314 (37 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 356 (24 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 267 (13 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 359 (22 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.452 (29 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 2.002 (30 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 6.946.

Comps: SC (20.8M true Friday) had 3.740 tickets = x1.86 = 38.7M,
Batsy (39.4M) had 7.284 sold tickets = 95.5% = 37.6M,
TSS (8M, day and date release) had 1.560 sold tickets = 35.7M

and Eternals had 4.090 sold tickets = x1,7 = 36M.
 

I heared that The Batman is the best comp so I go with 38M true Friday.

Thor: Love and Thunder, counted today at 12pm EST for Sunday, July 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 752 (19 showtimes, yesterday I interconverted NY and Miami but the numbers were right)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 598 (33 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 125 (24 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 70 (10 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 57 (21 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 834 (30 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.242 (27 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.678.
Comp: Doctor Strange 2 (38.9M on Sunday) had on Thursday for Sunday 5.490 sold tickets = 67% = 26M on Sunday. So Thor indeed increased a bit in the comp compared to yesterday.

 

Btw it's funny that the/our numbers here are so similar for Thursday and Friday. So they must be right .

Edited July 7, 2022 by el sid

[Old Spice]

Love and Thunder Salt Lake City Sugarhouse Cinemark update, 1 hour before previews.

 

Thor put on a great sprint at the end at my non-PLF theater. 500 total tix sold for preview night. That equates to:

 

119% of Batman ($25.65)

137% of Dominion ($24.72)

254% of Eternals ($24.11)

575% of Ghostbusters ($25.86)

 

Sorry I don't have the big comps like NWH, DS2, and Top Gun, but safe to say, this is finishing strong.

 

I'll go with 27/148 for the weekend.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(294 showings): 21943(+2860)/39400 ATP: $15.13

0.785x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (28.26M) [+2261]

1.22x Batman T-1 (21.41M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.650x NWH T-1 (32.52M)

 

T-2 Friday(410 showings): 20395(+3103)/54522 ATP: $15.01

0.700x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (38.33M) [+3253]

0.933x Batman T-2 (32.67M)

0.639x NWH T-2 (45.95M)

 

T-3 Saturday(451 showings): 19023(+2678)/59388 ATP: $14.60

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (36.31M) [+2873]

0.828x Batman T-3 (35.82M)

0.579x NWH T-3 (42.77M)

 

T-4 Sunday(406 showings): 11574(+1429)/54620 ATP: $14.32

0.651x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (25.31M) [+1908]

0.956x Batman T-4 (32.62M)

0.585x NWH T-4 (37.56M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(294 showings): 26814(+4871)/39400 ATP: $14.99

0.828x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (29.81M) [+4427]

1.26x Batman T-0 (22.11M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.691x NWH T-0 (34.54M)

 

T-1 Friday(415 showings): 24881(+4486)/54887 ATP: $14.88

0.763x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (41.77M) [+3471]

0.987x Batman T-1 (34.54M)

0.673x NWH T-1 (48.43M)

 

T-2 Saturday(455 showings): 22669(+3646)/59738 ATP: $14.54

0.675x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (39.00M) [+3318]

0.845x Batman T-2 (36.53M)

0.606x NWH T-2 (44.77M)

 

T-3 Sunday(409 showings): 13516(+1942)/54710 ATP: $14.28

0.660x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (25.68M) [+2685]

0.909x Batman T-3 (31.04M)

0.572x NWH T-3 (36.72M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(236 showings): 10136(+1310)/55313

0.654x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (23.55M) [+1407]

1.21x Batman T-1 (25.98M)

0.394x NWH T-1 (19.68M)

 

T-2 Friday(331 showings): 6939(+1246)/79863

0.578x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (31.63M) [+1584]

1.06x Batman T-2 (36.94M)

0.318x NWH T-2 (22.88M)

 

T-3 Saturday(335 showings): 3942(+643)/80933

0.503x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (29.07M) [+1037]

1.04x Batman T-3 (44.86M)

0.255x NWH T-3 (18.81M)

 

T-4 Sunday(324 showings): 1354(+199)/79733

0.617x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (23.99M) [+445]

149x Batman T-4 (51.02M)

0.335x NWH T-4 (21.49M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(236 showings): 14562(+4426)/55313

0.785x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (28.27M) [+3054]

1.36x Batman T-0 (29.33M)

0.444x NWH T-0 (22.20M)

 

T-1 Friday(331 showings): 8904(+1965)/79863

0.632x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (34.57M) [+2089]

1.03x Batman T-1 (36.20M)

0.330x NWH T-1 (23.76M)

 

