The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[poweranimals]

5 hours ago, Firepower said:

Guardians doing 80-100 mln is crazy talk and doomposting, but here we are. While yes, it's way too early, but not impossible. They already started executions after Ant-Man flop weeks ago and they'll continue it with each fail until it can finally reach the head of the dragon.

I don't see how anyone can blame Feige. I think he's probably overworked at this point. If anything I'd blame Chapek for demanding so much content over such a short period of time. It does seem like they're scaling back though so that should help with quality control. A lot of these projects were already in the works though before that so it's not gonna be fixed overnight.

[ringedmortality]

It feels surreal to see the end of a genre like this. When was the last time something of this scale went down this hard? 

[DisposedData]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

It feels surreal to see the end of a genre like this. When was the last time something of this scale went down this hard? 

When young adult fizzled out like ten years ago

[Wrath]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it's going to end up with an identical total to the director's previous movie (2015's The Good Dinosaur, $123M). Pixar will see megabucks again, but it won't be with this.

 

I dunno. Among Pixar's first 15 movies, A Bug's Life was probably the worst performer and it still did 162DOM and 330WW. And that was the WORST. Their next 6 were incredibly up and down at the box office, Good Dinosaur and Finding Dory, Cars 3 and Incredibles 2, Coco (which was fine but not huge) and Toy Story 4. So their numbers were overall still good, but the critical reception was clearly down from their earlier stuff, which, other than Cars 2, was basically immaculate.

 

But their last 5 movies... Sure, Onward, Luca and Soul all got hosed by Covid at the box office, their critical reception was mostly very good (with Onward being a little worse and Lightyear worse than that) and Turning Red got streamed instead of a regular release. But none of them had any kind of cultural impact. The last Pixar movie that was huge because it was spectacular rather than because it was a sequel of something spectacular was, at best, Coco and really was probably 2015's Inside Out. After 20 years of being nearly perfect, they've now gone 8 years since their last year triumph.

 

I personally would not bet on them re-achieving that past glory.

[Ryan Reynolds]

28 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

It feels surreal to see the end of a genre like this. When was the last time something of this scale went down this hard? 

MCU is run like a long running tv series, no show in its tenth season has ratings as good as first 5 seasons and once you lose viewers its almost impossible to get them back no matter the quality

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I think it's going to end up with an identical total to the director's previous movie (2015's The Good Dinosaur, $123M). Pixar will see megabucks again, but it won't be with this.

If it got peak Pixar reception it would do way better than that. Marketing it giving me bad reductive vibes on the quality front, but Pixar is infamous for poor marketing campaigns that don’t give you a good idea of the movie’s quality imo. So who knows yet. It will all come down to quality with that one. “Mid” would be a death knell for that movie. 

[ThomasNicole]

37 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

I dunno. Among Pixar's first 15 movies, A Bug's Life was probably the worst performer and it still did 162DOM and 330WW. And that was the WORST. Their next 6 were incredibly up and down at the box office, Good Dinosaur and Finding Dory, Cars 3 and Incredibles 2, Coco (which was fine but not huge) and Toy Story 4. So their numbers were overall still good, but the critical reception was clearly down from their earlier stuff, which, other than Cars 2, was basically immaculate.

 

But their last 5 movies... Sure, Onward, Luca and Soul all got hosed by Covid at the box office, their critical reception was mostly very good (with Onward being a little worse and Lightyear worse than that) and Turning Red got streamed instead of a regular release. But none of them had any kind of cultural impact. The last Pixar movie that was huge because it was spectacular rather than because it was a sequel of something spectacular was, at best, Coco and really was probably 2015's Inside Out. After 20 years of being nearly perfect, they've now gone 8 years since their last year triumph.

 

I personally would not bet on them re-achieving that past glory.

It´s way hard to measure cultural impact when you don´t have factual data not only of box office, but things like legs, multipliers, cinemascore etc. 

 

But we do have data that points that at least 3 out of their last 5 movies you mentioned are juggernauts on streaming. Soul was the biggest streaming debut for a movie ever when it dropped, Luca was the most watched movie of 2021, Turning Red was the second most watched movie of 2022 [losing only for the massive Encanto]. Even Onward despite all the mess around it because of Covid ended up with nearly 9B on Nielsen on 2020.

 

So you know, there are data supporting the argument that Pixar movies are still very big with audiences, the only problem is that their last movies ended up being huge in a different environment where is way hard to measure such an abstract concept like cultural impact, which makes even hard to argue that their glory is over. 

 

Maybe they will need some time to get there again, Elemental can easily be just a first step in the right direction since it´s been 4 years since they had a normal well received release and a lot changed to be suddenly fixed by the first good movie they put on theaters, but they didn´t lose their appeal with audiences, people just have to learn to watch them in theaters again, and most likely they will at some point.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Soul was the biggest streaming debut for a movie ever when it dropped,

 

Didn’t Wonder Woman 1984 beat Soul something like 2.2bn to 1.8bn when they dropped? 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26977	27700	723	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

T-26 Comp:

%

Sold T-26

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.36

41

1630

0/171

22154/23784

6.85%

33839

2.14%

7.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     106/10105  [1.05% sold]
Matinee:     14/3518  [0.40% | 1.94% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26954	27700	746	2.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

23

 

T-25 Comp:

%

Sold T-25

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.14

60

1690

0/171

22094/23784

7.11%

33839

2.20%

7.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10105  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    15/3518  [0.43% | 2.01% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25282	29054	3772	12.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

