2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[AN9815]

My predictions: 

 

1. Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: $296m DOM - $964m WW

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: $387m DOM - $912m WW

3. The Little Mermaid: $342m DOM - $875m WW

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning. Part 1: $274m DOM - $860m WW

5. Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3: $403m DOM - $824m WW

6. Super Mario Bros: $328m DOM - $757m WW

7. Fast X: $148m DOM - $710m WW

8. The Marvels: $264m DOM - $705m WW

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: $225m DOM - $562m WW

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $232m DOM - $520m WW

 

Although I haven't predicted any movie to cross the billion mark, I think at least one of them will surprise and do it. The ones with the strongest chance of doing it are the ones in my Top 5. Aquaman 2 depends mainly on China, if it releases there, it is well liked and COVID is not an issue anymore then I think it will likely do enough there to cross 1 billion. Indiana Jones 5 is a wildcard, I think if it is very well received it could pull do really well like Top Gun: Maverick. The Little Mermaid would have been a safe bet before COVID, but now, between families getting used to watch Disney movies on D+ and the negative response from some racist people I think it will likely miss it, would love to be wrong though. Mission: Impossible is also a strong contender but I don't think the jump will be that big, plus the fact that it is a "Part 1" will have a slightly negative impact. Finally, Guardians 3 would have done it with a China release date but now that Marvel is no longer being released there I think it will not have enough fuel to make it. 

[baerrtt]

With regards to The Little Mermaid most of the family movies that have underperformed largely due to the pandemic are animated which this isn't. Also the anti woke idiots will not harm the film's box office success.....online negativity from a minority really doesn't count and should stop being brought up as a barrier. Also I feel TGM 's pro military theme,like American Sniper 7 years ago,is such a huge factor into why it's done so well I can't see the next Indy movie,however good it turns out to be, emulating it's success given it obviously doesn't have that in it's side.

[poweranimals]

I know they probably won't but I think that Paramount should move Transformers to September. There's literally no competition in September and it's gonna get lost in June.

 

There's no way it can compete against the likes of Spider-Verse, Flash, and Indy.

Edited January 2, 2023 by poweranimals

[JWR]

13 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I know they probably won't but I think that Paramount should move Transformers to September. There's literally no competition in September and it's gonna get lost in June.

 

There's no way it can compete against the likes of Spider-Verse, Flash, and Indy.

 

April, September, or even October by this point. 

[poweranimals]

26 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

April, September, or even October by this point. 

Yeah. true. October's kinda dead too outside of Kraven which has bomb written all over it. I probably wouldn't move it up to April this late in the game though.

[Starphanluke]

8 hours ago, poweranimals said:

I know they probably won't but I think that Paramount should move Transformers to September. There's literally no competition in September and it's gonna get lost in June.

 

There's no way it can compete against the likes of Spider-Verse, Flash, and Indy.

My wild prediction is that it easily out performs both Spider-Verse and Flash. I really think that movie's going to do better than most people on this board think.

[WorkingonaName]

1. Super Mario Bros: $1.1B

2. Indiana Jones And the Dial Of Destiny: $1.030B

3. The Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 3: $950M

4. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom: $850M

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning part 1: $850M

6. Dune 2: $800M

7. The Flash: $750M

8. The Little Mermaid: $700M

9. The Marvel: $654M

10. Barbie: $616M

[kayumanggi]

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jan 06 - 08 / $106,235,229

2022 / Jan 07 - 09 / $062,796,729

[Cheddar Please]

I expect at least one movie this year to break out at least on the level of TGM, both DOM and WW. People always underestimate the top of the Box office to deliver the goods at least one a year

 

Spoiler

Also I'd say over 50% chance TFA goes down this year due to inflation

 

[Cheddar Please]

All I can say is if no movie this year makes over 600m DOM or 1.4B WW with all the inflation that has happened in the past 3 years than the box office is truly beyond saving

[DAJK]

27 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I expect at least one movie this year to break out at least on the level of TGM, both DOM and WW. People always underestimate the top of the Box office to deliver the goods at least one a year

 

  Hide contents

Also I'd say over 50% chance TFA goes down this year due to inflation

 

No chance with your second point. What film in the 2023 lineup could possibly take down TFA (dom, I'm assuming)?

[Cheddar Please]

17 minutes ago, DAJK said:

No chance with your second point. What film in the 2023 lineup could possibly take down TFA (dom, I'm assuming)?

Objectively nothing but at some point you just got to put down a spicy prediction to make things interesting

[poweranimals]

Hot take but I think Wonka might make more than Aquaman. At least domestically.

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, Cheddar Please said:

All I can say is if no movie this year makes over 600m DOM or 1.4B WW with all the inflation that has happened in the past 3 years than the box office is truly beyond saving

It's beyond saving. You've mistaken this round of inflation to be a good thing.

 

Edit: on the bright side, ER will be much better this year than winter.

Edited January 15, 2023 by The GOAT

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

It's beyond saving. You've mistaken this round of inflation to be a good thing.

the fact is that even AOU would've made 600m in this day and age, and if event films can't even top that, in an era where the box office is basically only being propped up by blockbusters, then what future does this industry even have

In any case, I will wait until later in the year before coming to any final conclusions

[poweranimals]

7 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Edit: on the bright side, ER will be much better this year than winter.

Meh. I don't like medical dramas. 🤪

Edited January 15, 2023 by poweranimals

[The GOAT]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

the fact is that even AOU would've made 600m in this day and age, and if event films can't even top that, in an era where the box office is basically only being propped up by blockbusters, then what future does this industry even have

In any case, I will wait until later in the year before coming to any final conclusions

Sounds like you've already come to your final conclusions, but I digress. 

 

I project Mission Impossible and Transformers to be the only billion dollar movies of 2023

[poweranimals]

14 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Sounds like you've already come to your final conclusions, but I digress. 

 

I project Mission Impossible and Transformers to be the only billion dollar movies of 2023

Transformers?! Are you kidding me? 😂

[Ronin46]

14 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Sounds like you've already come to your final conclusions, but I digress. 

 

I project Mission Impossible and Transformers to be the only billion dollar movies of 2023

 

I dont trust those Transformers trailer numbers. Seems very odd. i think it will do 100-150 domestic and do reasonable. Maybe 200M if its good but MI I think will be 250-300M.  

[marveldcfox]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Hot take but I think Wonka might make more than Aquaman. At least domestically.

Internal screenings say it is a terrible movie.