The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Maggie]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Next week is nuts. We have Indy 5 starting on Monday and Flash on Tuesday. 

 

I really hate how studios crammed so many movie in so little space this summer. Legs will be shit for many

[lorddemaxus]

55 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah 2.4x multiplier for an original movie expected to have great reception seems a bit absurd to me especially without a big opening

Could happen if theaters prioritize other movies in terms of showtimes. Especially with the onslaught this June/July, this will have to fight for shows later in its run

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Could happen if theaters prioritize other movies in terms of showtimes. Especially with the onslaught this June/July, this will have to fight for shows later in its run

Fair, but like i said the awful presales shouldn’t be such a problem for a movie like this, i don’t think it will open that low to be discarded so quickly and is also the only family movie along with the DW one until Turtles in August
 

If WOM ended up strong and show results by week 2, it should be enough for theaters find space for it even if in smaller rooms 

 

[JWR]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Fair, but like i said the awful presales shouldn’t be such a problem for a movie like this, i don’t think it will open that low to be discarded so quickly and is also the only family movie along with the DW one until Turtles in August
 

If WOM ended up strong and show results by week 2, it should be enough for theaters find space for it even if in smaller rooms 

 

 

That's why I don't see it collapsing like Lightyear did. Minions 2 stole all the oxygen in the room and delivered what families wanted from an animated Summer movie. Ruby Gillman could surprise, but that has even less awareness than Elemental does now.

[TwoMisfits]

TMobile Atom deal for $5 PLF tickets coming for Spidey on May 30.  I may have to swap my tickets to OW now.

 

For the trackers b/c this is the biggest movie with a TMobile $5 Atom deal since they brought that deal back post Covid.

 

2023 movies now with $5 TMobile Atom deals:

 

Plane

Creed 3

John Wick 4

Are You There God, It's Me Margaret

Spidey Into the Spiderverse

 

*I think I forgot one...although maybe I didn't...

Edited May 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

TMobile Atom deal for $5 PLF tickets coming for Spidey on May 30.  I may have to swap my tickets to OW now.

 

For the trackers b/c this is the biggest movie with a TMobile $5 Atom deal since they brought that deal back post Covid.

 

2023 movies now with $5 TMobile Atom deals:

 

Plane

Creed 3

John Wick 4

Are You There God, It's Me Margaret

Spidey Into the Spiderverse

 

*I think I forgot one...although maybe I didn't...

Spiderverse is being underestimated in regards to industry tracking. 

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont want to prolong this discussion on this thread but Sohn made Good Dinosaur previously. I would keep expectations low. 

In fairness to Sohn, TGD was tossed around like a frisbee between the directors and brain trust having to takeover.

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Next week is nuts. We have Indy 5 starting on Monday and Flash on Tuesday. 

So what do folks think. Which movie will have bigger OD sales nationally. Plus Flash relative to other SH movies recently would be interesting though I dont want this thread to go toxic. 

Expecting Flash to jump out ahead early, but then cool off until the week or two before release (see GOTG3, Black Adam). While Indy probably lags a bit to start, but paces better in the intermediate period (a la TGM, Avatar 2)

Edited May 18, 2023 by M37

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
235	2967	40667	7.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

474

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.74

 

Not bad, not great. Feel pretty confident in $7M-$8M previews 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.316x) ~$5.5M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$54M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.092x) ~$9.7M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$96M OW)

 

Prediction: $7.6M THUR 

 

If it follows F9 IM: $75M OW 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
241	3848	42965	8.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

881

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Not a bad final day. Definitely feel like $7m-$8m is the range here. Probably closer to $8m given comps below

 

COMPS

T-0

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.356x) ~$6.2M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$61M OW)

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.070x) ~$9.5M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$94M OW)

 

If it falls between the two comps: $7.8M THUR 

If it follows F9 IM: $77M OW 

Edited May 18, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	243	30319	33247	2928	8.81%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	8
Total Net Seats Added Today	347
Total Seats Sold Today	545

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	105.10		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	78.35%		6.52m
Bats	30.70		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	24.90%		6.63m
TG:M	30.32		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	25.52%		5.99m
JWD	34.78		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	26.70%		6.26m
BA	92.83		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	65.15%		7.06m
Wick 4	74.79		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	53.74%		6.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	96.03		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	66.44%		7.82m
Fast X (adj)			507	2784		0/225	27100/29884	9.32%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     677/12651  [5.35% sold]
Matinee:    179/4413  [4.06% | 6.11% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Better than yesterday, at least, but man... I dunno.  F9 exploded on the last day, and since it was sampled later in the night (due to it being 7pm previews) it might have a larger final day to comp against.  Still, maybe extra showtimes make up for it?  Heck if I know.

