GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[kayumanggi]

 

See, over 87 markets for JOHN WICK IV and just 52 markets for GOTG III? Where is VOL. 3 not playing?

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Everyone likes to blame the writing first and I'm not saying better writing wouldn't hurt, but they are only part of the process.  

 

I promise the writer of Quantumania didn't approve the design for MODOK, ya know?  

Sure, but good script same modok design would get an A CS certified fresh 140M -> 350M kind of run.  
 

Same script exemplary MODOK is what like 215 instead of 214?  
 

I know you mean all the non-script stuff, and it can also be important for sure, but the quality of the narrative is the #1 thing to people liking it which in turn is the #1 thing for success.

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, I Am Eric said:

The reason why June is so crowded is pretty simple. Studios want to maximize summer weekdays for their movies and June is arguably the best month to do such a thing. 10 wide releases isn't all that different from pre-COVID Junes. 2019 had 9 movies, 2018 had 12, 2017 had 13. And honestly, for movies like Boogeyman, Blackening, No Hard Feelings, and Strays, their theatrical runs are basically just glorified advertisements for their PVOD/digital runs.

 

So really we got 5 bigly movies competing. And a couple of them will probably bomb and legs will probably be weaksauce for most of them due to smaller audiences and emphasis on PLFs, but that's just how the cookie crumbles. It's really not as crazy as it seems IMO and it's not like putting them a month or two later would magically make things easier or make them gross significantly higher.

There have never been this many high profile tent poles in a late may through late June period. I’ve followed box office long enough to know that. Wide release doesn’t equal tentpole/big budget release. 

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, I Am Eric said:

The reason why June is so crowded is pretty simple. Studios want to maximize summer weekdays for their movies and June is arguably the best month to do such a thing. 10 wide releases isn't all that different from pre-COVID Junes. 2019 had 9 movies, 2018 had 12, 2017 had 13. And honestly, for movies like Boogeyman, Blackening, No Hard Feelings, and Strays, their theatrical runs are basically just glorified advertisements for their PVOD/digital runs.

 

So really we got 5 bigly movies competing. And a couple of them will probably bomb and legs will probably be weaksauce for most of them due to smaller audiences and emphasis on PLFs, but that's just how the cookie crumbles. It's really not as crazy as it seems IMO and it's not like putting them a month or two later would magically make things easier or make them gross significantly higher.

June 2017 and 2018 were quite mad in terms of a new big release almost every week. 

 

If anything I'm surprised how quiet June 2024 is at the moment but that could easily change. 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No it’s not. Getting people to care about Transformers in 2023 was always a huge reach. Getting them to care in the busiest June of all time? Nah. Shazam proved what happens when you release a movie with no interest. Sub 60 DOM if WOM is meh or worse. Can’t count on China for the rescue anymore either.  

This isn't the busiest June of all time and Transformers isn't Shazam. I definitely think Beasts can fail to pass 300 (Albeit slimly) if it goes horribly wrong but failing to pass 200? That's honestly laughable to me to even propose.

[filmscholar]

I get it's the 3rd Film and it's been 6 years since Vol  2.   But 114 OW isn't that much better than AMQM.   Looking at the last five Marvel Openers, it comes in 4th.  Maybe estimates go up some.   Mario seemed to have the type of opening of a summer performance a month before the summer.   I honesty believed GOTG3 would fall but I felt it would be closer to Thor 4 than AM3.   Then I saw the tracking a few months ago and I guess the writing was on the wall.   Yes it's another 100 Million OW but what will happen leg wise?  There's a lot of competition coming including "Fast X" which his similar demos to GOTG3. 

 

As for Mario, yes not the greatest hold against a Big opener but it seems everyone their Mother has seen it now.   It literally sucked all the air out of the theater for a whole month.   I think it will stabilized next week but 1.15 Billion already  in the can for Mario.  So the "Comic Fatigue" talk is very real.  I feel like superhero films can have gangbuster opening weekends but it's the legs that suffer after the initially comic fan rush.    Doctor Strange and Black Panther sequels over 180 OW could be the ceiling for Marvel for awhile until the next Avengers or Spiderman film.   

 

 

Marvel's Last 5 OW's since 2022

 

DS2 - 187

Thor4 - 144

BP2 - 181

AM3 - 106

GOTG3 - 114

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

This isn't the busiest June of all time and Transformers isn't Shazam. I definitely think Beasts can fail to pass 300 (Albeit slimly) if it goes horribly wrong but failing to pass 200? That's honestly laughable to me to even propose.

