The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AJG]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Can we back away from handwringing over Avatar for a second and talk about the fact they made a sequel to Wonder (is it still coming out next month? Because there's been zero effort to promote it in a while) that apparently has to do with World War II? What a random movie to try and turn into a franchise lmao.

 

They made a random holocaust movie and smacked "Wonder" branding onto it last minute.

 

That's my conspiracy anyway.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, Babylon XXR said:

It’s not indicative of anything except a misjudgment in theater count. Shawn had anticipated a release near the size of the NWH re-release but in actuality it will be less than half of that (3900 vs 1800).

Agreed, and I'll add that implicit in that change is the expectation that ~60% of the re-release OW gross would come from 3D/PLF screens, and since that's essentially at it will have, forecast dropped to 60% of previously expected wide roll-out. Plus no Thursday shows to help the OW number either

 

Expected PTA now ~$3300-$6600, which seems reasonable, especially with ATP likely hitting $15-$16 range (if not higher) given PLF surcharge and limited, high-end market rollout, something like 200-400 tickets per site

 

[CJohn]

Here the re-release is ultra wide. Half of the theaters are showing it in 3D, the other half in 2D. Definitly a test run to see what version people will choose.

[Krissykins]

$1.7m for The Woman King. 
 

The same multi as Beast gets it to $21.3m. 
 

High teens guaranteed. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Krissykins

[DAJK]

The locations I tracked last night for The Woman King put it in the 1.2-1.3M ballpark for Thursday previews, with a few outliers as low as 1.1M and as high as 1.6M. Now, with that being said, I was always expecting it to perform a tad softer in Canada than in the US. But Friday presales are actually pretty strong in comparison. Wouldn't be surprised with a leggy run this weekend.

 

See How They Run and Pearl are more or less neck-and-neck. But again, a movie like See How They Run would definitely overperform slightly in somewhere like BC, and horror is usually weaker in Canada than in the US.

[Eric Lasagna]

17 hours ago, The Eric King said:

The Woman King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	1243	13065	4.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 628

 

Comp

2.590x of Respect (1.68M)

0.878x of Candyman (1.67M)

Lol guess I was on the money here

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$1.7m for The Woman King. 
 

The same multi as Beast gets it to $21.3m. 
 

High teens guaranteed. 

 

Candyman opened with 1.9M on Thursday and had 22.4M weekend. WK is going to be less frontloaded so 21.3M is the floor I think. Where is the weekend thread?

[Eric Lasagna]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Candyman opened with 1.9M on Thursday and had 22.4M weekend. WK is going to be less frontloaded so 21.3M is the floor I think. Where is the weekend thread?

 

[Tinalera]

Smile Sept 29 SW/Toronto Ontario

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	6	12	4	3280	3284	0.001
Fri	6	23	3	6075	6078	0.0004

 

 

IM.....working on the comp I have for thor 4, I hesitate to put up at moment because 1 the short time off has turned my brain to mush calculating comps, and 2 if I AM right, there are some funky numbers-for comparison Thor on Thursday at same had 6,798 seats to Smiles......4

 

EDIT: So someone tell me if I did something wrong or if these would be numbers for Thursday:

 

I tried to a comp for Thor, and I think I forgot about  calculating, so I may have gotten this wrong, but Thor had 6798 for the Thursday at the same time period two weeks out. So Thor having 6798 seats sold and Smile having....er 4, this was the comp-funny numbers

 

Thurs

 

x ,04 Thor 4 (which had 4.9 million gross CDN) ( the percentage is .0021 so.....2 thousand 1 hundred dollars? Sound about right? LOL)

 

If not can I get very quick referesher on calculating comps because all that time off my brain went to mush lol

 

I will do friday one I know that Im the doing the comps right lol

Edited September 16, 2022 by Tinalera

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Can we back away from handwringing over Avatar for a second and talk about the fact they made a sequel to Wonder (is it still coming out next month? Because there's been zero effort to promote it in a while) that apparently has to do with World War II? What a random movie to try and turn into a franchise lmao.

It was removed from schedule, like everything from Lionsgate.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Woman King Harkins

 

THU - 2003/30370 (112 showings) $22,176

There are 2 more shows to go which will add may be 10-25 seats. Looks like $1.3-1.4M previews.

Unless there were early access screenings or something, 1.7 means Harkins was just 1.4% of overall. Under-indexed a LOT.

Now, FRI actually looks quite good in Harkins, if FRI is gonna underindex to this degree, that will be really big.

[el sid]

The Woman King, counted today at 8am EST for today, September 16:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 411 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 61 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 25 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 18 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 117 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 147 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 792.

Up good 52.5% since yesterday.
Comp: The best comp I have is Candyman which had also on Friday for Friday 1.064 sold tickets.

Well, I hoped for 2M from previews but 1.7M isn't bad at all. (Early) WOM is great and the jump till today was also good so I just stick with 20M+.

