February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[efialtes76]

30 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Disgusting weekend. 200m is dead for Puss in Boots and 100m is dead for M3gan 

200M was a pipe dream...

 

[Cmasterclay]

Con: This weekend sucks for the box office. Pro: Due to the posts in this thread, for once, I am proud to live in South Florida.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Con: This weekend sucks for the box office. Pro: Due to the posts in this thread, for once, I am proud to live in South Florida.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

If I had to guess

 

#1 Knock - $15M

#2 Brady - $14M

#3 Avatar 2 - $10.5M

[Firepower]

Nasty numbers.

[M37]

Numbers has Avatwo at $2.4M (-34% vs last Fri)

 

Only that and Puss (-31%) are sub-40 from last Fri 

[baumer]

There's plenty of room for filmmakers like M Night. It has nothing to do with the content it has more to do with the fact that Goodwill is ephemeral in Hollywood just as much now as it ever was. Night did this to himself. Old was one big hot mess at least in my eyes and it's not like it got stellar WOM. For every one film he makes that seems to be decent, like Split, he makes two garbage films like glass and then old. I think people have just gotten to the point now where they see his name attached to a film and you think it's going to be twisty in a horrible way and not a good way the way it was with sixth sense and unbreakable. Those films are more than 20 years old now and the filmography he's put forth since then has been below average and that's putting it mildly.

 

People love violence. I mean look at the terrifier part 2 that came out in December, It's a niche film of course but the niche audience that loved it forced the studio and theaters to release a theatrically.

 

When you wear out your goodwill people are not going to come out in droved to see your film. I think a 15 million dollar opening is more than adequate especially since M Night has been releasing such garbage lately.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Bit of an odd weekend where both openers seem to be doing perfectly fine all things considered (Knock at the Cabin's opening is decent for a movie with such a grim premise while 80 for Brady is going to beat the low expectations from just a few weeks ago), yet neither truly broke out like it seemed like they potentially would have at some point. Still, better than what we've been seeing for non-tentpoles on average over the past two years. 

 

Looks like holdovers are going to see respectable drops across the board, again.

 

More interesting this weekend is Knock at the Cabin's Friday night GA reaction - the Deadline numbers are actually horrid...I haven't seen a movie win a weekend with those recommend numbers...ever?  It portends a sub 2.0 leg, I would think, unless weather is keeping the weekend low...

 

From Deadline...

 

"Knock at the Cabin gets a C CinemaScore, one notch below M. Night Shyamalan’s Old (C+) and a 56% positive and low 35% recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak"

 

Edit to Add: Here's 80 for Brady's GA reaction, too...much better, although not amazing...

 

"80 for Brady get an A- CinemaScore, 85% positive and 68% recommend on PostTrak."

Edited February 4, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Napoleon]

The projection for Knock at the Cabin is very disappointing considering how well Old did in 2021 for that period when similar movies were opening under $10 million. Something went wrong here. Maybe the marketing or maybe because of the gay couple. I hope it at least becomes one of those movies that get good legs despite the low cinemascore. I understand it will be divisive but it's still a very entertaining film in my opinion.

[upriser7]

all things considered, A2 held pretty well despite losing 20% of PLF shows, 28% of overall shows. I'd expect a 5.3M Saturday, 3.6M Sunday, a weekend total of 11.3M.

