New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

Hollywood is going to do whatever makes it money. So, for better or worse, take that as you  will. 

[M37]

Posted this last Friday:

 

Quote

The 8-day holiday period is going to be the key to determining the final range. Here are grosses for Xmas Day Through New Years Day for recent December big openings, grosses after 1/01, and then the ratio of those two (ratio is imprecise due to varying calendar configuration, more of a guide)

 

TFA = $295.5 / $250.3 (0.85x)

RO = $164.8 / $107.2 (0.65x)

TLJ = $163.3 / $88.7 (0.54x)

Aquaman = $132.0 / $119.6 (0.91x)

ROS = $180.7 / $107.4 (0.59x)

NWH = $190.6 / $208.7 (1.10x)

 

With estimates, we're looking at a ~$193M gross over the 8-day holiday period, the second highest total ever, and ~$424.5M total. Based on the uptick since Wednesday, the TFA/Aquaman ratio probably represents the lower range value, and while IMO the NWH trajectory is a bit skewed due to COVID factors, it probably serves well as a higher end projection moving forward. And if you want to get really optimistic, then Jumanji TNL had a 1.32x by this same process. Going above that is probably a stretch at this point, but depending on how the upcoming week/weekend goes it may prove not to be

 

PS - can we take a moment to remember the most amazing box office run of the last 13 years, which is on par with Avatar legs, albeit at a lower value (and even slightly ahead by some measures)

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

Ignore Twitter. Stop giving big money to movies the GA won’t show up too, keep giving big money to movies the GA will show up to.

[Alex SciChannel]

Puss in Boots?

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I have been reading reactions to tweets from some of the trades about the box office prospects of the (big) movies this year, and some people keep on saying that we shouldn't be patronizing this "crap" that Hollywood offers every year. But when that very Hollywood offers critically aclaimed and potentially award-winning movies, the people don't want them either. They don't watch these movies. So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

They'll just continue making stuff until they find something that sticks. Lack of originality is hardly a real complaint anymore (even Broadway is suffering from creative bankruptcy these days between all the revivals and plays based on movies - like the recent failed Almost Famous musical that's closing after a few months - in recent years) because the ideas have mostly run out after 100+ years of existing.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I have been reading reactions to tweets from some of the trades about the box office prospects of the (big) movies this year, and some people keep on saying that we shouldn't be patronizing this "crap" that Hollywood offers every year. But when that very Hollywood offers critically aclaimed and potentially award-winning movies, the people don't want them either. They don't watch these movies. So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

Accept that they have lost a lot of casual audience, and so understand that they have make content that has both an entertainment (spectacle) and quality value to it 

 

Can’t just roll out generic horror or action flicks, or a prestige drama, or a big brand but weaker story and expect people to show up; they’ve spoken with their wallets. Every film that had longevity this past year did so with some level of high WOM (relative to genre). The audience is more discerning, so the bar on what is produced has to be raised 

[shachi86]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

And if you want to get really optimistic, then Jumanji TNL had a 1.32x by this same process. Going above that is probably a stretch at this point, but depending on how the upcoming week/weekend goes it may prove not to be

 

 

 

Jumanji TNL opened almost 2 weeks before Christmas though, so had burnt off a bit of demand by that point. I think movies opening between December 16th - December 22nd would be a good comparison. Otherwise, you can make the point that Frozen's multiplier is 1.88x using the same process! (1.88x by the way would put Avatar 2's domestic gross at the same level as Avatar 1 - $785m)

Edited January 2, 2023 by shachi86

[wildphantom]

30 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I have been reading reactions to tweets from some of the trades about the box office prospects of the (big) movies this year, and some people keep on saying that we shouldn't be patronizing this "crap" that Hollywood offers every year. But when that very Hollywood offers critically aclaimed and potentially award-winning movies, the people don't want them either. They don't watch these movies. So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

to be honest I think half of them just troll with a reaction to something as phenomenal as this film’s performance just for a like or a retweet.  Or to gain some followers. 
Most vitriol on threads on social media is to attract attention, no matter how bottom of the barrel it is. Tragic. 

[Sophia Jane]

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER’ is set to make $67.8M in its third weekend at the domestic box office, +7% from last weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah i also think Twitter comments don't really mean anything. 

 

Twitter bubble hates Avatar, is arguably the biggest platform where the whole "no cultural impact" keeps being used and most of those people expect the sequel to proof how nobody cares about it. 

 

Now that it's blowed up in their faces, people are just upset and finding things to complain about Hollywood and the audiences showing up.

[stripe]

40 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Ignore Twitter. Stop giving big money to movies the GA won’t show up too, keep giving big money to movies the GA will show up to.

 

Absolutely!

[stripe]

12 minutes ago, Bruce said:

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER’ is set to make $67.8M in its third weekend at the domestic box office, +7% from last weekend.

 

Source?

Or is it just a guess?

[grey ghost]

47 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I have been reading reactions to tweets from some of the trades about the box office prospects of the (big) movies this year, and some people keep on saying that we shouldn't be patronizing this "crap" that Hollywood offers every year. But when that very Hollywood offers critically aclaimed and potentially award-winning movies, the people don't want them either. They don't watch these movies. So what should Hollywood do? 🙃

 

 

Remind these people they have oscar bait during oscar season and most people don't want dry ass oscar bait.

[Sophia Jane]

Just now, stripe said:

 

Source?

Or is it just a guess?

It’s the report depends on tracking how its doing on Sunday,will really near to the final est

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Bruce said:

It’s the report depends on tracking how its doing on Sunday,will really near to the final est

 

That's the number Deadline ran with yesterday. Actuals will be around $66.3M 

[Sophia Jane]

Think 600m is locked,650m is doable,700m is hard,beating TGM is really hard

[Mr Roark]

It needs roughly $630M domestically to top TFA worldwide given the 30/70 split. 

[Sheldon Cr]

37 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

to be honest I think half of them just troll with a reaction to something as phenomenal as this film’s performance just for a like or a retweet.  Or to gain some followers. 
Most vitriol on threads on social media is to attract attention, no matter how bottom of the barrel it is. Tragic. 

Well put brother phantom

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

It needs roughly $630M domestically to top TFA worldwide given the 30/70 split. 

 

You can probably knock $100M off that number and still pass TFA worldwide. 

[Sheldon Cr]

17 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Think 600m is locked,650m is doable,700m is hard,beating TGM is really hard

Depends on the people. Enough of ticket buyers between Titanic and A1 show, nothing is impossible. That is over 210m tickets on the domestic end who are fans of Cameron.. Its the  800m mark that I want this film to fly over brother Bruce. 

 

 

" Nothings  Over while Avatar 2 is breathing!"