Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Presales shows Ant Man wasn't doomed. It was tracking to a 125M 3 day OW

Didn't @charlie Jatinder say it could've opened $150M if it was received well?

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

I'm not just talking Will Smith's salary. Did no one at WB say "Okay, Will Smith is not in this movie, we'll have to adjust the budget accordingly because we are going to lose a large chunk of the audience without him."

 

I think there was a degree to which Warner Brothers absolutely convinced themselves that

 

1. Margot Robbie as Harley wasn't just a zeitgeist moment that carried literally one movie (that also had the Joker and Will Smith in) but was a new A-lister and was a huge draw in her own right especially in that role.

2. James Gunn was a huge draw in his own right.

3. Taika Waititi post Ragnarok, Jojo Rabbit and Free Guy WAS the moment and a pally cameo from him was a draw no matter how brief it was and how awful he was.

4. It was going to be similar to Deadpool in tone (it wasn't and the marketing was even less so)

5. It would have amazing word of mouth just because Guardians did.

6. The terrible reception to the first one meant that the box office to that film was the floor, and reflective of a SS squad with BAD reception. As opposed to being reflective of the initial concept PLUS Will Smith PLUS Joker PLUS first-impact Halloween-Outfit zeitgeist of Robbie as Harley in that costume, plus effective marketing all despite the crappy movie.

 

Of course, all of those things were wrong.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Pinacolada]

Oh man, we're talking TSS in here. The floppage of it still hurts. But yeah, a big chunk was because of the Day and date release. It did indeed have some of the best Samba ratings out of the other day and dates, certainly bigger than ZSJL and if I remember correctly WW84 as well. Could be wrong there.

 

 

@Ipickthiswhiteroseis a right about a lot of that.

 

I think the big reasons why it flopped are as follows:

1. Day and date. That fucked it and its legs. HOWEVER, at the same time, I think there was something about it and its R rating that was off putting to general audiences. Maybe it was too mean spirited? Too wacky and zany? As opposed to Deadpool. Even in normal times, I think it would have made like $370-$400m. I showed it to my parents and brother and they all seemed to like it, but yeah it really feels like it only stuck with online fans. None of my friends really talk about it anymore, even though I know most of them liked it.

2. No Will Smith

3. No Joker (or a side of Batman)

4. Harley as the lead and first billed was indeed over-estimated. I think people like her in tandem with the Joker. Not by herself.

5. The stink of the first movie. The "brand" of Suicide Squad was completely tarnished by that movie. Not to mention the brand of DC. I think general audiences even kinda enjoyed the first one in theaters. But as time went on, the legacy around it was that it sucked and that's what stuck (it indeed does suck).

6. The marketing also just was kinda muted. The name wasn't great. Was it a sequel to the film we thought sucked? A reboot already? But why does it have some of the same people? The 2016s film's marketing was so exciting, but for TSS it was way more lowkey. And I think the impact of the first film had a major effect in that. People just didn't care as much. This concept was already used for a terrible film

 

So yeah, THE Suicide Squad had pretty much everything going against it except for good reviews. It's a bummer still. I love it tho. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

yeah Flash is being way over predicted. A 300m+ budget, a miscast and uncharismatic lead actor, loads of competition etc. People are trying to create fake hype with Keaton’s Batman and Supergirl but the average person doesn’t care about those things. Now if it were Bale’s Batman and Superman was In it, that would be a different story 

“Average” people don’t care about Keaton’s Batman, but they absolutely adore Bale’s? 
 

 

Do you mean “young” instead of “average”? Or do you mean “Twitter users”?

 

(I also don’t think WB will confirm the rumoured $300m budget either). 

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

“Average” people don’t care about Keaton’s Batman, but they absolutely adore Bale’s? 
 

 

Do you mean “young” instead of “average”? Or do you mean “Twitter users”?

 

(I also don’t think WB will confirm the rumoured $300m budget either). 