 

6.5m does seem to be the floor at the very least.  Gun to my head, I do think it clears 7m, but... Like I said, I dunno.  Reviews look to be "good enough" at any rate.

 

Just have to see how the walkups are.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:05pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	243	29842	33247	3405	10.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

477

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD[12:00-12:35]	110.23		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	91.12%		6.83m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	32.50		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	28.96%		7.02m
TG:M [11:30-12:30]	32.86		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	29.68%		6.49m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	35.88		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	31.05%		6.46m
BA [11:35-12:35]	94.06		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	75.77%		7.15m
Wick4[11:30-12:20]	78.37		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	62.50%		6.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	94.90		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	77.26%		7.73m
Fast X (adj)			433	3217		0/225	26667/29884	10.76%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     803/12651  [6.35% sold]
Matinee:    228/4413  [5.17% | 6.70% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaaan, I dunno.  Walkups are strong enough that it should clear 7m at least.  But they ain't as strong as they were for F9.  Also looks to be a bit top-heavy at the stronger theaters in town as I ain't seeing as much action at the mid-tier/lower end of the upper tier of local theaters.  Still, 7.25m to 7.75m might be the initial range, presuming Sacto isn't underperforming for some reason.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Porthos

[el sid]

Fast X counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 586 (14 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 257 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 138 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 41 (10 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 109 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 390 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 833 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.354.
Up 23% since yesterday (F9 rose 27.5% from Wednesday to Thursday, H&S 26%).
Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Angel Has Fallen (6.4M true Friday/21.4M OW) had 446 sold tickets (with a final jump of 50%).
BT (8M/30M) had 1.250 sold tickets,
Uncharted (11.7M/44M) had 1.180 sold tickets,
Hobbs & Shaw (17.9M/60M) had 2.465 sold tickets = 99.9% = 17.9M.
F9 (22.9M/70M) had 3.585 sold tickets = 65.7% (yesterday it were 71%) = 15M (not inflation adjusted).

Well, that's less encouraging. Fast X lost ground against the comps every day and normally that trend continues. And Idk why Fast X should have better walk-ups than e.g. F9.
Normally I have trust in my action film comps. OTOH in some other reports here the Friday presales don't look as bad as mine.
But from my comps ca. 60M OW could happen.

Edited May 18, 2023 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-1) - 79352/811991 1363660.36 4568 shows +13218

 

 

F9 was around 67K. So this is comfortably ahead. But F9 sold 64K tickets with final day presales and walkups despite 7PM start. What can FX do with 2PM start let us see. I am thinking 8m previews for now.  I will update Friday presales tomorrow morning. 

Fast X MTC1 previews - 95786/812802 1612066.66 4585 shows +16424

 

Now let us see how walkups go. 

[M37]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Maaaaan, I dunno.  Walkups are strong enough that it should clear 7m at least.  But they ain't as strong as they were for F9.  Also looks to be a bit top-heavy at the stronger theaters in town as I ain't seeing as much action at the mid-tier/lower end of the upper tier of local theaters.  Still, 7.25m to 7.75m might be the initial range, presuming Sacto isn't underperforming for some reason.

So the same skew towards high profile (and presumably PLF heavier) locations in the micro as we’re seeing in the macro with MTC vs markets. If you have it handy, how does PLF share compare to comps like BA, JWD, maybe JW4?

 

Really feels like the causal/GA draw is just softer here, and that doesn’t portend well for weekend, unless it shifts  after Thursday. Currently thinking low $60s for weekend (and I’m not 100% sure $60M is the floor…)

Edited May 18, 2023 by M37

[Shawn Robbins]

Looking like a $28M floor on Elemental. But... I don't know, you could tell me that's $5M too high or $15M too low and I wouldn't have enough data to entirely disprove either.