[GOGODanca]

On 9/14/2022 at 5:49 PM, GOGODanca said:

  Hide contents

Update about 51 hours later:

AMC Gulf Pointe 30: 29 tickets sold across 8 showtimes

 

AMC fountain 18: 37 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC deerbrook 24: 4 tickets sold across 6 showtimes

 

AMC Willowbrook 24: 36 tickets sold across 9 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 4 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 13 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Metropark square 10: 30 tickets sold across 2 showtimes 

 

Decided to look at 7 cinemarks and here is the data for them:

 

Cinemark Hollywood Movies: 11 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Tinseltown USA:  2 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Memorial City: 13 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Rosenberg 12:  12 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 19 and XD:  9 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 17 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cut by Cinemark express:  10 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Spoiler

Avatar 2 update about 41 hours later

 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30: 43 tickets sold across 8 showtimes

 

AMC fountain 18: 52 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC deerbrook 24: 7 tickets sold across 6 showtimes

 

AMC Willowbrook 24: 40 tickets sold across 9 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 2 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 15 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Metropark square 10: 44 tickets sold across 2 showtimes 

 

+50 tickets sold in these 7 locations

 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by GOGODanca

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No idea.  @Shawn might have access to that info, or know how to find it though.

 

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Relatedly, Shawn, is it possible to get an approximate theater/screen count for PLF theaters in the DOM market now versus 2009?  Did some minor digging and wasn't able to come up with much public info that was easily findable (though I did find some info for 2015).  

 

I ask because PLF has utterly exploded since 2009 (which would have been pretty much IMAX only back then, right? [EDITED:  Looks like Cinemark started to roll out XD in 2009, with Regal launching RPX in 2010]), but I'm curious to see exactly how much it has grown in the last 13 years.

Looking into it. I've been trying to find exact numbers as well given the Avatar relevance.

[GOGODanca]

On 9/15/2022 at 10:39 AM, GOGODanca said:

Don't Worry Darling check at my local AMC's  (started checking around 10:30 AM today) for Thursday:

 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30:  21 tickets sold across 5 showtimes

 

AMC Houston 8: 10 tickets sold across 2 showtimes

 

AMC Fountains 18: 9 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC First Colony 24: 14 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC Deerbrook 24: 3 tickets sold across 2 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 29 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 30 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Brazos Mall 14: 3 tickets sold across 2 showtimes

AMC Metropark Square 10: 30 tickets sold across 2 showtimes

 

Total: 149 tickets sold across 34 showtimes

 

Update 28 hours later: 173 tickets sold across the 34 showtimes (+24)

[LonePirate]

 

Regal is selling $5 tickets to a Mystery Movie for Monday night, September 26. This is from the largest complex in my area playing the movie. For a Monday night not during the summer or holidays, this is a solid performance ten days in advance. I have no idea what the movie is but I am guessing it is Amsterdam as it is being advertised as a new movie. I don’t think it is a horror movie like Smile but it could be as the movie is opening on the 30th. People actively avoid horror films as intensely as some people seek them out. I suppose it could be Bros as Regal is doing some showings of older comedic classics branded under Bros Presents (Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Trainwreck, Knocked Up). I just don’t think they would want to risk upsetting right wingers by making Bros the unknown movie they just paid to see. Maybe I am wrong.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Wasn't able to get to The Woman King after school before its previews started, but looking around walk-ups seem fine? Not blowing stuff out of the water though.

 

Unlike...

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	24	217	217	3510	6.18

 

Holy FUCK. This is just absolutely blowing everything I have out of the water, it would be silly to use any of my comps. And worth mentioning this does NOT include the IMAX events for Monday, which all seem to be pretty much sold out around here. The frontloadedness isn't unexpected, due to Styles + all the drama, but the sheer volume of it is (at least for me). We'll see how this keeps shaping up, but I think this is going to be my first real fun tracking experience ever 😄

 

 

 

Thursday Twin Cities Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling

Day: T-6	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	24	32	249	3510	7.09

 

Solid day, interested to track next week's jumps though. Will give us a hint of how frontloaded it will be.

[Derpity]

3 hours ago, LonePirate said:

 

Regal is selling $5 tickets to a Mystery Movie for Monday night, September 26. This is from the largest complex in my area playing the movie. For a Monday night not during the summer or holidays, this is a solid performance ten days in advance. I have no idea what the movie is but I am guessing it is Amsterdam as it is being advertised as a new movie. I don’t think it is a horror movie like Smile but it could be as the movie is opening on the 30th. People actively avoid horror films as intensely as some people seek them out. I suppose it could be Bros as Regal is doing some showings of older comedic classics branded under Bros Presents (Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Trainwreck, Knocked Up). I just don’t think they would want to risk upsetting right wingers by making Bros the unknown movie they just paid to see. Maybe I am wrong.

Good shout, just booked this. It's 140 minutes and rated R, which narrows it down quite a bit. Thinking and hoping that it is indeed Amsterdam.

 

If it is, kinda weird that they skipped all the festivals but are releasing as an untitled $5 film at Regal lol.

[John2015]

"Don't Worry Darling" box office tracking.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/movies/olivia-wilde-dont-worry-darling.html 

Quote

Based on pre-release surveys that track consumer interest, box office experts had predicted roughly $20 million in opening-weekend ticket sales. In recent days, those estimates have cooled to about $18 million. Surveys have shown that ticket sales could be as low as $16 million. Warner Bros. declined to comment on box office projections but an insider at the studio who was not permitted to speak on the record said it had always expected about $18 million and that interest had not fluctuated.

 

Edited September 17, 2022 by John2015

[Gokira2012]

I'm seeing people post alot of empty seats for Tonight and Tomm.  seats on Twitter for Woman King

Edited September 17, 2022 by Gokira2012