Eric Prime Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, jedijake said: Indiana Jones 5 over $500 million domestic??? What????? I love Indy, but it will be lucky to make much over $320 million domestic. And Aqua2 will probably make in that range also, even with the holiday release date. I already explained this many times before, but Indy has everything going for it. 80s nostalgia/legacy sequel premise, iconic brand that's still super popular, Harrison Ford returning to his most iconic role, the Disney marketing machine, a dynamite cast, these kinds adventure movies generating solid business recently and James Mangold directing, who I feel has a better understanding on what modern audiences want in blockbusters compared to Spielberg (not a diss of course, Spielberg will always be the GOAT). Plus this the 15-year gap between this and Crystal Skull is perfect. Long enough where the bad taste of the last film has gone away and long enough where people feel the nostalgia bug again. Plus despite poor audience reception, Crystal Skull still adjusts to 405M in today's money. 320M would frankly be a 20% fall from admissions. That just doesn't feel right to me. Also scrolling down a little bit, but the new Ghostbusters film will do fine. I couldn't stand Afterlife, but the fanbase was into it, the franchise is still popular, and WOM was pretty solid. They won't have the nostalgia hook, but that's canceled out by Christmas legs. It should at least match the first movie. May even outgross it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 (edited) I don't want to dare to dream $500m just yet, but if they do go out of their way to sell Indy 5 as Ford's last adventure, then I can see it be really big. In Mangold, I trust. Edited November 5, 2022 by cookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, filmlover said: The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance. In fact I just checked their schedule and this is what their 2023 looks like: 2/17: Ant-Man 5/5: Guardians 3 5/26: The Little Mermaid 6/16: Elemental 6/30: Indiana Jones 7/28: The Marvels 8/11: Haunted Mansion 9/15: A Haunting in Venice 10/6: True Love 11/22: Wish Yeah...they clearly didn't think that Blade was gonna be hit with production setbacks. Honestly might be worth it to go bold and put The Marvels around Christmas and see how everybody else reacts to the move. Their summer slate will be fine without it given how stacked it already is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 On 11/5/2022 at 3:09 PM, Eric Killmonger said: 1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M 2. The Little Mermaid: 435M 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M 4. Mario: 375M 5. Aquaman 2: 350M 6. Ant-Man 3: 325M 7. Dune Part Two: 300M 8. The Marvels: 280M 9. Barbie: 270M 10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M No Mission: Impossible 7 after great reception of the last one and TGM success? Not even $251m DOM (= less admission than 5 out of 6 films so far)? I think You're wrong. On 11/5/2022 at 5:13 PM, YM! said: Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $215m/$500m The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m Aquaman 2 - $90m/$380m The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$360m The Marvels - $135m/$325m Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $105m/$120m/$295m Blue Beetle - $80m/$245m Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m Dune Part 2 - $80m/$240m 105/245 for Mission: Impossible? What?! These movies always have great legs, these are X3: The Last Stand numbers. Blue Beetle at $245m while Black Adam (also DC origin story, but with huge star - Dwayne Johnson) will be lucky to finish with $170m... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 I mean I'm still thinking around 240M for Mission: Impossible, which is still a solid increase from Fallout. But the thing with me is that Mission: Impossible is already very established and people already know whether they like these movies or not and whether they will check it out. With Top Gun, all you needed was seeing the original movie to get up to speed. And even then, it was designed where you didn't have to see the first film to get what's going on. By this point, everybody knows about Mission: Impossible, what's in it, and whether they want to see it or not. It's a bigger hurdle to get casuals invested in yet another sequel, especially since, at least so far, this looks to be more of the same that people expect and are familiar with. Only way you can really boost interest further is if you got a major star on the level of Cruise in the movie, like Denzel as the bad guy or whatever, but that's not what they are doing here. Anecdotal, but I took my parents to see Top Gun: Maverick and they absolutely loved it. But I probably won't take them to Dead Reckoning because they never watched the other Mission: Impossible movies and they don't really have a strong urge to. That means something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 On 11/5/2022 at 11:57 AM, filmlover said: The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance. Really? Why not? Thanksgiving Walt Disney Animation films are a fairly long standing tradition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Verrows said: Really? Why not? Thanksgiving Walt Disney Animation films are a fairly long standing tradition. I think they mean they don’t think Wish will be Disney’s final film of 2023. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 6 hours ago, Juby said: Blue Beetle at $245m while Black Adam (also DC origin story, but with huge star - Dwayne Johnson) will be lucky to finish with $170m... The key difference is I expect Blue Beetle to look good and be a good movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, WittyUsername said: I think they mean they don’t think Wish will be Disney’s final film of 2023. Ah, that makes sense. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 11/9/2022 at 3:20 PM, Eric Killmonger said: I mean I'm still thinking around 240M for Mission: Impossible, which is still a solid increase from Fallout. That won't be an increace at all. Average ticket price for Fallout in 2018 was probably around $10, for DR1 will be close to $13. Even the same admission should put the next instalment at around $285m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Gato Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 On 11/9/2022 at 12:27 PM, YM! said: The key difference is I expect Blue Beetle to look good and be a good movie. Judging by recent test screenings and their descriptions (Spiderverse + Iron Man), I think your expectations will be met. I’m expecting a good time and comedy gold from Xolo/George Lopez interacting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Probably been talked about a lot already but I just can't get over the Summer 2023 gamut starting in 6 months. Just be default there are going to be several PERCEIVED underperformers. That and we also know the schedule will not remain as is. But still.... Going to need to take out a loan for the amount of movie tickets I'm going to be buying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 (edited) . Edited December 26, 2022 by Grebacio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Avatar 3 with $1.3b domestic in #1 Guardians volume 3 at #2 little merdmiad #3 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptNathanBrittles Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 (edited) People are out of their minds if they think ANT-MAN 3 is coming close to $300m. Even with IW/EG tie-in and hype ANT-MAN 2 could only muster $215m. 😄 Edited November 29, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 (edited) deleted Edited November 30, 2022 by Asyulus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 I think The Flash could have been really big if no actor troubles. Like i would have predicted 350M+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Im Indy believer, 500M+ DOM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SullyJake Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 So far I think MI:7 is the only film that breaks 1b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...