The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

If RT score holds and also WOM is similar, the sales I am seeing Woman King will be a winner. A big one.

 

[Nikostar]

Sales for the Woman King also looks great in my area. The reviews are staller.

[Eric Prime]

On 9/13/2022 at 12:36 AM, The Eric King said:

Pearl Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	54	2410	2.24%

 

Comp

0.400x of Old T-3 (600K)

1.929x of The Night House T-3 (501K)

0.947x of Antlers T-3 (350K)

0.267x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (187K)

0.730x of X T-3 (321K)

1.317x of Firestarter T-3 (495K)

0.857x of Men T-3 (363K)

0.964x of The Invitation T-3 (747K)

0.651x of Barbarian T-3 (553K)

Pearl Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	85	2701	2.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.447x of Old T-2 (671K)

2.125x of The Night Hosue T-2 (552K)

1.197x of Antlers T-2 (443K)

0.347x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (243K)

0.914x of X T-2 (402K)

1.465x of Firestarter T-2 (550K)

0.858x of Men T-2 (363K)

1.250x of The Invitation T-2 (969K)

0.644x of Barbarian T-2 (547K)

[Eric Prime]

On 9/13/2022 at 12:46 AM, The Eric King said:

The Woman King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	304	11907	2.55%

 

Comp

10.483x of Respect T-3 (6.81M)

1.288x of Candyman T-3 (2.45M)

0.322x of Nope T-3 (2.06M)

2.815x of Beast T-3 (2.60M)

 

So yeah, this movie was destined to overindex here no matter what. And maybe this is an overperformance, but still even moving down a couple pegs allows for a potential 20M+, which would still be really good for the film. I'm hopeful at the moment.

The Woman King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	418	12903	3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 114

 

Comp

3.870x of Respect T-2 (2.51M)

1.088x of Candyman T-2 (2.07M)

0.333x of Nope T-2 (2.13M)

2.903x of Beast T-2 (2.68M)

[AJG]

43 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah im pretty surprised how good the reviews are. I thought the trailers looked pretty cheap and just fine

 

It really reminds me of those historical Indian epic films like RRR. 

 

RRR is great but it's a really hard sell to western audiences based on its trailers.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Amsterdam T-23: 21.35% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Empire of Light T-86: 12.39%, 4.5

The Little Mermaid T-254: 51.2%, 5.86

Elemental T-275: 26.52%, 5.58

Indiana Jones 5 T-289: 36.01%, 6.22

Mission: Impossible 7 Part 1 T-303: 36.13%, 5.68

 

Pearl T-2: 16.59% Awareness, 4.42 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Night House w/ 18.09% Awareness & 5.17 Interest, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, The Cursed w/ 25.12% & 5.12, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, Men w/ 18.5% & 4.7, Barbarian w/ 20.52% & 4.98

*Note Pearl's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digits opening

General Interest: 28% chance of double digits

Horror Awareness: 14% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 43% chance of double digits

 

The Woman King T-2: 36.58% Awareness, 5.16 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Ambulance 38.27 & 5.7, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Beast 39.28% & 5.68

*Note The Woman King's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

 

Black Adam T-37: 47.1% Awareness, 5.86 Interest

Comps (All T-30): Shang-Chi w/ 33.23% Awareness & 5.11 Interest, Venom 2 w/ 46.79% & 5.72, Eternals w/ 33.3% & 5.61

 

T-30 General Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 59% chance of 70M

General Interest: 87% chance of 20M, 80% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 53% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 90M

[stripe]

Thanks for the presales update! More confident now with an opening close to 20M for Woman King

[Valonqar]

I think that WK will go comfortably over 20M cause it should be walk up friendly. It isn't a franchise to be pre-sales heavy. 

[Krissykins]

This all looks very promising for The Woman King! 

[efialtes76]

TWK, another totally inaccurate Hollywood historical movie...

[Cmasterclay]

MAGAites who don't even acknowledge who won the last election suddenly experts on the history of 1820s Africa this week

[el sid]

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow, September 15:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 85 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 14 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 78 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 72 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 257.

 

Up good 74% since Monday.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Thursday): 355 had 175 sold tickets

and Beast had 202 sold tickets.

 

The Woman King, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 16:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 192 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 36 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1(5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 64 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 383.

Up very nice 147% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Respect had 129 sold tickets,

The Northman had 465 sold tickets (it's not the best comp, I just keep it to show you the progress that TWK made since Monday → The Northman had 346 sold tickets on Monday and TWK had only 148 sold tickets)
355 had 139 sold tickets,

The Kitchen had 243 sold tickets

and Beast had 218 sold tickets.

 

Way better than on Monday (I had a feeling this could happen 😉). Now with good walk-ups 20M+ are absolutely possible judging also from my theaters.

 

Pearl had today 160 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 7 theaters).

Up 57% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): X had 214 sold tickets,

The Forever Purge had 168 sold tickets,

Beast had 202 sold tickets,

The Invitation had 176 sold tickets,

The Barbarian had 222 sold tickets

and Firestarter had 144 sold tickets.