 

Let's see how things look in a couple of weeks, especially if we get a sense that Spider-Verse is going to be front-loaded -- which it could be... Friday sales have some work to do catch up to Thursday, which makes it look more and more like a fan-heavy Marvel movie than a traditional animated release. (Not that I'm saying it will disappoint, just a word of caution that its Thu-to-Fri disparity is worth watching.)

 

Flash will be... higher than Elemental.

 

Transformers tracking from Deadline (which is likely via NRG, but not confirmed) is definitely a head-scratcher to me. I'm raising the range on BOP tomorrow, but not nearly that much. Might end up landing in between when it actually opens, but I'm still just very concerned with competition + brand overexposure -- unless something else is going to significantly disappoint and balance things out. But that would surprise me at the moment.

[Shawn Robbins]

Also concerned Fast X could dip as low as $55M, but still sticking with the $58M floor from yesterday for now. At this point, it's opened, so it's not even technically a forecast if I take the time to change it this afternoon/evening. We're in the "weekend has started, let the chips land as they may" phase on that one.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, el sid said:

Fast X counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 586 (14 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 257 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 138 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 41 (10 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 109 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 390 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 833 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.354.
Up 23% since yesterday (F9 rose 27.5% from Wednesday to Thursday, H&S 26%).
Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Angel Has Fallen (6.4M true Friday/21.4M OW) had 446 sold tickets (with a final jump of 50%).
BT (8M/30M) had 1.250 sold tickets,
Uncharted (11.7M/44M) had 1.180 sold tickets,
Hobbs & Shaw (17.9M/60M) had 2.465 sold tickets = 99.9% = 17.9M.
F9 (22.9M/70M) had 3.585 sold tickets = 65.7% (yesterday it were 71%) = 15M (not inflation adjusted).

Well, that's less encouraging. Fast X lost ground against the comps every day and normally that trend continues. And Idk why Fast X should have better walk-ups than e.g. F9.
Normally I have trust in my action film comps. OTOH in some other reports here the Friday presales don't look as bad as mine.
But from my comps ca. 60M OW could happen.

Empire seems to think the same thing 

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Looking like a $28M floor on Elemental. But... I don't know, you could tell me that's $5M too high or $15M too low and I wouldn't have enough data to entirely disprove either.

 

Let's see how things look in a couple of weeks, especially if we get a sense that Spider-Verse is going to be front-loaded -- which it could be... Friday sales have some work to do catch up to Thursday, which makes it look more and more like a fan-heavy Marvel movie than a traditional animated release. (Not that I'm saying it will disappoint, just a word of caution that its Thu-to-Fri disparity is worth watching.)

 

Flash will be... higher than Elemental.

 

Transformers tracking from Deadline (which is likely via NRG, but not confirmed) is definitely a head-scratcher to me. I'm raising the range on BOP tomorrow, but not nearly that much. Might end up landing in between when it actually opens, but I'm still just very concerned with competition + brand overexposure -- unless something else is going to significantly disappoint and balance things out. But that would surprise me at the moment.

Always appreciate your insight. 

[TheFlatLannister]

So what I'm gathering from this thread is Fast previews will probably be $7m-$8m but it will have a lower IM than F9 

 

Sub $60m would be bad

[DAJK]

The fact that this tracking thread brings out THE @Shawn every so often is honestly a testament to how great the work is that y’all do. Love each and every one of you, you’ve made this one of, if not THE best box office tracking pages on the entire internet.

[Tinalera]

FWIW to anyone-this weekend is a long weekend up here in Canada (Victoria Day weekend), don't know how much that could boost Fast X Canadian take, but it might be something to consider the possiblity of a "4 day weekend" for what that's worth.

 

As far as the packing up of the different movies opening over next couple of months, Im at a serious condundrum of what I will be able to track. Ill be following Mermaid and probably Spiderverse that takes us into early June, but after that, I don't know what I will be covering. Ill take a look at the release dates and figure out which ones are spaced out the best for me.