95

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.81		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	17.86%		12.53m
L&T	54.02		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	22.24%		15.67m
Bats	86.95		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	32.08%		18.78m
BP2	50.86		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	22.45%		14.24m
AM3	75.21		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	36.01%		13.16m
JWD	134.14		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	34.40%		24.15m
TGM	81.77		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	32.87%		15.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       727/11010  [6.60% sold]
Matinee:    118/3372  [3.50% | 3.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            447/5457  [8.19% | 11.85% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25171	29054	3883	13.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

111

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	35.22		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	18.39%		12.68m
L&T	54.05		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	22.89%		15.67m
Bats	86.91		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	33.03%		18.77m
BP2	50.98		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	23.11%		14.28m
AM3	75.00		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	37.07%		13.13m
JWD	129.69		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	35.41%		23.34m
TGM	80.09		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	33.84%		15.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       754/11010  [6.85% sold]
Matinee:    124/3372  [3.68% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]
3D:            456/5457  [8.36% | 11.74% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

For all the lurkers from reddit, Twitter, and elsewhere who are just joining us:

 

[Jonwo]

10 hours ago, YM! said:

Now this is just crazy talk and doomposting. Yes, the theoretical low for Guardians is horrendously bad but they’re not getting rid of Disney’s golden goose. It’s likely they’ll continue the steps of course correcting they are already like reducing output or more of a focus on quality.

Getting rid of Feige would be a terrible idea, he's literally the reason why the MCU is so successful. It'd be like suggesting Disney stops making Marvel films, not going to happen. 

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Williams said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3295	39919	8.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-13

1.628x of Black Widow (21.49M)

3.369x of Shang-Chi (29.65M)

2.001x of Eternals (19.01M)

0.333x of Doctor Strange 2 (11.99M)

0.569x of Thor 4 (16.5M)

0.446x of Black Panther 2 (12.5M)

0.759x of Ant-Man 3 (13.28M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3358	39919	8.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp - T-11

1.597x of Black Widow (21.09M)

3.177x of Shang-Chi (27.96M)

1.972x of Eternals (18.73M)

0.334x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.02M)

0.564x of Thor 4 (16.37M)

0.447x of Black Panther 2 (12.53M)

0.759x of Ant-Man 3 (13.29M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Williams said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	495	17734	2.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp - T-26

0.394x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.1M)

2.735x of Nope (17.5M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	507	17734	2.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-25

0.397x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.15M)

2.522x of Nope (16.14M)

[KeepItU25071906]

5 hours ago, Wrath said:

 

But their last 5 movies... Sure, Onward, Luca and Soul all got hosed by Covid at the box office, their critical reception was mostly very good (with Onward being a little worse and Lightyear worse than that) and Turning Red got streamed instead of a regular release. But none of them had any kind of cultural impact. 

Soul is great btw. On the same high level as Up or Inside Out. And it's very sad it just left nothing in audience's memory.

[CJohn]

I still think GotG3 opens with 130M+. This one has no hype/event factor that would cause rush factor to get tickets. Walkups and late buys will help a ton on the week leading to release and even during Thursday itself. It will be fine. The movie also has all of May to stabilize since Fast X is bound to not be a threat and The Little Mermaid isn't direct competition (plus its Memorial Day weekend which also helps with the hold).

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I still think GotG3 opens with 130M+. This one has no hype/event factor that would cause rush factor to get tickets. Walkups and late buys will help a ton on the week leading to release and even during Thursday itself. It will be fine. The movie also has all of May to stabilize since Fast X is bound to not be a threat and The Little Mermaid isn't direct competition (plus its Memorial Day weekend which also helps with the hold).

 

This is not the CJohn i know. Who are you and what did you do to the real CJohn?

Edited April 24, 2023 by Brainbug

[GOGODanca]

22 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I still think GotG3 opens with 130M+. This one has no hype/event factor that would cause rush factor to get tickets. Walkups and late buys will help a ton on the week leading to release and even during Thursday itself. It will be fine. The movie also has all of May to stabilize since Fast X is bound to not be a threat and The Little Mermaid isn't direct competition (plus its Memorial Day weekend which also helps with the hold).

Fast X doesn't need to be a threat, just taking away the PLFs is enough to hurt the movie, look at John Wick 4 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am not worried about Guardians opening under 100 or anything like that either. T-17 to T-10 was bad, but I think those days are still more in the fan buying period of sales. From T-10 you generally see movies with longer PS periods start to bump and I think that's where the GA starts paying more attention to sales. My expectation is that Guardians will play more like other MCU sequels and have bumps throughout this week rather than AM3 which stagnated after reactions. If it does so then after its review boost on Friday it can pace on par with WF/Thor and way ahead of AM3, which would lead to a strong final week. Of course this could all be denial as the Guardians are my favorite MCU characters and I don't want to see this flop, but I do think that the fanbase/GA interest ratio here is much different than AM3 and that will show this week. If by next Sunday the relative pace hasn't improved too much vs Thor/WF and is closer to Ant-Man then I will start to get on the doom train. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Menor the Destroyer]

Guardians 3 MTC3

 

Total Shows: 5288

Total Sold: 37605/1080635

 

This is the first time I'm tracking this chain and the ratio of reserved/non-reserved seating makes it difficult to compare with other data, so no comps as of now. But it'll be nice to have this for upcoming CBMs like Flash/Spiderverse etc.

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[kayumanggi]

28 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This is not the CJohn i know. Who are you and what did you do to the real CJohn?

 

"GOTG III can't even open to 90M? Theaters are dead."