 

And for Friday it had today 161 sold tickets (also with showtimes in 7 theaters).

Up 64% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Beast had 218 sold ticket,

The Invitation had 167 sold tickets,

Barbarian had 140 sold tickets

and Firestarter had 115 sold tickets.
(No X comps for that day).
Hard to say if the past two days were good or not. From most comps its presales looks pretty ok but of all things the comparison with X is not convincing.

 

PS: I'm not sure if I can count tomorrow, if not then maybe Friday again.

Edited September 14, 2022 by el sid

[filmlover]

Viola Davis-Led ‘The Woman King’ Takes on Sluggish Box Office, Aims for $15 Million Debut https://t.co/atWOr2Ihk9

— Variety (@Variety) September 14, 2022

[ringedmortality]

So we're getting at least three, and maybe four, 10+ opening weekends this month?

[Valonqar]

More like 2 x 20+cause both WK and DWD are looking good for that. Variety doesn't do tracking, they usually underestimate (new IP) or overestimate (franchise). Bros could break out too, reviews so far are good and there's nothing like it in theaters but there's underserved audience that may show up in force. Also Smile, horror can go either way depending on a premise.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Valonqar

[Tinalera]

Oh hey, its September...lessee....oh found this kicking about:

 

SMILE (No comps)

SW/Toronto Ontario

Thurs Sept 29 and Fri Sept 30 

4 Theatres, 8 shows Thurs, 4 theatres 16 friday:

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	8	2	1950	1952	0.0010
Fri	4	16	2	3810	3812	0.0005

 

 

Yes, not much but though Id count SMILE. Dont have tracking till Friday for comps.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

So we're getting at least three, and maybe four, 10+ opening weekends this month?

Should be four between Barbarian, The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, and the Avatar re-release. $10M+ should easily happen for Bros and Smile as well but those open on the last day of the month so most of the money they make will count towards October.

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/12/2022 at 7:12 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

The Woman King:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	28	22	99	4772	2.07

 

Comps:

Beast: 1.94x (1.8M)

 

I'll add Barbarian as a comparison tomorrow, not the best comps but they'll have to do. For what it's worth I don't think The Woman King will be very pre-sales heavy.

 

See How They Run:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	17	2	12	1547	0.78

 

Lmao, total Disney dump.

 

Twin Cities Thursday Night Previews:

 

Wasn't able to check yesterday so "new" numbers will be for two days.

 

The Woman King (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	37	95	194	5855	3.31

 

Comps:

Beast: 1.8x (1.66 M)

Barbarian: 1.94x (1.65M)

 

Weirdly point to around the same number, but I think something like The Woman King could under index in the Upper Midwest. I could see this reach 2 Million in previews based on other posts here.

 

See How They Run (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	26	18	30	2790	1.08

 

Comps:

Three Thousand Years of Longing: 0.23x 

 

Is this gonna reach 1 Million for the weekend lol neither Variety or Deadline even mention it in their weekend preview, Disney is just burying this entirely wtf

[John2015]

notfabio in HSX:

Did another scan of DON'T WORRY DARLING, I'm no Jatinder, but the regular Thursday pre-opens look way better than a teens opening.

 

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=551473

[GOGODanca]

On 9/12/2022 at 1:24 PM, GOGODanca said:

Never tracked before but just looking at 7 AMCs 

 

Avatar Re-Release Friday sales

 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30: 12 tickets sold across 8 showtimes

 

AMC fountain 18: 19 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC deerbrook 24: 0 tickets sold across 6 showtimes

 

AMC Willowbrook 24: 14 tickets sold across 9 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 4 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 0 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Metropark square 10: 14 tickets sold across 2 showtimes 

 

Decided to look at 7 cinemarks and here is the data for them:

 

Cinemark Hollywood Movies: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Tinseltown USA:  0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Memorial City: 5 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Rosenberg 12: 6 tickets sold across 3 showtimes 

 

Cinemark 19 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 17 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cut by Cinemark express: 6 tickets sold across 3 showtimes 

Spoiler

Update about 51 hours later:

AMC Gulf Pointe 30: 29 tickets sold across 8 showtimes

 

AMC fountain 18: 37 tickets sold across 7 showtimes

 

AMC deerbrook 24: 4 tickets sold across 6 showtimes

 

AMC Willowbrook 24: 36 tickets sold across 9 showtimes

 

AMC Spring 10: 4 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Katy Mills 20: 13 tickets sold across 4 showtimes

 

AMC Metropark square 10: 30 tickets sold across 2 showtimes 

 

Decided to look at 7 cinemarks and here is the data for them:

 

Cinemark Hollywood Movies: 11 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Tinseltown USA:  2 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Memorial City: 13 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark Rosenberg 12:  12 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 19 and XD:  9 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cinemark 17 and XD: 0 tickets sold across 3 showtimes

 

Cut by Cinemark express:  10 tickets sold across 3 showtimes