CaptNathanBrittles Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 BP had $411m in the tank before it dropped to $8m daily which represents 58.7% of its overall gross. If this trend continues BP2 will stall at $363m. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Furiosa Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I know it's the board's MO to go "OMG ITS A BOMB" every time we stub our toes, but you guys know there's more than just the second weekend. You should know by now that second weekends have been trash this year and that it's made up for by late legs in future weeks. Do we have to do these meltdowns? Do we really, truly, absolutely need to do this kind of stuff? The answer is no btw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Flopkanda Forever, it will be ok Edited November 17, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said: I know it's the board's MO to go "OMG ITS A BOMB" every time we stub our toes, but you guys know there's more than just the second weekend. You should know by now that second weekends have been trash this year and that it's made up for by late legs in future weeks. Do we have to do these meltdowns? Do we really, truly, absolutely need to do this kind of stuff? The answer is no btw. Literally who is saying it's a bomb? Where are the meltdowns? People can have opinions on the box office and trajectories and such. We don't have to act like there's a hivemind here. Everyone is being pretty measured in their analysis, even if it differs from someone else's views. A dissenting view is not a meltdown. Edited November 17, 2022 by Verrows 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said: BP had $411m in the tank before it dropped to $8m daily which represents 58.7% of its overall gross. If this trend continues BP2 will stall at $363m. I actually think at this rate there's a solid chance the film may start losing gross and end its run at about 10 dollars. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Verrows said: Literally who is saying it's a bomb? Where are the meltdowns? People can have opinions on the box office and trajectories and such. We don't have to act like there's a hivemind here. Everyone is being pretty measured in their analysis, even if it differs from someone else's views. A dissenting view is not a meltdown. Yeah that's what I am saying. Looks around, can't see any meltdowns. To say that there are any meltdowns is kinda gaslighting, eh? Edited November 17, 2022 by jedijake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 If my math is correct then a $500m finish would mean around 40% decrease in admissions from the first movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, jedijake said: Yeah that's what I am saying. Looks around, can't see any meltdowns. To say that there are any meltdowns is kinda gaslighting, eh? I kinda get it. None of us want any sort of negativity surrounding this hobby that means so much to us all. I'm just trying to analyze objectively as best I can and in no way think WF is a bomb or is even disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlyDeadlinePredictions Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Movie Title Distributor Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days In Release 1 (1) Black Panther: Wakanda Fo… Walt Disney $8,110,601 -36% 4,396 $1,845 $213,212,568 6 2 (2) Ticket to Paradise Universal $476,415 -32% -39% 3,633 $131 $57,929,405 27 3 (3) Black Adam Warner Bros. $439,088 -28% -59% 3,603 $122 $152,071,705 27 4 (4) The Banshees of Inisherin Searchlight … $185,586 -18% -19% 960 $193 $6,315,646 27 5 (5) Smile Paramount Pi… $158,933 -11% -47% 2,271 $70 $103,299,718 48 6 (6) Prey for the Devil Lionsgate $137,013 -16% -51% 2,164 $63 $17,329,821 20 7 (7) Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile Sony Pictures $105,758 -15% -33% 2,486 $43 $41,171,197 41 - (-) Till United Artists $75,423 -22% -61% 1,358 $56 $8,268,045 34 - (-) TÁR Focus Features $49,540 +1% -48% 359 $138 $4,703,018 41 - (-) Armageddon Time Focus Features $45,185 -30% -44% 981 $46 $1,750,005 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, GOGODanca said: If my math is correct then a $500m finish would mean around 40% decrease in admissions from the first movie Yup! @VerrowsNobody is saying that BP2 is a bomb or even a failure. However, the potential for it to be a bit of a disappointment is not off the table. My personal standard was to see it at least somewhere between the drop of AOU(26.3% from Avengers) and TLJ (33.8% drop from TFA) with it being closer to AOU. That would put it between $463 million and $515 million. Anything over $515 million would be really good. Anything under $463 million, quite honestly, would be a little disappointing. As it turned out, BP2's OW was right smack in the middle of the OW drops for AOU and TLJ. So, the box office run between those two would also make sense. As for the "trajectory", three MCU movies that fall with bigger-than-expected second weekend drops shows a pattern. What that means we won't know. BUT, if we were to switch Avatar2 and BP2's release dates, we would probably be switching their numbers as well. All that said, under $70 million second weekend is disappointing. Under $65 million.....you can't spin that into anything it isn't. Edited November 17, 2022 by jedijake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Verrows said: Yeah there's no way the weekend clears $70M. Going off a $7.6M Thursday, which seems very reasonable at this point.... Friday $17.5M (+130%) Saturday $27.1M (+55%) Sunday $19M (-30%) Weekend $63.6M (-64.9%) And those are fairly generous Fri/Sat bumps and Sun drop. When all is said and done this will drop very close to Doctor Strange MoM despite the better word of mouth. I know the November weekdays thing but the weekdays were SO soft for BP WF that it won't even be able to translate to a "stronger" weekend. Again, the drop will end up being similar to MoM at the end of the day so what was the point of the soft weekdays caveat? EDIT: I'm recalling what @narniadissaid a few pages back about the strong weekends being relative to the preceding weekdays. That makes sense, rather than looking at it from a drop % standpoint. it still seems too bad though. I figured WF was ripe for a far better 2nd weekend drop than the more divisive MoM and L&T. The good news is the Thanksgiving 3rd weekend will be what really separates this and makes it a bigger box office hit than the similarly high opening Doctor Strange MoM. Wouldn´t the Sat jump be more closer to Ragnarok and Doctor Strange then Eternals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Pretty shitty Wednesday if you ask me but the movie will have a lot of time to make up for the incoming 65% 2nd drop starting at Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, thajdikt said: Wouldn´t the Sat jump be more closer to Ragnarok and Doctor Strange then Eternals? Maybe, I wanted to be generous but not too generous because that's kind of the point of this debate: setting up expectations and then being disappointed when it doesn't go like that. 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Verrows said: Maybe, I wanted to be generous but not too generous because that's kind of the point of this debate: setting up expectations and then being disappointed when it doesn't go like that. 🤣 Well that´s pretty sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Box office report predicting 70M second weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopped Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 They really ate into this movie's box office with the pvod release https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/where-to-watch-ticket-to-paradise-vod-crawdads-netflix-1234782009/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 @charlie Jatinder Any Thursday estimate number for WF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddyxx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 16 hours ago, narniadis said: Yup.... wife and I just finished Ms Marvel last week and only cause we had run out of other things we had been watching. There is just too much and none of it, especially this year, has been "great." We are making a point to go on a date night tomorrow and see BP but we haven't seen one in theaters since Shang-Chi 🤷♂️ and I don't really care. How are you fatigued from stuff you didn’t watch? Is it the constant marketing of marvel projects? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, stripe said: @charlie Jatinder Any Thursday estimate number for WF? 7.6 pretty much boring weekdays. no great hold, no big drop. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 7.6 pretty much boring weekdays. no great hold, no big drop. $70M weekend is still on table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