That fine, I’ve been used to being told  things like sub 500 for ant man, 1.5b for Mario, sub 200 for Shazam, etc were all “laughable” pre-release. 

[Mulder]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

That fine, I’ve been used to being told  things like sub 500 for ant man, 1.5b for Mario, sub 200 for Shazam, etc were all “laughable” pre-release. 

Dude you're so obnoxious it's unreal lmao

[Cooper Legion]

55 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Sub 20 Sunday for a non holiday Sunday doesn’t seem possible. Has it ever happened?

Can you smell what the Gunn is cooking?

[Valonqar]

I really hope people won't set themselves and the movie up for disappointment with these expectations of only 45% drop next week. Right now, it has a great WOM among fans. Whether casual audience will care is a different story. Plenty of movies with fandom WOM didn't translate outside of fandom even if fandom was sizeable to begin with. 

 

If it drops harder than hoped next weekend, don't sweat, movies with strong WOM tend to recover and chug along later. 

 

As for OS, it can go either way. Remember that Spiderman 3 of all Raimi Spidey movies passed 500M OS. So while 500M for Vol 3 looks wild atm you never know. But again, don't set the movie up for disaappointment. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Finally crossed 200M. 

This is so sad, movie is like the perfect matinee early 00’s movie

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I really hope people won't set themselves and the movie up for disappointment with these expectations of only 45% drop next week. Right now, it has a great WOM among fans. Whether casual audience will care is a different story. Plenty of movies with fandom WOM didn't translate outside of fandom even if fandom was sizeable to begin with. 

 

If it drops harder than hoped next weekend, don't sweat it, movies with strong WOM tend to recover and chug along later. 

 

As for OS, it can go either way. Remember that Spiderman 3 of all Raimi Spidey movies passed 500M OS. So while 500M for Vol 3 looks wild atm you never know. But again, don't set the movie up for disaappointment. 

This is fair, like i said i do believe the likely scenario is good holds but not really stellar and 310M DOM (2.6x or so), so you’re right.
 

I think most of us are just thinking about possibilities tho, denying that with a possible 15% drop on SUN without any holiday like some people are doing seems a bit absurd.

 

I know the logical argument is compare it to other MCU titles, but let’s say it does reach 120M OW with actuals. That’s a ~6.9x IM and a completely different behavior than pretty much all other recent sequels. 
 

Projecting a similar different pattern going forward is very reasonable imo. 
 

And also i would argue this is the fun part of what we do, this is the first time in quite some time that there’s a lot of possible routes for how a MCU movie will perform and we can have fun making different projections.

Edited May 7, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ChipDerby]

Do people not remember summers pre-covid

[Eric Prime]

15 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dude you're so obnoxious it's unreal lmao

Moderation

 

Just a reminder that you can put users on your Ignore list if you find them obnoxious. It's certainly far more productive than throwing out insults.

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Do people not remember summers pre-covid

 

I remember feeling joy pre-covid, does that count?

[JohnCarterofEarth]

1 hour ago, DisposedData said:

It's going to flop in the states, but I doubt it will flop overseas.

That’s why I doubt GotG 3 will do $850M.

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

June 2017 and 2018 were quite mad in terms of a new big release almost every week. 

 

If anything I'm surprised how quiet June 2024 is at the moment but that could easily change. 

4/5 big 2017 MD through June releases were ones nearly all expected to be pretty big disappointments for their franchise (transformers 5, pirates 5, cars3, the mummy). Meanwhile 2018 only had 3 high profile ones in that frame (solo, Jurassic world, incredibles). 

Compare that to the 6 this year, all of which except Transformers have a decent amount of potential. I truly don’t remember anything like that for this stretch of the cal. 

[NCsoft]

29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No it’s not. Getting people to care about Transformers in 2023 was always a huge reach. Getting them to care in the busiest June of all time? Nah. Shazam proved what happens when you release a movie with no interest. Sub 60 DOM if WOM is meh or worse. Can’t count on China for the rescue anymore either.  

China may have declined but is not yet dead for Hollywood, Transformers has achieved the highest grossing film of all time there twice and even if this one's truly horrible, there would be a baked in $80M there at the very least. This really isn't going to be a Shazam situation. 

[John Marston]

21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is so sad, movie is like the perfect matinee early 00’s movie

Seeing people on Reddit going “why don’t we get more movies like this”. Uh because nobody goes and sees them 

[Maggie]

JUne and July are stacked, but i don't see anything breaking out big. The Top movie will likely not do more than 400M.

 

Transformers has BOMB written all over it. What were Paramount thinking in making another one so soon?

Edited May 7, 2023 by Maggie