The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Bros T-18: 25.22% Awareness, 4.38 Interest

Till T-46: 21.23%, 5.27

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-172: 33.7%, 4.91

 

Pearl T-4: 16.45% Awareness, 4.36 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Night House w/ 18.09% Awareness & 5.17 Interest, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, The Cursed w/ 25.12% & 5.12, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, Men w/ 18.5% & 4.7, Barbarian w/ 20.52% & 4.98

*Note Pearl's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digits opening

General Interest: 28% chance of double digits

Horror Awareness: 14% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 43% chance of double digits

 

The Woman King T-4: 34.4% Awareness, 5.16 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Ambulance 38.27 & 5.7, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Beast 39.28% & 5.68

*Note The Woman King's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

[M37]

23 minutes ago, Eric-occhio said:

The Woman King T-4: 34.4% Awareness, 5.16 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Ambulance 38.27 & 5.7, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Beast 39.28% & 5.68

*Note The Woman King's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

That seems to point to low to maybe mid-teens opening 

 

As I mentioned in weekend thread, do think it could still have a weekend run/drops similar Crawdads, though without benefit of summer weekdays and holidays, and still finish with a decent $50-$60M, if not higher 

[el sid]

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, September 15:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): error - all movies have error reports on that day
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 54 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 29 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 148.

 

Comps (not easy to find, both counted on Monday for Thursday): Nope had 1.544 sold tickets

and The 355 had 87 sold tickets.

 

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 16:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 39 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 155.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Nope (44.4M OW) had 1.616 sold tickets,

The Northman (at least also an adventure film with a setting in a previous century; 12.3M) had 346 sold tickets
The 355 (4.6M) had 118 sold tickets

and The Kitchen (5.5M) had 171 sold tickets.

Respect (8.8M) had on Wednesday of its release week 129 sold tickets.
So the presales are a bit muted so far in my theaters. But let's see what happens in the next few days. E.g. The Northman looked way better on Monday than on Friday because the jumps were pretty small in its last week. Maybe it's the opposite here?

 

Pearl had today 102 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets,

Beast had 147 sold tickets,

The Invitation had 96 sold tickets

and The Barbarian had 156 sold tickets.

 

And for Friday it had today 98 sold tickets (with showtimes in 7 theaters).

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): X (4.3M OW) had 50 sold tickets

Beast (11.6M) had 248 sold ticket

The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets

and Barbarian (10M) had 70 sold tickets.
Overall not bad so far (for that kind of movie).
 

Edited September 12, 2022 by el sid

[CJohn]

Fuck these Woman King numbers. 10-12M OW it is.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Never tracked before but just looking at 7 AMCs 

 

Avatar Re-Release Friday sales

 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30: 12 tickets sold across 8 showtimes

 

AMC fountain 18: 19 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC deerbrook 24: 0 tickets sold across 6 showtimes

 

AMC Willowbrook 24: 14 tickets sold across 9 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 4 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 0 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Metropark square 10: 14 tickets sold across 2 showtimes 

 

Decided to look at 7 cinemarks and here is the data for them:

 

Cinemark Hollywood Movies: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Tinseltown USA:  0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Memorial City: 5 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Rosenberg 12: 6 tickets sold across 3 showtimes 

 

Cinemark 19 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 17 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cut by Cinemark express: 6 tickets sold across 3 showtimes 

Another Houstonian I see.

[Old Spice]

Avatar has sold a total of 8 tix across 9 showtimes for Friday the 23rd in the three theaters I track in the Salt Lake Valley. All showings are 3D.

 

Curious to see if Darling generates any heat tomorrow. I normally wouldn't expect something like this to start fast out of the gate, but then, pretty much everything about this movie's history is odd, so...

[abracadabra1998]

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

The Woman King:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	28	22	99	4772	2.07

 

Comps:

Beast: 1.94x (1.8M)

 

I'll add Barbarian as a comparison tomorrow, not the best comps but they'll have to do. For what it's worth I don't think The Woman King will be very pre-sales heavy.

 

See How They Run:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	17	2	12	1547	0.78

 

Lmao, total Disney dump.

