NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

From Deadline

 

 

Not sure why Deadline is projecting Sat & Sun to be softer than the prior weekend (weekend % are lower than Friday drop), so suspect all of these estimates are more likely to go up than hold or go down 

[BlaineGabbert]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not sure why Deadline is projecting Sat & Sun to be softer than the prior weekend (weekend % are lower than Friday drop), so suspect all of these estimates are more likely to go up than hold or go down 

What do you think it will finish at?

 

I'm not sure why a 6.4 mil preview would open lower than A Quiet Place part 2?

[Krissykins]

Oh. $19.5m is frontloaded for sure. 

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

I partially agree with Sean. Even though i liked the gray man alot it really didnt feel like 200M movie tbh...

Why do those people always have a cartoon display picture? Twitter should deactivate them all. 

 

 

[jma22]

55 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

An 85 mil budget movie making 250 mil WW (Elvis)? On a thin line between Ok and underperforming.

 

If you think $250M vs $85M budget it's an underperforming we dont have nothing to talk (250 vs 85 means nearly 3 times its budget)

 

It's THE SAME  if you consider Thor 4 a underperforming if Thor makes 740M ( vs 250 budget, nearly 3 times its budget)

 

If you think 3 times your budget isn't enough oookaay... but if i said the same with Thor than u are saying about Elvis  many would call me troll 

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

 

 

Still think it gets to $680/$690M range, but will need something extra to get it all the way to $700M

694.20M

[BruiseCruise]

Maybe a re-release after the Oscars?

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

would you look at that, comes in way above early estimates and all the doom and gloom was once again premature. It’s doing just fine. It lost IMAX this week and is still chugging along.

 

69% drop wasn't good and overseas wasn't good.. 

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, p a p i said:

By being good. Being well received. Having GREAT word of mouth like Shang-Chi and No Way Home. 

It's just that simple pal

The 7 week then free model was not established with people like it is now when Shang Chi arrived. In fact, it didn’t hit Disney+ until after ten weeks. 

The 45 day window people have figured out now. The drivers of MCU legs are repeat viewers, and plenty of those know the score now. 
 

As for NWH - not the same thing and didn’t show up after 45 days as different studio. 
 

Agree a great movie helps, but until they stop this ‘7 weeks then free model’ at Disney then I think we’re going to see wildly mixed performances from their movies. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by wildphantom

[Godzilla]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Oh. $19.5m is frontloaded for sure. 

It's still really good for the horror genre to see something open up to $40M+. More proof that COVID didn't kill off horror. (Pun intended)

[CJohn]

The movie will be online in 4K by August 9 (if it follows Black Phone and JW3), just in time for literally everyone else living outside of America to save money and not pay to see it, since the OS rollout starts on August 10.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, jma22 said:

If you think $250M vs $85M budget it's an underperforming we dont have nothing to talk (250 vs 85 means nearly 3 times its budget)

 

It's THE SAME  if you consider Thor 4 a underperforming if Thor makes 740M ( vs 250 budget, nearly 3 times its budget)

 

If you think 3 times your budget isn't enough oookaay... but if i said the same with Thor than u are saying about Elvis  many would call me troll 

 

That depends entirely on its marketing budget and how much the Elvis estate and what cuts Luhrmann and Hanks are getting.

 

[titanic2187]

41 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

The 7 week then free model was not established with people like it is now when Shang Chi arrived. In fact, it didn’t hit Disney+ until after ten weeks. 

The 45 day window people have figured out now. The drivers of MCU legs are repeat viewers, and plenty of those know the score now. 
 

As for NWH - not the same thing and didn’t show up after 45 days as different studio. 
 

Agree a great movie helps, but until they stop this ‘7 weeks then free model’ at Disney then I think we’re going to see wildly mixed performances from their movies. 

Even India, one of the market who famously known for its fast burning business, give a 8 weeks window to all Bollywood movies.

[BruiseCruise]

I feel like the D+ argument would hold more weight if the legs started falling off a cliff in weeks 5,6 7 after having really good early legs when in actuality DS2 and Thor collapsed from the 2nd weekend due to mixed/poor WOM and the former actually had decent late legs before D+

[Krissykins]

48 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

It's still really good for the horror genre to see something open up to $40M+. More proof that COVID didn't kill off horror. (Pun intended)

Yeh it’s still great, even moreso for original films though, since horror has already opened higher during the actual difficult months of the pandemic (A Quiet Place 2, Halloween Kills).

[vale9001]

Elvis will make more than 250M, it has great legs everywhere, for all august it will still make good weekly updates.

On a budget of 85M is a a solid success, I mean it would have been even before the pandemic/streaming era. 

 

 

Moulin Rouge made 180M on a 50M budget. Gatsby 350 M on a talked budget of 110-120M. 

If they all were flop why is he still making these high budget projects?. 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

I feel like the D+ argument would hold more weight if the legs started falling off a cliff in weeks 5,6 7 after having really good early legs when in actuality DS2 and Thor collapsed from the 2nd weekend due to mixed/poor WOM and the former actually had decent late legs before D+

I think it is more like people avoiding a film in 1,2,3,4&5 week, thinking it will be free to stream in 5,6,7 weeks

[BlaineGabbert]

How can Deadline predict 44.5 mil opening when it doesn't know the walk up numbers? Its saying that it'll make only 25 mil sat and sun?

[raulbalarezo]

Finally saw Thor. Holy Shit that was bad.

[BruiseCruise]

9 minutes ago, BlaineGabbert said:

How can Deadline predict 44.5 mil opening when it doesn't know the walk up numbers? Its saying that it'll make only 25 mil sat and sun?

If Nope follows the same Sat-Sun holds as Black Phone it comes out to 45.04m and thats a film you'd expect to be a little less frontloaded cause Derrickson doesn't have the draw of Peele so 44.5 is quite reasonable imo