Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[JustLurking]

That's a solid drop internationally, shame it doesn't look like Disney will let it play out longer.

Edited October 2, 2022 by JustLurking

[simoimo19]

Overseas, the re-release has earned $39.5M in 51 markets, for a $58.1M global total. Top market totals include France ($5.8M), Germany ($2.9M), U.K. ($2.6M), Italy ($2.6M), South Korea ($2.3M), and Mexico ($2.2M).

[Jiffy]

On 9/29/2022 at 4:17 PM, Wolverpool XXR said:

yeah depending on how bad things get overseas in the next three months against the dollar, it could literally end up being a $1 billion ER loss vs 3 years ago.

Big shame.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Big shame.

 

it just means Avatar 3 is guarantued to make more than 2

[hw64]

On 9/29/2022 at 9:17 PM, Wolverpool XXR said:

yeah depending on how bad things get overseas in the next three months against the dollar, it could literally end up being a $1 billion ER loss vs 3 years ago.

 

With respect, this is extremely inaccurate — even Avatar with its very favorable 2009/10 exchange rates is not even anywhere close (nor will it get anywhere close) to suffering a $1b ER loss with current exchange rates, let alone a movie from 3 years ago.

 

This is easily provable. The yuan hasn't depreciated against the dollar by any significant amount since mid-2019, so Avatar 2's gross in China with 2019 exchange rates will be roughly equivalent to its actual gross; this means that pretty much all of the exchange rate loss will have to come from outside of China.

 

So putting China aside, how much would currencies need to depreciate against the dollar for a $1b exchange rate loss for Avatar 2 from 2019 rates? Well, if you were expecting Avatar 2 to make $2b overseas outside of China with 2019 exchange rates, then a $1b exchange rate loss would give you $1b with December 2022 exchange rates, a 50% loss in dollar value. For that to happen, every currency in the world would need to depreciate in value by 50% against the dollar from 2019 rates. The pound, trading at around $1.25 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.62 (currently $1.12); the euro, trading at around $1.12 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.56 (currently $0.98), and the same for every other currency in the world. Exchange rates are likely to get worse than they currently are in the next few months, but this is clearly absurd and impossible.

 

And it gets even more extreme if you're predicting a lower OS-C gross for Avatar 2. If you were expecting a $1.5b overseas-minus-China gross for Avatar 2 with 2019 exchange rates, then a $1b ER loss would mean $500m OS-C with December 2022 exchange rates. That's a 66% loss, which again would mean that every currency in the world would need to depreciate by 66% against the dollar from 2019 values — the pound, trading at around $1.25 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.42; the euro, trading at around $1.12 in mid-2019, would need to drop to $0.37. Even more absurd than the above, and not an inch more possible.

 

Haven't done any formal calculations on this, but the exchange rate loss from 3 years ago for Avatar 2 is likely to be a couple of hundred million dollars, probably up to $300m at the very most if — as is likely — exchange rates get quite a bit worse by December. A $1b ER loss from 2019 ERs isn't even remotely plausible unless Avatar 2 makes something like $4b OS-C this December.

Edited October 2, 2022 by hw64

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

A $1b ER loss from 2019 is simply impossible, unless Avatar 2 makes something like $3-$4b overseas-minus-China.

 

[Issac Newton]

In IMAX, the rerelease cume is $10.7M worldwide, taking the lifetime of the sci-fi epic to $268.6M in the format. 

 

As a sign of things to come, 3D accounted for 81% of ticket sales in Asia, 76% in Europe and 70% in Latin America.

[KP1025]

Domestic Box Office	$779,100,388
International Box Office	$2,126,524,573
Worldwide Box Office	$2,905,624,961

 

 

Lifetime cume crossed $2.9 billion WW this weekend too. 

