Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

I believe Last Duel was in the top 10 on apple for like 3 months and when it hit streaming/VOD it was constantly in my mentions.  
 

20-25 years ago The Last Duel would’ve been 100m domestic hit.  The audience for these types of films still exist, they just don’t go to the movies anymore.  I guarantee Ridley Scott’s Napoleon is going to bomb In theaters even if it gets good reviews.  Even The Northman didn’t do all that well.  It sucks, but it is what it is.

 

I agree that TLD was constantly in my mentions, but my mentions were filled with fellow Film People. I assume yours probably are too. And again, do u have proof that TLD was in the Top 10 rentals for 3 months? Bc I just don't see that

 

Napoleon is gonna bomb bc it's being distributed by Apple, who to this point has been giving their movies shitty 200 theaters and Apple TV+ day and date releases. Their trailers aren't gonna be playing in front of other movies that people will go see in theaters. People will just assume it's a streaming movie, which is the reason I have a hard time seeing Apple movies actually making a mark in theaters, maybe with the exception of Killers of the Flower Moon since that has Leo and is co-distributed by Paramount

 

If Napoleon had a proper studio, I think it could stand a chance. With Apple, it's unclear what kinda release its gonna get

Edited October 31, 2022 by Pinacolada

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

Netflix's Top 10 archive says it was watched 27.2 million hours worldwide. That would translate to about...12.95 million views globally.

 

Using Nielsen's domestic numbers of 470 million minutes viewed on its opening weekend, that gives us 3.73 million views. Ticket prices of like $12.50, or whatever the ATP of 2021 was, would be about...46M. So...yeah, I guess Clay really is onto something, because that's probably what it would have made if given a 2018 theatrical release.

I appreciate you doing the math and breaking down the numbers like that. But again, how many of those viewers/hours watched the full thing? And that $46m is Worldwide right? Not exactly something that equates to lighting the box office on fire. Granted, The Power of the Dog would NEVER have made anywhere near that much in 2021 if it were released by Universal or Focus Features, but still. That's not really showing that the amount of people that watched it on streaming would have turned it into any sort of hit if they watched it in theaters, given its $35m budget

 

Which again, to reiterate, I wanna reinforce my point that people just aren't that interested in movies anymore, which I lament. It makes me sad, but I think that shows it's the truth. Power of the dog definitely isn't for everyone, and I don't care for it too much, but what I mean is that people aren't curious at all to seek these kinds of films out, whether they're in theaters or even on streaming

Edited October 31, 2022 by Pinacolada

[Eric the Minion]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

But again, how many of those viewers/hours watched the full thing? And that $46m is Worldwide right? Not exactly something that equates to lighting the box office on fire. Granted, The Power of the Dog would NEVER have made anywhere near that much in 2021 if it were released by Universal or Focus Features, but still. That's not really showing that the amount of people that watched it on streaming would have turned it into any sort of hit if they watched it in theaters, given its $35m budget

 

Which again, to reiterate, I wanna reinforce my point that people just aren't that interested in movies anymore, which I lament. It makes me sad, but I think that shows it's the truth. Power of the dog definitely isn't for everyone, and I don't care for it too much, but what I mean is that people aren't curious at all to seek these kinds of films out

No, the 46M box office represents US viewership. And sure, not every single person watched the whole thing. But I would think most would stick with it and watch until the end, so this is all a very rough estimate.

[Joyous Legion]

I don't think anywhere near that many people would have paid $10 for it though, versus watching it for free on the couch.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

20-25 years ago The Last Duel would’ve been 100m domestic hit.  The audience for these types of films still exist, they just don’t go to the movies anymore.  I guarantee Ridley Scott’s Napoleon is going to bomb In theaters even if it gets good reviews.  Even The Northman didn’t do all that well.  It sucks, but it is what it is.

A medieval-era he said/she said movie with multiple perspectives of a rape accusation making $100 million?

 

Maybe in the nineties, but with a nineties script: they focus mostly on the men (Daniel Day-Lewis vs I don’t know, Tom Cruise? But Tom insists on good hair and refuses to play a pathetic oaf) and their big macho fight at the end. The movie would play up the ambiguity and leave the audience more conflicted about what really transpired. The "he said" version with DDL and Sophie Marceau would have been a steamy consensual love scene with nudity. The "she said" side is more about how the accusation makes Tom feel, him saving face, and the script doesn't care about making her sympathetic. It may be an old story but the final script was very post #MeToo, a product of its time.

 

But The Last Duel, as it is? Maybe it does slightly better in 2019 ($30-40m domestic) but the subject matter was still already no-go for a lot of women by then, so IMO it's still a money loser theatrically. When was the last medieval-era hit movie without a fantasy element? It's like people now only go for the Middle Ages if there are dragons/elves/magic thrown in.

 

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Krissykins]

All the horror films underestimated for the weekend. 
 

 

[OncomingStorm93]

3 hours ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

When I first heard the title, I assumed it was a Kung Fu Panda rip-off about a cartoon dog that knows karate or something. Not what I got!