 

 

Yes. Bales Batman is who is popular with the majority of todays moviegoers (think the crowd who grew up with Tobey as Spider-Man) . Keaton’s movies have been overshadowed by other versions of Batman and he was barely in his own movies. ( many immediately think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker when they think of Batman 89. Not Keaton) 

Edited March 18, 2023 by John Marston

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think if GotG underperforms, that’s when we know for sure if superhero fatigue is real. AM3 and Shazam were always doomed, barring some miraculous WOM or something. 

Will die of shock if it sniffs 1B WW

[John Marston]

32 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

Why do you always say people don't care about Keaton as Batman? Like...that was huge news. It trended like crazy. The 1989 movie is still considered a classic. Batman Returns has devoted fans. I'm not that crazy for Keaton's Batman like others, but that's a performance and character people really, really, really like.

 

Yes it was popular at the time but now it is a style over substance relic that has been overshadowed by other versions of Batman. Many people mostly think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker and the production  design when they think of Batman 89. Basically it won’t turn Flash into a NWH or Maverick or cause crazy excitement among most moviegoers like many seem to think 

Edited March 18, 2023 by John Marston

[Ronin46]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

Yes. Bales Batman is who is popular with the majority of todays moviegoers. Keaton’s movies have been overshadowed by other versions of Batman and he was barely in his own movies. ( many immediately think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker when they think of Batman 89. Not Keaton) 

 

I wish I had a dollar for everytime you say this. Repeating it over and over and over. I love Keaton in Batman. Its a draw for me that he in The Flash. Others will think the same. Some will not. Think its worth a little boost. 

[Eric the Ape]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Yes. Bales Batman is who is popular with the majority of todays moviegoers (think the crowd who grew up with Tobey as Spider-Man) . Keaton’s movies have been overshadowed by other versions of Batman and he was barely in his own movies. ( many immediately think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker when they think of Batman 89. Not Keaton) 

The villains almost always overshadow the guy playing Batman. That's been the case since the Adam West days. Only real exception is Batman Begins, which is the least-talked about Bale movie. The other two movies? Batman's overshadowed by the villains. And sure, if you want to be that guy, I guess younger people like Bale more because of nostalgia, but that isn't stopping the Keaton hype at all. Especially because nostalgia for 80s movies is still potent, even among the youths. Again, nostalgia is the biggest hook for anything, regardless of what era it comes from.

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

Yes it was popular at the time but now it is a style over substance relic that has been overshadowed by other versions of Batman. Many people mostly think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker and the production  design when they think of Batman 89. Basically it won’t turn Flash into a NWH or Maverick or cause crazy excitement among most moviegoers like many seem to think 

 

Maverick or NWH? Top 5 all time domestic movies? Its just something which "might" increase the box office a little. Its not going to make or break the movies chances. It will come down to the quality of the movie and the marketing. 

[Elessar]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

I wish I had a dollar for everytime you say this. Repeating it over and over and over. I love Keaton in Batman. Its a draw for me that he in The Flash. Others will think the same. Some will not. Think its worth a little boost. 

 

Indeed. Keaton is the reason Flash was trending and he is the reason i might drag my ass to a theater near me to watch this even though i'm not that big on CBMs.

[Eric the Ape]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Yes it was popular at the time but now it is a style over substance relic that has been overshadowed by other versions of Batman. Many people mostly think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker and the production  design when they think of Batman 89. Basically it won’t turn Flash into a NWH or Maverick or cause crazy excitement among most moviegoers like many seem to think 

Nobody's saying it will make as much as those movies. Please stop implying that.

[Dale Cooper]

36 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Didn't @charlie Jatinder say it could've opened $150M if it was received well?

It was never gonna open that high, though. It could probably have made 125M if it was well recieved, much more than that is just wishful thinking.