Edited February 4, 2023 by upriser7

[GOGODanca]

I'm shocked PIB dropped that much, I thought I was gonna hold 10% drops for atleast another month

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Blankments said:

@Eric Crowe @WrathOfHan THE FIRST TRAILER REPORT OF ONLY 2023 MOVIES:

 

18x:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, The Menu, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Strange World, Bones and All, Violent Night, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Inspection, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, M3GAN, Skinamarink, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, The Whale

 

11x:

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Orphan: First Kill, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3 Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Avatar Round 2 Dolby, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Adam Dolby, Smile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World

 

10x:

 

Oppenheimer: Nope Dolby, The Black Phone, Nope Round 2 IMAX, Bullet Train Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Pale Blue Eye, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Knock at the Cabin: Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Halloween Kills, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, The Fabelmans Round 2, The Night Owl, M3GAN, Skinamarink, The Whale

 

8x:

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: DC League of Super-Pets, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Creed III: Black Adam Dolby, Till, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3Dl, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Women Talking

 

7x:

 

The Little Mermaid: Avatar Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

80 for Brady: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, The Whale, Women Talking

 

6x:

 

M3GAN: Halloween Ends, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Ticket to Paradise, The Night Owl

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Sing 2 Dolby, Belle Round 2, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

 

5x:

 

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, Jurassic World Dominion IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 2, Elvis Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D

Plane: Black Adam Dolby, The Banshees of Inisherin, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Night Owl, M3GAN

Missing: Violent Night, The Night Owl, M3GAN, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

 

4x:

 

The Jesus Revolution: The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto

 

  Reveal hidden contents

3x:

House Party: Black Adam Dolby, Halloween Ends, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0
Elemental: The Fabelmans, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
65: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, A Man Called Otto 

2x:

The Marvels: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Fantastic Four: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Adhira: RRR, RRR Round 2
Infinity Pool: Bones and All, Violent Night
Chevalier: The Menu, The Inspection
John Wick: Chapter 4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D
Emily: The Inspection, Living
Champions: Violent Night, Women Talking
A Good Person: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Women Talking
Of an Age: Skinamarink, Women Talking

1x:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear Dolby
MaXXXine: Pearl
Inside: Armageddon Time
Mafia Mamma: Violent Night
Cocaine Bear: Violent Night
Barbie: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Skinamarink: The Pale Blue Eye
Alcarras: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Book Club: The Next Chapter: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Evil Dead Rise: M3GAN
Scream VI: M3GAN
Renfield: M3GAN
Spinning Gold: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Magic Mike’s Last Dance: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Enys Men: Skinamarink
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Skinamarink
Bunker: Skinamarink
The Tunnel of Summer, The Exit of Goodbyes: Skinamarink
R.M.N.: Skinamarink
2022 Oscar Shorts: No Bears
Godland: No Bears
Showing Up: The Whale
Beau is Afraid: The Whale
Marlowe: Living

 

 

24 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

We need some more trailers in the rotation lol

 

9x:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, The Whale, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, M3GAN)

 

7x:

John Wick: Chapter 4 (Bullet Train, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Whale, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

 

5x:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Avatar IMAX 3D, Black Adam, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Babylon)

Oppenheimer (Nope, Bullet Train, Avatar IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, M3GAN)

 

4x:

Creed III (Black Adam, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

 

3x:

Chevalier (The Menu, The Whale, Infinity Pool)

Infinity Pool (The Whale, Babylon, M3GAN)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Black Adam, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

 

2x:

65 (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Babylon)

Beau Is Afraid (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Cocaine Bear (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Elemental (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Evil Dead Rise (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

The Little Mermaid (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Scream VI (Babylon, M3GAN)

 

1x:

Barbie (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D)

A Good Person (Babylon)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

Renfield (M3GAN)

Titanic 3D (Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

Very sad I didn't get to do this eariler, but better late than never.

 

15x:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Minions: The Rise of Gru, DC League of Super Pets, Don't Worry Darling, See How They Run, Ticket to Paradise, Till, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, The Fabelmans, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

 

8x:

Oppenheimer: Nope, Jaws, Avatar, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto, Living

 

7x:

Knock at the Cabin: Don't Worry Darling, The Fabelmans, Violent Night, M3GAN, Plane, The Whale, A Man Called Otto

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Strange World, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Dog, Uncharted, The Guide, RRR, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

 

6x:

Creed III: Till, Black Adam, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Women Talking

 

5x:

Plane: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Adam, Violent Night, Babylon, M3GAN

Magic Mike's Last Dance: Bones and All, The Menu, Babylon, The Whale, A Man Called Otto

John Wick: Chapter 4: Bullet Train, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Plane, The Whale

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

 

4x:

M3GAN: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Bones and All, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2

Women Talking: Till, Bones and All, Armageddon Time, Corsage

Chevalier: The Menu, The Whale, Women Talking, Living

Book Club: The Next Chapter: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2, Women Talking

 

3x:

The Whale: The Menu, The Fabelmans, Corsage

Living: Till, Corsage, The Whale

A Man Called Otto: The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Corsage

House Party: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Adam, Violent Night

Jesus Revolution: Ticket to Paradise, Plane, Living

 

2x:

The Son: The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time

Cocaine Bear: Violent Night, Babylon

65: Avatar: The Way of Water, A Man Called Otto

Evil Dead Rise: M3GAN, Plane

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Plane

The Little Mermaid: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2

The Flash: Uncharted, The Batman

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1: Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: Uncharted, The Batman

 

Spoiler

Missing: The Menu

Close: The Whale

Fear: Violent Night

Infinity Pool: Violent Night

80 for Brady: Babylon

Marlowe: Plane

Champions: M3GAN

Scream 6: Babylon

A Good Person: Women Talking

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Smile

Renfield: M3GAN

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret: Women Talking

Elemental: Strange World

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Avatar: The Way of Water

Barbie: Avatar: The Way of Water

One Fine Morning: Living

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre: The King's Man

Showing Up: The Whale

The Unbreakable Boy: King Richard

Turn Every Page - The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb: Living

White Bird: A Wonder Story: Thor: Love and Thunder

 

[Jiffy]

-34% Fri-Fri is good for A2 with the Dolby loss / cold weather considering Sunday hold should be better this weekend.

[filmlover]

I had to laugh when I got the trailer for Evil Dead Rise before my sold out showing (made up of mostly old people) of Women Talking last weekend as the outlier among all those previews mostly for movies that would appeal to older folks (even 65's attachment made more sense given the presence of Two-Time Oscar Nominee Adam Driver). What happens when the studios mostly abandon non-tentpoles.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, upriser7 said:

have there been any movies over the last 5 years that have had matinee ticket pricing right from opening weekend onwards like 80 for Brady ?

Playmobil had $5 tickets:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/playmobil-box-office-5-tickets-couldnt-save-pic-disaster-1261121/#!

 

 

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

but everyone and their mother plopped in front of their TVs/computers/phones to watch Dahmer so..

Watching a true crime show at home or listening to a podcast on services already in your budget, that's much easier than going out to a theater and paying for tickets/concessions for a grim movie.

[John Marston]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

Different type of content: by design viewers supposed to hate the protagonist, not empathize with their struggle like some of the “downer” content that has often struggled to gain traction 

 

Fwiw I’m not sure I buy that’s a large part of Cabin’s struggle, but it certainly didn’t help as compared to a more clearly fantasy/escapism of something like M3G or Smile 

 

 

 

Smile is actually a really dark movie with a downer ending

[Blankments]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

We need some more trailers in the rotation lol

...

what were your final counts for m3gan and plane lol

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

what were your final counts for m3gan and plane lol

I never got either trailer lol

 

I got House Party at Black Adam though, forgot that even came out in January.

Edited February 4, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[Eric is Anxious]

I agree that people want sunshiny rainbow escapism, which is...a whole other gross can of worms. But using that to explain why a divisive film from a very divisive filmmaker, whose premise and ad campaign isn't as strong a hook or as easy to sell compared to a beach turning people old was, in a genre that while consistently a downer and sad and bleak is one of the few genres that consistently makes solid money...yeah no, I don't buy that "people don't wike being sad :(((((((" argument here. It'll be even funnier when Scream 6 and The Boogeyman both become hits.