That's alright. When I walked into "Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank", I thought I was about to watch a serious progressive western drama.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

 

But The Last Duel, as it is? Maybe it does slightly better in 2019 ($30-40m domestic) but the subject matter was still already no-go for a lot of women by then, so IMO it's still a money loser theatrically. When was the last medieval-era hit movie without a fantasy element? It's like people now only go for the Middle Ages if there are dragons/elves/magic thrown in.

 

 

I've said it before, I'll say it again. We need Christopher Nolan to make a Medieval/Historical epic. His Gladiator, Troy, Kingdom of Heaven, Outlaw King, Northman, whatever. He could give the genre a MAJOR boost, plus he'd have a ball filming that shit in IMAX. As a fan of his, I haven't come across any interviews of him admiring that genre or period of history tho unfortunately 

[GOGODanca]

Not sure even Nolan could make a big budget medieval movie financially viable in today's world

[DTP]

Nice jump in actuals for the horror movies 

[excel1]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I unanimously hear from my friends, almost all of whom are liberal but not to the degree I am, that movies are too political these days. That is a real, pervasive thought that is affecting box office, I gotta agree with that guy. Now, I think it's a dumb, ahistorical way of viewing art (of course movies have been political forever, even moreso than now) - but just because I think it's stupid doesn't mean I should ignore it as reality.

 

zero doubt about it. and people hating on zaslav  because he knows this is reality and is acting accordingly.

[TwoMisfits]

22 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

All this talk about general audiences moving away from dark and gritty storytelling makes me very curious about Wakanda Forever's performance in a couple of weeks. That one looks to be pretty downer by Marvel standards because of Chadwick's absence. I'm sure the fans are happy to see a serious story after the franchise's recent barrage of goofy humour, but I'm a little worried about the average Joe/Jane/whoever finding it too depressing to stomach with all the turmoil in modern society as of late.

 

Wow, I missed the day to celebrate and come on board to see pages of my "will GA folks want to see a downer supers movie" post from last week come to life on these pages...my timing sucks!  But trick or treaters were awesome and being in the community celebrating was a lift, so I guess I'll finish the last 2 pages of the thread and find out we got told to move on:)...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

If you have even a slight, true interest in anything (not just art like film, literature, etc), it's only natural you'd be curious about what the form has to offer. It's that simple. It's why any movie can pop and breakout. 

[Borobudur]

I don't mind watching a serious drama in a cinema but not with this crazy movie ticket price. I signed up a monthly subscription plan that have my every ticket (up to 10 tickets per month) I purchase to be priced 50% lower and 20% lower for concession. That actually encourage me to see TTP or Dogs, some movies I typically won't choose to see in cinema.  

 

The smaller movies just got expanded too fast, they should wait 1-2 weeks to generate enough of awareness or word-of-mouth. You need awareness more than ever in this fast-moving dynamic content driven world.   

 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I don't mind watching a serious drama in a cinema but not with this crazy movie ticket price. I signed up a monthly subscription plan that have my every ticket (up to 10 tickets per month) I purchase to be priced 50% lower and 20% lower for concession. That actually encourage me to see TTP or Dogs, some movies I typically won't choose to see in cinema.  

 

The smaller movies just got expanded too fast, they should wait 1-2 weeks to generate enough of awareness or word-of-mouth. You need awareness more than ever in this fast-moving dynamic content driven world.   

 

 

That's why our fam skipped Lyle Lyle - not gonna pay that much, when my subscription gives me one movie/month for cheaper, not two...and Black Adam was the choice.

[JWR]

I loved The Last Duel but its failure was not a huge surprise given its competition. Even if this was released in the 1990s or early 2000s, the source material would have turned off a lot of people. 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 10/30/2022 at 9:20 PM, WrathOfHan said:

That Strange World and Devotion tracking is bleak. Kind of crazy that The Menu is tracking higher than the latter. I want to know what Bones and All is tracking for (when you can share, of course @Shawn  )

That entire week is such a wild zone right now that things could shift, but it's nice to see studios actually promoting most of the releases already.

[Ezen Baklattan]

This has gotta be the first time ever that a film in its third week is gonna win Thanksgiving weekend, right?

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

This has gotta be the first time ever that a film in its third week is gonna win Thanksgiving weekend, right?

The Santa Clause rose to #1 in its third weekend back in '94. Edit: also blanked on Chamber of Secrets returning to the top spot (as @Jake Gittes mentioned)

 

But as for Black Panther winning Thanksgiving, it would be shocking if it doesn't tbh. More likely than not, it will make more than the other six major November releases (The Menu, She Said, Bones and All, Devotion, The Fabelmans, Strange World) will in totals combined.

Edited November 1, 2022 by filmlover

[Joel M]

19 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

But The Last Duel, as it is? Maybe it does slightly better in 2019 ($30-40m domestic) but the subject matter was still already no-go for a lot of women by then, so IMO it's still a money loser theatrically. When was the last medieval-era hit movie without a fantasy element? It's like people now only go for the Middle Ages if there are dragons/elves/magic thrown in.

 

It's not just now, medieval epics were never really in vogue. Most of huge historical epics were either ancient sword-and-sandal movies or set in more contemporary historical times. Only medieval set movies I can think of in the last 50 years that were hits are Braveheart, Excalibur and Monty Python.