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Yes. Bales Batman is who is popular with the majority of todays moviegoers (think the crowd who grew up with Tobey as Spider-Man) . Keaton’s movies have been overshadowed by other versions of Batman and he was barely in his own movies. ( many immediately think of Jack Nicholson’s Joker when they think of Batman 89. Not Keaton) 

I think of Heath Ledger before Bale. I think everyone else does too. 
 

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

It was never gonna open that high, though. It could probably have made 125M if it was well recieved, much more than that is just wishful thinking.

 

17.5/106 around 6 multi. It could not have done 22M in previews even if its good? it was pointing at 23M after a while. Obviously reviews stopped that. I guess the debate is whether it had started to slow down before those reviews or not. But I thought 21/22 was very likely with a good not great movie. I dont think 125 was the ceiling. I think a good movie made that easily honestly. I could be wrong though. 

[YM!]

52 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Of course superhero fatigue is real. THE BATMAN opening to $130m was absurdly low and everyone knows it. Had someone told us all in 2019 that THE BATMAN would open to $130m, finish at like $370m and total about $800m global, everyone would have said that was on the very low end of its potential. 

Pre-pandemic, that would be a totally reasonable prediction and probably the average considering the DCEU tainted the reputation and had to overcome being a reboot. It was like TASM but did much better.

[John Marston]

15 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

The villains almost always overshadow the guy playing Batman. That's been the case since the Adam West days. Only real exception is Batman Begins, which is the least-talked about Bale movie. The other two movies? Batman's overshadowed by the villains. And sure, if you want to be that guy, I guess younger people like Bale more because of nostalgia, but that isn't stopping the Keaton hype at all. Especially because nostalgia for 80s movies is still potent, even among the youths. Again, nostalgia is the biggest hook for anything, regardless of what era it comes from.

 

 

Bale’s Batman got a much bigger focus in his own movies than Keaton. It is not even debatable. THE Nolan movies also are considered far higher quality movies compared to the Burton ones and the definite screen adaptations of Batman and like   I said the 18-34 crowd who are the main ones that power the grosses of superhero films for the most part don’t care. That doesn’t mean Keaton won’t have any effect at all but for the most part it will be negligible 

Edited March 18, 2023 by John Marston

[GOGODanca]

Curious to see how big a role Keaton has in the movie and how it ends with him

[Dale Cooper]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

17.5/106 around 6 multi. It could not have done 22M in previews even if its good? it was pointing at 23M after a while. Obviously reviews stopped that. I guess the debate is whether it had started to slow down before those reviews or not. But I thought 21/22 was very likely with a good not great movie. I dont think 125 was the ceiling. I think a good movie made that easily honestly. I could be wrong though. 

I'd say it's relatively reasonable. By the time social media reactions surfaced, the Alpha comp had it at 22M compared to Wakanda Forever. That comp overindexed by about 8%, which would have made that 20.3M. Wakanda Forever then had great social media reactions and very good reviews, so it probably wouldn't have gained too much on that that. Let's give it 20.3M previews with a slightly bit better IM over the weekend (it wouldn't have made too much difference in terms of that the first weekend anyways) and we land right at about 125M.

 

Sure, if we're talking about Maverick or The Dark Knight level reception it could probably have made quite a bit more, but no Marvel film has ever had that kind of reception.

[Lion Roar]

Just now, Dale Cooper said:

I'd say it's relatively reasonable. By the time social media reactions surfaced, the Alpha comp had it at 22M compared to Wakanda Forever. That comp overindexed by about 8%, which would have made that 20.3M. Wakanda Forever then had great social media reactions and very good reviews, so it probably wouldn't have gained too much on that that. Let's give it 20.3M previews with a slightly bit better IM over the weekend (it wouldn't have made too much difference in terms of that the first weekend anyways) and we land right at about 125M.

 

Sure, if we're talking about Maverick or The Dark Knight level reception it could probably have made quite a bit more, but no Marvel film has ever had that kind of reception.

At least half a dozen MCU movies have had that level of reception. Most recently NWH.