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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Blackening T-3 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .554x (665m)

 - Men - 621x (263k)

 - Firestarter - .554x (208k)

 - Night House - 2.28x (592k)

 

 

:ohmygod:

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

With 3pm openings for now fully summer openers that draw families, you're really gonna wanna comp to movies that got the same "almost full 4th day" audience vs spring/fall ones where folks are all in school.  Since these movies will get lots of walkups as just another summer weekday movie, and it will be more than a normal Thursday family-drawing movie sees...

 

So, Transformers might not be the worst comp for both openers this week...same for Spidey...both of this week's movies could have that same very late swell and effective 4 day weekend in 3 numbers...

 

Edit to Add: Blackening is the exception as not a family drawing movie and not a 3pm open (its previews start at 6pm here), so it can comp to any similar movie at any time of year...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Are there any fan screenings for flash this week.

 

What's the worst possible scenario for this  and best possible ?

 

Just bizzare this is looking like a reverse of transformers last week and to think that had middling reviews.

 

Today!

 

Those aren’t particularly meaningful terms (different people might interpret it to mean a bottom 2% scenario vs a bottom 0.2% scenario which would be a huge diff in nums presented without any diff in actual projection!) but taking things from the more extreme end, 8.5*5.5-> 47 & 12*7.1 -> 85   
 

CBMs in established universes about previously established characters (and *especially* multiple previously established characters meeting for the first time) can play very differently than pseudo first entry GA popcorn action stuff

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GOGODanca Box Office Gold

GOGODanca

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

The Flash potentially opening under a Transformers movie that had middling reviews overall and shit reviews from top critics is kinda mind-boggling. Let's see if it continues to fall or has any sort of comeback in this final week.

well tbf the flash has kinda shit reviews from top critics as well

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Dragoncaine Sleeper Hit

Dragoncaine

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

well tbf the flash has kinda shit reviews from top critics as well

Average rating matters here, though. 6/10 is passable, but disappointing. 4/10 is really bad. On MC, The Flash is currently at a 60, and Transformers at a 42.

Edited by Dragoncaine
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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

The Flash potentially opening under a Transformers movie that had middling reviews overall and shit reviews from top critics is kinda mind-boggling. Let's see if it continues to fall or has any sort of comeback in this final week.

It's not that surprising when you really think about it. The Flash is a highly controversial movie that is part of both a dead franchise and a genre audiences are losing faith in. On the other hand, Transformers is benefiting from brand nostalgia and being a breezy, standalone crowdpleaser barely requiring any primers. Said brand is also not held up to a critical standard, so middling reviews won't affect it too badly unless it's particularly bad.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Are there any fan screenings for flash this week.

 

What's the worst possible scenario for this  and best possible ?

 

Just bizzare this is looking like a reverse of transformers last week and to think that had middling reviews.

 

There’s one here today. I think all of them are on the 12th 

 

worst case: sub $10M previews sub $60M OW

best case: $12M+ $80M OW 

 

i believe @M37 is going to give an in-depth analysis today 

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JWR Box Office Gold

JWR

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It's not that surprising when you really think about it. The Flash is a highly controversial movie that is part of both a dead franchise and a genre audiences are losing faith in. On the other hand, Transformers is benefiting from brand nostalgia and being a breezy, standalone crowdpleaser barely requiring any primers. Said brand is also not held up to a critical standard, so middling reviews won't affect it too badly unless it's particularly bad.

 

Most of this is spot on... minus the "losing faith" part.

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RamblinRed Box Office Gold

RamblinRed

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Average rating matters here, though. 6/10 is passable, but disappointing. 4/10 is really bad. On MC, The Flash is currently at a 60, and Transformers at a 42.

Agree, though it probably also matters that while TF's critics reviews are relatively poor, it's audience reactions are a very solid 91%.

Flash has to be hoping for strong audience reviews.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
On 6/9/2023 at 8:52 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 7830/301099 124747.08 2145 shows +2775

Friday - 8916/482205 130981.32 3282 shows +3899

 

 

Elemental MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 11317/301405 177836.43 2151 shows

Friday - 14317/482882 207658.53 3292 shows

 

Previews are from yesterday night and Friday this morning. Let us see how things go this week. 

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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted
On 6/11/2023 at 12:18 AM, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 2155 18907 11.40%

 

Total Seats Sold The Past Two Days: 217

 

Comp - T-5

0.331x of The Batman (7.15M)

0.862x of Jurassic World 3 (15.52M)

0.295x of Thor 4 (8.55M)

1.732x of Black Adam (13.16M)

0.713x of Avatar 2 (12.13M)

0.398x of Ant-Man 3 (6.97M)

0.483x of Guardians 3 (8.45M)

0.797x of Spider-Verse (13.83M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 2337 18907 12.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 182

 

Comp - T-4

0.337x of The Batman (7.28M)

0.860x of Jurassic World 3 (15.48M)

0.302x of Thor 4 (8.77M)

1.679x of Black Adam (12.76M)

0.706x of Avatar 2 (12M)

0.420x of Ant-Man 3 (7.34M)

0.498x of Guardians 3 (8.72M)

0.778x of Spider-Verse (13.49M)

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rehpyc Indie Sensation

rehpyc

Posted
Posted

T-4 The Flash

BA: 11.1M

JW4: 10.8M

AtSV: 10.1M

FX: 11.2M

RotB: 12.6M

 

To no surprise vs. its comps starting to grow and a higher rate in their last week, this thing is breaking down fast. Applying some polynomial trends vs. the daily growth projections, and this is pointing to 9M w/ good potential of lower.

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efialtes76 Summer Tentpole

efialtes76

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Father's Day will luckily give The Flash a good IM, otherwise under Transformers would not just be a possibility but arguably the more likely option.

Good joke

The Flash will make more OW.

I bet you my account in this forum...

Edited by efialtes76
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