A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

How will Puss and Boots effect this?

 

Oh, lots of dead weight either cut entirely or down to one/two showings early in the morning/late at night.  Especially since Babylon and I Just Wanna Dance With Somebody will also be debuting.

 

Won't be quite as bad at multiplexes with 16+ screens.  But anything 14 and under (like the one I cited), is gonna run into issues.

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

But is that actually a good strategy for overall gross, though?

 

Most theaters are restricted to one PLF screen. Some may have more, but not a lot more*.

* I do have a local that advertises four "Giant Screens", but how PLF-ish they actually are is up to debate - and either way the theater in question isn't nearly as popular as it was five or six years ago.

 

They're more expensive tickets.  Disney or Cameron is making it so that most of the big boys are having 3D PLF which adds even more to the cost (last I heard, it was around 75% of all PLF showings were 3D).  3D is still stigmatized in the States.

 

So you're artificially limiting supply (by focusing on PLF screens) and demand (implying that it isn't "as good" if it's not seen in 3D PLF).

 

I mean, if you can convince people to do it, it's great.  But back in 2009 all you had to do is convince people to see it on a 3D screen, as PLF wasn't nearly the thing it is now.  By sending a message of PLF IS SUPERIOR, just seems... I dunno.  It's kinda like marketing to cinephiles while not focusing on the hoi poloi.

 

Like, it kinda reminds me about commercials and advertising that is directed toward audiophiles (and their "golden ears").  Everything that is said about the audio quality might be true... But is it actually true enough to get the punters to buy it?

 

I don't know!  I do think that PLF demand is gonna be pretty strong past the OW, and that's gonna help with the overall gross.  But what about all of the other seats?  How much of the potential audience will just decide to wait if they decide that PLF isn't worth it to them?   That's the real question I have about A2's run past the OW.

I have no idea tbh, and this time around i think it's not exactly the marketing fault. 

 

I remember for Avatar 1 everyone was saying "oh but you have to see in 3D" in every interview, this time i found the team and even Cameron more toned down in their comments about it. 

 

I think it's mainly the audience that knowing how this is all about the experience just decided PFL is the better option to go. We've seen this happening for other tentpoles, but this time the scale is way bigger. 

 

But i believe is dangerous as well, maybe for this movie it will pay off because it will have those PFL's until February. For the sequels, maybe they won't get so lucky.

[Porthos]

             *******PAGE FIFTY, EVERYONE******

Edited December 16, 2022 by Porthos

[stephanos13]

57 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

That said, if Avatar 2 comes in under its $150M expectations, it’s because audiences are waiting to secure ideal seats in a premium format — and the best time might be after this weekend. I’m hearing in markets like NYC and LA, it’s difficult to get an Imax, Dolby or PLF ticket for this weekend. While there’s plenty of 3D showtimes for Avatar 2, the U.S. marketplace is underscreened when it comes to Imax, Dolby and key PLFs, particularly in regards to the demand here. Per recent MPAA stats, only 35% of the 43,6K screens stateside are digital 3D. 

 

The other 65% of 3D screens what quality do they have/use?

Edited December 16, 2022 by stephanos13

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I have no idea tbh, and this time around i think it's not exactly the marketing fault. 

 

I think I slightly disagree.  It was @Cap who first mentioned this to me, but most of the marketing seemed to prioritize the visuals and spectacle and just "return to the world of Pandora" and not so much the meat and potatoes of the story. Or, hell, even character beats.

 

I must admit I didn't pay too much attention to TV advertising, but from what I saw they certainly leaned into that.  I know that I criticized the "mystery box marketing" (and, yes, I think it fits when Cameron when out of his way to say things like [paraphrasing] "you'll never guess the surprises" and "folks don't know what's coming" and so on) as being not really appropriate for A2.

 

Like, most of the positives of what I heard has been the killer third act and the fast paced action.  Why not lean more on that on the run up?

 

And while Disney certainly turned on the marketing spigot in early/mid November, I also agree with Cap that they didn't do enough to build up hype during the summer.

 

So I don't think Disney consciously said "see it in 3D PLF" per se in their marketing, their actual roll out to theaters spoke volumes.  And that was reinforced by what the commercials and whatnot actually were.

 

Mind, I'm only slightly  disagreeing with you here, but maybe stepping back and taking more of a 30,000 foot level look at the situation as it were.

 

(or it's "just vibes, man - can't describe it better than that", take your pick)

Edited December 16, 2022 by Porthos

[Ozymandias]

[wildphantom]

People want to see this thing in PLF. 

 

Exhibition isn’t set up to cater for that kind of demand upfront, but with this movie they do have it on those screens for the foreseeable.  I mean, who wants to see this in a small screen with dim projection and dark 3D?  
 

They need more of these PLF screens. Simple as that.  It’s been the one area of exhibition that has consistently grown in ticket sales and footfall.  