[Eric Prime]

Pearl Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	54	2410	2.24%

 

Comp

0.400x of Old T-3 (600K)

1.929x of The Night House T-3 (501K)

0.947x of Antlers T-3 (350K)

0.267x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (187K)

0.730x of X T-3 (321K)

1.317x of Firestarter T-3 (495K)

0.857x of Men T-3 (363K)

0.964x of The Invitation T-3 (747K)

0.651x of Barbarian T-3 (553K)

[Eric Prime]

The Woman King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	304	11907	2.55%

 

Comp

10.483x of Respect T-3 (6.81M)

1.288x of Candyman T-3 (2.45M)

0.322x of Nope T-3 (2.06M)

2.815x of Beast T-3 (2.60M)

 

So yeah, this movie was destined to overindex here no matter what. And maybe this is an overperformance, but still even moving down a couple pegs allows for a potential 20M+, which would still be really good for the film. I'm hopeful at the moment.

[John2015]

11 hours ago, el sid said:

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, September 15:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): error - all movies have error reports on that day
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 54 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 29 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 148.

 

Comps (not easy to find, both counted on Monday for Thursday): Nope had 1.544 sold tickets

and The 355 had 87 sold tickets.

 

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 16:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 39 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 155.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Nope (44.4M OW) had 1.616 sold tickets,

The Northman (at least also an adventure film with a setting in a previous century; 12.3M) had 346 sold tickets
The 355 (4.6M) had 118 sold tickets

and The Kitchen (5.5M) had 171 sold tickets.

Respect (8.8M) had on Wednesday of its release week 129 sold tickets.
So the presales are a bit muted so far in my theaters. But let's see what happens in the next few days. E.g. The Northman looked way better on Monday than on Friday because the jumps were pretty small in its last week. Maybe it's the opposite here?

 

Pearl had today 102 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets,

Beast had 147 sold tickets,

The Invitation had 96 sold tickets

and The Barbarian had 156 sold tickets.

 

And for Friday it had today 98 sold tickets (with showtimes in 7 theaters).

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): X (4.3M OW) had 50 sold tickets

Beast (11.6M) had 248 sold ticket

The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets

and Barbarian (10M) had 70 sold tickets.
Overall not bad so far (for that kind of movie).
 

 

The Northman is different than The Woman King.

 

The Northman is a violent R-rated film, and the audience were mostly older male.

The Woman King is PG-13, which would help the film to get more female and family audience.  The walk-up audience should be much boarder than The Northman.

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by John2015

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, John2015 said:

 

The Northman is different than The Woman King.

 

The Northman is a violent R-rated film, and the audience were mostly older male.

The Woman King is PG-13, which would help the film to get more female and family audience.  The walk-up audience should be much boarder than The Northman.

 

Interestingly, both have the exact same rating here in the UK: a 15. So the Northman couldn’t have been that violent. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Interestingly, both have the exact same rating here in the UK: a 15. So the Northman couldn’t have been that violent. 

It's definitely a lot more violent than other PG-13 films that got rated 15 in the UK (suicide squad comes to mind).

[Old Spice]

DWD is off to a strong start at the Salt Lake Cinemark Sugarhouse. Currently 20- edit: make that 28 as of 2:00 PM- tix sold for preview night over two showtimes. This compares to a final pre-sale total of 28 for Bullet Train and 30 for Black Phone, so the old adage that there's no such thing as bad publicity seems to be holding thus far.

Edited September 13, 2022 by A Star is Delayed
typo

[Gokira2012]

Looks like the woman king is gonna bomb

[romeross]

2 hours ago, Gokira2012 said:

Looks like the woman king is gonna bomb

20ml or over?

[Flopped]

I feel like Pear will bomb hard. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 hours ago, romeross said:

20ml or over?

Under.

[AJG]

8 hours ago, Gokira2012 said:

Looks like the woman king is gonna bomb

 

I won't lie: It's the kind of movie I would watch but it looks super corny. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by AJG

[stripe]

We don't have enough data to suggest Woman King will flop or not...

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, AJG said:

 

I won't lie: It's the kind of movie I would watch but it looks super corny. 

Yeah im pretty surprised how good the reviews are. I thought the trailers looked pretty cheap and just fine