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar back to highest grossing film of all time in Portugal with re-release,beating the Lion King record,and it’s also the first film ever to cross 7m euro mark 

In Uk Avatar beating Spectre back to top 5 scope

In SKR Avatar beating Frozen 2 become 2nd highest grossing HlW film there,behind only AEG

Edited October 8, 2022 by Bruce

[Issac Newton]

The re-issue of Avatar grossed an estimated $3.9M internationally this weekend. Estimated international re-issue total stands at $48.6M, estimated global re-issue total gross stands at $71.9M.#Avatar #BoxOffice @20thcentury @officialavatar

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) October 9, 2022

[Purple Minion]

 

[GOGODanca]

How many INT markets did it stop playing in before this weekend?

[JustLurking]

27 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

How many INT markets did it stop playing in before this weekend?

A bunch, even some very good ones. It had seriously great drops in SK but just stopped playing for example.

Edited October 9, 2022 by JustLurking

[MG10]

Following Avatar's re-release (which grossed 3 million euros) I'm reposting the estimated highest grossing movies of all time in Italy, in case anyone is interested

 

TOP 15 MOVIES BY ESTIMATED GROSS IN ITALY

 

1) €71M - Titanic (1998)
2) €68.6M - Avatar (2010)
3) €65.4M - Quo Vado? (ITA 2016)
4) €52M - Sole a Catinelle (ITA 2013)
5) €47.8M - Life is Beautiful (ITA 1997)
6) €46.2M - Tolo tolo (ITA 2020)
7) €43.5M - Che Bella Giornata (ITA 2011)
8)€40.1M - Il Ciclone (ITA 1996)
9) €38.3M - Fuochi d’Artificio (ITA 1997)
10) €37.9M - Chiedimi se Sono Felice (ITA 2000)

11) €37.5M - The Lion King (2019)

12) €34.6M - Natale sul Nilo (ITA 2002)

13) €33.5M - Pinocchio (ITA 2002)

14) €32.9M - The Lion King (1994)

15) €32.3M - Così è la Vita (ITA 1998)

Edited October 10, 2022 by MG10

[peludo]

In the same way, these are the figures of Avatar in Spain adding current re-release:

 

Original run (2009): €74,666,325 (9,266,525 admissions)

Special edition (2010): €2,503,362 (290,888)

2022 re-release (2022): €988,927 (132,384) (data from Sep 30th until Oct 2nd. By Wed-Thu we will have official data from this last weekend)

TOTAL: €78,158,614 (9,689,797)

[Sophia Jane]

the finally trailer came out

Edited November 2, 2022 by Bruce

[simoimo19]

https://twitter.com/bulletproofsqui/status/1588121334823124993?t=rOthGNhYuhZAg95BtnklOA&s=19

[LPLC]

I just realized that during the first days (first weekend) of avatar 2 there will be the semi-finals and the world cup final. It's a shame and therefore I think there will be a negative impact on the OW.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/10/2022 at 6:02 AM, peludo said:

In the same way, these are the figures of Avatar in Spain adding current re-release:

 

Original run (2009): €74,666,325 (9,266,525 admissions)

Special edition (2010): €2,503,362 (290,888)

2022 re-release (2022): €988,927 (132,384) (data from Sep 30th until Oct 2nd. By Wed-Thu we will have official data from this last weekend)

TOTAL: €78,158,614 (9,689,797)

Can Ways of Water do at least half that number .  @MG10 same question about Italy. 40m+ Euros possible?

Edited November 11, 2022 by keysersoze123

[peludo]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can Ways of Water do at least half that number .  @MG10 same question about Italy. 40m+ Euros possible?

Possible? Sure, it is even probable. Locked? No. The recent re-release figures make me be optimistic, but I prefer to be cautious taking into account the enormous figures of the first part. This is not a normal sequel. I would say 45-55 million euros with 5-6 million admissions is a reasonable scenario, but far from being locked.

 

And we all know that those euros do not mean the same dollar size since today dollar is way stronger than in 2009-2010. €55m euros, -30% relative to first part, would mean $55m, what it is exactly half of Avatar's figure ($110m).

 

Said this, it is probably the most difficult film to predict I have ever seen. Anything can happen.