 

[RichWS]

Maybe it's because I never bought the 175-200 projections (which set expectations so high there was only one way to go) but I think 140 would be fine. So many people who won't see this till the second holiday week.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Maybe it's because I never bought the 175-200 projections (which set expectations so high there was only one way to go) but I think 140 would be fine. So many people who won't see this till the second holiday week.

 

This is something I've been meaning to mention today.

 

Historically we like to look at second (and third) weekend drops for legs.  Owing to calendar placement of Xmas Eve, it's probably going to be much better to look at the weekly drop for both the second and third week.

 

Probably a nearly self-evident point, but still one I wanted to make.  

[Vector Sigma]

I was one of the clowns that had this originally opening at 180. I went down to 160 and now it's looking like 130-140. The legs should be great but I can't imagine this thing going past 500 million domestic. China and Japan, the second and third biggest movie markets are underperforming. I don't know where the money is gonna come from. This is probably a 1.5 billion dollar film, which is incredible, but not what I was expecting. 

[stephanos13]

7 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

I was one of the clowns that had this originally opening at 180. I went down to 160 and now it's looking like 130-140. The legs should be great but I can't imagine this thing going past 500 million domestic. China and Japan, the second and third biggest movie markets are underperforming. I don't know where the money is gonna come from. This is probably a 1.5 billion dollar film, which is incredible, but not what I was expecting. 

 

With a multiplier of 4x legs it gives around 560M. It will do way more if it has great legs as you say yourself in the post.

[BluKyberCrystal]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is something I've been meaning to mention today.

 

Historically we like to look at second (and third) weekend drops for legs.  Owing to calendar placement of Xmas Eve, it's probably going to be much better to look at the weekly drop for both the second and third week.

 

Probably a nearly self-evident point, but still one I wanted to make.  

Very helpful to a newbie like me.

[thajdikt]

8 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

I was one of the clowns that had this originally opening at 180. I went down to 160 and now it's looking like 130-140. The legs should be great but I can't imagine this thing going past 500 million domestic. China and Japan, the second and third biggest movie markets are underperforming. I don't know where the money is gonna come from. This is probably a 1.5 billion dollar film, which is incredible, but not what I was expecting. 

Disagree imo  It has whole Christmas season to dominate the screens. Nothing new in January either. 500M will happen easily. WOM is strong. 4x should be doable as a worst case scenario. 

[John Marston]

Avatar 2 looks to do great with 500m domestic or so but TGM will remain number 1 domestically and may even beat it worldwide

 

[thajdikt]

Also the movie is doing great in many markets. China and Japan are not good but many markets is doing well. Norway, India, Brazil etc. I still think this beats NWH easily. 

[Krissykins]

Went to see Avatar 2 in IMAX 3D with laser tonight and it looked insane. Makes some of the CGI we’ve seen this year look an absolute shambles in comparison lol. 

[Jim Shorts]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Kal?

Thanks!

 

How could I forget supes.

[Verrows]

T-30 minutes for our showing!

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

.  It was @Cap -snip-

I know I’m going to get shit for this, but eh, LFG.

 

We are a box office forum. We talk about Avatar excessively because it’s the biggest box office film of all time.  Most of the other places on The Internet TM do not. For the General Audience, this is a sequel to that cool movie from 12 years ago. To Nerd Culture, it’s the sequel to the movie they love to mock and meme. And James Cameron did most of his best work in the 1980’s, which is like asking Gen Z to marathon TCM. There isn’t a massive sleeping giant fandom out there ready to show up. 
 

Know why the MCU is so popular? Despite the “bad VFXs” and “stupid quips” and “bad action” and “bad scripts” and “amusement park vibes?” Because people **love** those characters. I would murder for Steve Rogers. 

 

Just look at Dr. Strange. They made Wanda the villain, and her Stans still showed up because it was Wanda! (And to take notes for their meta about how Marvel Is Evil and Hates Wanda). 

 

Which means, you HAVE to reintroduce the characters. Who are the blue people? Which one is Zoe Saldana? What was the plot to the first one?  Where were the BTS featurettes playing before EVERY movie during those commercials/info news stuff they run? Where was the “Welcome Back to Pandora” ABC special? 
 

Moreover, you need to sell me on the 3D. IronJimbo sent me a video when Cameron was talking about the steps they took to mitigate headaches and make the experience better. Why was that not IN THE ADS?!?

 

It wasn’t until last night I saw an ad that looked bad ass. Clear plot (the humans have returned and we need to go to our allies for help) and LOTS of action. I was like “Wow; that looks great. Maybe I should go—“

 

Why are we seeing that only on Thursday of Previews? Why was that not the second trailer? 

 

There is zero reason to have them mystery box Avatar. It’s it’s backfiring them. 

 

THAT SAID!!!

 

The ads have also been emphasizing seen it in a 3D PLF format. As Porthos said, there are not enough screens for everyone to do that opening weekend. There is still a lot of time for folks to go in December and January!! So it’s not like “oh no, it’s over, let’s play Nearer, My God, To Thee.”  It’s just a reason why this might open to lower than expected numbers. 
 

And when all else fails, blame the nor’easter and World Cup!