T-2 Saturday(335 showings): 5125(+1183)/80933

0.552x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (31.92M) [+1443]

0.997x Batman T-2 (43.13M)

0.273x NWH T-2 (20.18M)

 

T-3 Sunday(324 showings): 1756(+402)/79733

0.691x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (26.85M) [+348]

1.35x Batman T-3 (46.13M)

0.368x NWH T-3 (23.61M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1614

4487

35.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1743

5187

33.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9057	1120	44316	20.44%	15	314

 

AMCs sold	5548
Cinemarks sold	1352
Regals sold	1167
Harkins sold	990

 

1.21x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (23.38M)

0.707x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (25.45M) [+940]

1.29x Batman T-1 (27.92M)

0.470x NWH T-1 (23.50M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1946

4487

43.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2034

5187

39.21%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12234	3177	44942	27.22%	15	317

 

AMCs sold	6723
Cinemarks sold	2077
Regals sold	1866
Harkins sold	1568

 

1.38x Top Gun Maverick T-0 (26.58M)

0.796x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (28.67M) [+2553]

1.41x Batman T-0 (30.50M)

0.528x NWH T-0 (26.41M)

 

Not only did Thor outsell MoM over the last 24 hours in Denver, but it also sold 25.97% of its tickets in the same period. Dominion did 29.53%, MoM did 16.62%. In Megaplex, Dominion sold 32.87% in the last 24 hours, MoM 16.46%, and Thor 30.39%. In Drafthouse, Dominion 26.16%, MoM 11.45%, and Thor 18.21%. A lot of this is because it's summertime, but this is still more late presale/walkup heavy than I expected. I'm gonna be perhaps a bit bold and go with 29.5M

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

True Friday Tracking -- July 7, 2022 -- 12 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (260 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 330PM CST 

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder 

409 show times -- 14220 total seats sold -- 10785 PLF seats sold -- 205 3-D seats sold -- 3230 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 75.8% PLF -- 1.4% 3D -- 22.8% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4400

 

Comps (Adjusted)

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (0.601x = $32.87M True Friday)

The Batman (0.966x = $33.81M True Friday)

Top Gun: Maverick (1.347x = $44.11M True Friday)

Jurassic World: Dominion (1.335x = $55.54M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $43M

Full Friday Estimate: $70M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $152.5M

 

Spoiler

Comments 

Yes, I removed 3 of my theaters for various reasons. Hopefully this helps give a "truer" estimate. Compared to DSITMOM or The Batman, L&T is looking relatively weak (sub $35M TF) but given the information we've gotten today that has shown this to be a bit more walkup friendly for previews (more akin to the ratio of TGM and JWD), I decided to include them and kinda average it out. I expect L&T to get an A- Cinemascore, which coupled with being the heart of summer will lead it to having an IM closer to 6 than 5. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[Eric Prime]

18 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	223	10650	39959	26.65%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,421

 

Comp

0.406x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-1 (20.32M)

1.080x of The Batman T-1 (23.33M)

0.615x of Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (22.13M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	223	13676	39959	34.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3,026

 

Comp

0.445x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (22.25M)

1.098x of The Batman (23.71M)

0.664x of Doctor Strange 2 (23.91M)

 

It seems Philly underperformed a bit here, judging by how hard people are gunning for high 20s for the preview. Just gonna hope for the best I suppose and not assume this is a bellwether.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thor 4	T-0	Jax	7	151	764	4,177	20,225	20.65%
		Phx	7	141	785	4,732	19,975	23.69%
		Ral	8	113	698	4,410	13,018	33.88%
ATP: 14.06	Total		22	405	2,247	13,319	53,218	25.03%

 

Thor 4 T-0 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .642x (23.13m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.47x (25.86m)

 - No Way Home - .429x (21.45m)

 - Black Widow - 2.3x (30.36m)

 - JW3 - 1.61x (29.03m)

 

Not quite the pace I was hoping for over the last two days, but certainly could have been worse.  With one update* to go, I'll put my early prediction at 25m.

 

*I've got a work meeting at 2pm when I would normally run the early shows.  Maybe will be able to multitask.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thor 4	1-Hr	Jax	7	153	1,327	5,504	20,325	27.08%
		Phx	7	144	588	5,320	20,159	26.39%
		Ral	8	117	1,139	5,549	13,293	41.74%
	Total		22	414	3,054	16,373	53,777	30.45%

 

I'm not sure if I posted my target number from this morning, but I was looking for +22% (~16.2k total) based on the trends of the comps per the chart below.  Once the seats were counted, the final tally came to 22.9% increase.

