The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

Indiana Jones marketing has been horrific, I have see next to nothing for this. 

[filmlover]

I've seen plenty of marketing for Indiana Jones, but at the end of the day I guess they can only do so much when there's a general sense of apathy in the air towards the movie in question. The hype for the July heavy-hitters (the pair of 7/21 openers, in particular) feels a lot more genuine. 

[rehpyc]

21 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Indy T-2

NTTD: 6.55M

GA: 8.79M

JWD: 6.96M

JW4: 8.73M

Flash: 7.67M

TLM: 8.21M

FX: 9.36M

Indy T-1 lackluster final push..

NTTD: 6.17M

GA: 7.88M

JWD: 6.81M

JW4: 8.27M

Flash: 7.21M

TLM: 7.58M

FX: 8.79M

[filmlover]

Barbenheimer: ‘Barbie’ Tracking for Beatific $70M- $80M Opening, Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ Targets $40M

 

‘Barbie’ Tracking for Beatific $80M Opening, ‘Oppenheimer’ Eyes $40M – The Hollywood Reporter

[Ryan Reynolds]

Barbie - 100m

Oppenheimer - 60m

[PrinceRico]

37 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Indiana Jones marketing has been horrific, I have see next to nothing for this. 

There has been a lot of marketing but like the Flash people Just don’t have any interest in it.

[Maggie]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

Barbie - 100m

Oppenheimer - 60m

Same thoughts

[filmlover]

Barbie opening higher than what The Flash is looking to make in total would be both incredible and hilarious at the same time.

 

Between the tracking and the early sales, I don't know how anyone could doubt this will be huge at this point. The hype is real (and not some Internet thing).

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Barbenheimer: ‘Barbie’ Tracking for Beatific $70M- $80M Opening, Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ Targets $40M

 

‘Barbie’ Tracking for Beatific $80M Opening, ‘Oppenheimer’ Eyes $40M – The Hollywood Reporter

 

[Cmasterclay]

Barbie being a hit is a lock at this point, Oppenheimer is more of the question. The hype is very real for it among adults that I personally know in a way it isn't for Indy and MI though.

[The GOAT]

What is $100Mil? like 7-8 million tickets, particularly leaning the Cities and Coastal Regions? 

Edited June 29, 2023 by The GOAT

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Barbie being a hit is a lock at this point, Oppenheimer is more of the question. The hype is very real for it among adults that I personally know in a way it isn't for Indy and MI though.

If I had to bet, it would be on Barbie over either of the two. Oppenheimer’s hype on my end just isn’t there. I’ve seen more hype for Indiana Jones among my circle than either M:I or Oppenheimer, despite me being excited for the latter, likely I’ll be going to the theater by myself.

 

Barbie is just completely different though. I have people on my Twitter feed that I have never even seen talking about movies talking about it. It’s going to be an event, especially among the women crowd.

[dxmatrixdt]

50 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Indiana Jones marketing has been horrific, I have see next to nothing for this. 

the staple of the marketing is the start of the main theme when he is parachuting out of a plane.  people must have thought this was breaking too much ground with that introduction.

[reddevil19]

That tracking seems right for now, if a bit conservative for Barbie, but obviously we'll know more as we get closer - for now the question remains what the multiplier will be for Barbie and how standard showings perform for Oppenheimer (or, for that matter, how many screens it gets). Barbie over 100 is more likely than not all things considered and even with the big fan-rush for Nolan, you still have to consider a 6-7 IM for Oppenheimer's weekend as doable (and if the previews end up in the 7-8M range, then it should be pushing 50 million).

 

 

[filmlover]

An opening similar to Dunkirk should be in the cards for Oppenheimer with how much IMAX and other premium formats should boost the numbers. 

 

Huge weekend that's going to be. Been a while since we had two movies with such exciting potential coming out on the same frame.

[JustWatching]

On 6/27/2023 at 9:43 AM, JustWatching said:

A little anecdata from my local Midwest Cinemark (all standard screens):

 

Indy: 81 tix sold for the weekend, including previews, so far. 33 for Thursday, 27/2/19 for FSS. That’s actually better than I expected. Heavily weighted toward matinee showings, which makes sense if we are expecting an older crowd.

 

Ruby: Poor Ruby. A whopping five, count ‘em, five tix sold so far. One for Thursday and four for Friday. If it breaks any records it looks like they will be all the wrong ones.

Quick update with shows set to start in a few hours. Indy is up to 137 tix, 59 for today, 47/9/22 FSS. Poor Ruby has still sold just one ticket for today. I didn’t have the heart to look at the rest of the weekend…

[TheFlatLannister]

$70M-$80M seems right. I'm on the more on the optimistic side $90M+

 

Barbie is all but locked to open over the Flash 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I am believing 100m for Barbie now. And I think Oppenheimer can manage 50m with a review bump. I still think it'll struggle with walk-ups and regular screens. 

[vale9001]

105 Barbie 

55 Nolan 

[vale9001]

Anyway that weekend is gonna be finally very big but seeing as depressing seems the rest of the Summer one movie on the 21st and one movie on the 28th would have been better for the market.