 

 

Thor 4 T-1hr comps

 - NWH - .472x (23.61m)

 - DS2 - .71x (25.55m)

 - Black Widow - 2.22x (29.56m)

 - JW3 - 1.532x (27.57m)

 - TG2 - 2.03x (29.81m)

All CBM - 29.79m

All PG-13 movies - 32.78m

All 3pm preview movies - 32.53m

All movies - 32.6m

 

I know what everyone will say, "the only comps that matter are NWH and DS2." Well, I disagree.  Thor 4 has not shown over the past few weeks that it isn't performing like those two movies.  Once we get a number we'll know for sure, but I'm much more inclined to look at all the other comps that are pointing to a number between 27m and 32m.  I'll put my final prediction at 29m.

[Dragoncaine]

Thor: Love and Thunder is off to an 85% verified RT audience score w/ 100+ ratings, 76% all audience w/ 250+ ratings. Not looking good so far. Wonder how clearly mixed WOM will play into the weekend

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric Odinson said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	223	13676	39959	34.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3,026

 

Comp

0.445x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (22.25M)

1.098x of The Batman (23.71M)

0.664x of Doctor Strange 2 (23.91M)

 

It seems Philly underperformed a bit here, judging by how hard people are gunning for high 20s for the preview. Just gonna hope for the best I suppose and not assume this is a bellwether.

 

My gut says that Thor will play more Caucasian than MoM, so I wouldn't discount the weakness you see here...

[LegendaryBen]

9 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Thor: Love and Thunder is off to an 85% verified RT audience score w/ 100+ ratings, 76% all audience w/ 250+ ratings. Not looking good so far. Wonder how clearly mixed WOM will play into the weekend

$400M dom may be tough unless it opens close to DS2.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:
PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am-12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	313	24653	39559	14906	37.68%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	68
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1390

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	190.25		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	162.09%		26.30m
NWH [11:30-12:40]	56.41		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	52.89%		28.20m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	76.59		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	70.59%		27.57m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        1882/6632  [28.38% sold]
Matinee:    1088/3713  [29.30% | 7.30% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Very strong start to the day.  Very likely to center my comp on Multiverse of Madness due to later final sampling time of Black Widow (due to it being a 5pm previews) + increase in ticket prices as well as No Way Home just being a different beast + various other factors I don't need to go into. 

 

All in all absolutely nothing to complain about here.  If Sacto is indicative, that is.

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:
PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm-4:35pm]

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	320	23111	40073	16962	42.33%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	7
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	514
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	2056

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	184.45		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	184.45%		25.49m
NWH [3:00-4:30]	60.19		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	60.19%		30.09m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	80.32		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	80.32%		28.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       2227/6632  [33.58% sold]
Matinee:    1355/3713  [36.49% | 7.99% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Jesus Flippin' Christ, what a day.   Pretty much mirrored what @Inceptionzq saw in Denver (edit: And what @katnisscinnaplex saw in their regionals  as well [they posted while I was  getting the Sacto numbers]).  

 

Not gonna quite call for 29.5m though, as I said I was gonna anchor on MoM.  So with that in mind, let's go for an even 29m +/- .8m.

 

FWIW, a 10% ticket price hike on Black Widow comps in at almost exactly 28m.  But, then again, differing times in sampling, so who knows.

 

I do think that both Denver and Sacto are running hot, so I'm tempted to call for 28.5m.  But, eh.  In for a penny, in for a pound.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

Some interesting final day numbers: quite a few markets seeing a big last day push, while the first Alpha update was pretty soft.  East Coast finals look to be underindexing compared to NWH & Strange (which could partially explain the Alpha number at 2PM EST), but others picking up the slack, with Sacto likely to continue that trend based on the mid-day report there

 

Probably enough strong numbers to tentatively expect $28-29M, but lets see how the later updates look

 

Edit: Adding the updated chart since we got the Sacto update like 30 seconds before I posted. Quite a hook there at the end

 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by M37

[charlie Jatinder]

Yeah everything going pretty much as expected barring the two odd days on Sunday & Tuesday. 

 

[IceFire9yt]

Yeah, charlie called it.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 6/13/2022 at 6:16 AM, StormbreakerXXR said:

Happy “Thor: Love & Thunder” first sales day! I’m going to throw out an early previews prediction of $29M. 
 

I know that it’s summer so that will technically allow more people to go see it as opposed to an April or May date, but I don’t see it matching MOM just on the hype factor. I do expect stronger WOM though and a better weekend multiplier. 

Never a doubt 🤓

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Walkups seemed good around me tonight but I'm not anticipating strong WOM

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

I do expect stronger WOM though

False God.