Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Your quote is probably going to age poorly very quickly. 

Or you don't understand the gaming industry the way you think you do. A game on a single platform will not make $800m in one day. A Nintendo game will not make $800m in a single day. Scarlet and Violet, the biggest Nintendo launch yet, took 3 days to make $600m. That's slower than the biggest Call of Duty. 

[Flopped]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Yeah, the release scale was changing rapidly due to disastrous PS

 

Few weeks back -

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-book-club-2-knights-of-the-zodiac-and-love-again-plus-an-evil-dead-rise-update/

 

5/12/2023

Knights of the Zodiac

$5,000,000 – $10,000,000

$11,000,000 – $25,000,000

Sony Pictures

 

What happened here? I definitely felt the marketing muscle wasn't fully behind the movie (or any of the former HBO Max movies that were bumped to 2023 theatrical), not even close to movies like Scream or Smile. But it ended up outgrossing the 2013 Evil Dead with relative ease especially overseas, where it also passed both Screams last week. Did it just pick up at the last minute? 

 

• Closer on the horizon, Evil Dead Rise has come down to earth in updated tracking models, though it’s hard to rule out a last-second pop next week. After one week of pre-sales, it’s becoming clearer that Warner Bros.’ marketing muscle is not investing near as heavily into this franchise horror revival as TriStar Pictures did with 2013’s revamp, which opened to $25.8 million at the time.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean we did have insiders claiming as high as 17 yesterday am and afternoon. So either said people need to reevaluate how they forecast box office so early,

 

Indeed, some people need to reevaluate how to forecast box office....

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean we did have insiders claiming as high as 17 yesterday am and afternoon. So either said people need to reevaluate how they forecast box office so early, or something slowed it down… 

Yes. And, the same insiders claiming potentially as low as just under 15M before the studio released their estimate of 15.7M which is much closer to 16M than 15M. That same user said they expected it to slow down in the evening and it did. It's going to have one of the very, very best weekend to weekend to drops of any of the 33 MCU movies yet released. Again, this is a tired conversation. If anything the impact on the box office is negligible for this gaming event. I'm honestly more worried about Sixers-Celtics Game 7 at 330PM EST tomorrow slightly deflating the Sunday numbers than anything else.

Edited May 13, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Felandria]

Still waiting for numbers from Blackberry and Fool’s Paradise?

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yes. And, insiders claiming as low as just under 15M before the studio released their estimate. That same user said they expected it to slow down in the evening and it did. It's going to have one of the very best weekend to weekend to drops of any of the 33 MCU movies yet released. This is a tired conversation. If anything the impact on the box office is negligible for this gaming event. I'm more worried about Sixers-Celtics Game 7 at 330PM EST tomorrow slightly deflating the Sunday numbers than anything else.

I agree. We've already seen little to no impact yet same conversation starting again from Thursday. Hopefully, mods can nip in the bud.

[The Dark Alfred]

Solid, but far from spectacular second estimated Friday for GOTG 3. Behind RAGNAROK, but should recover the next two days, THOR only had a 29% Saturday increase.

 

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG 3  VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 8: (FRIDAY) GOTG 3 15.7m (estimate)

DAY 8: (FRIDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 18.361m

 

DAILY GAIN: RAGNAROK +2.661m

CUME: GOTG 3 168.401m  VS  THOR 173.351m

TARGET: MINUS 4.950m

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Solid, but far from spectacular second estimated Friday for GOTG 3. Behind RAGNAROK, but should recover the next two days, THOR only had a 29% Saturday increase.

 

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG 3  VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 8: (FRIDAY) GOTG 3 15.7m (estimate)

DAY 8: (FRIDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 18.361m

 

DAILY GAIN: RAGNAROK +2.661m

CUME: GOTG 3 168.401m  VS  THOR 173.351m

TARGET: MINUS 4.950m

Ragnarok being in november will mess the jumps comps but yeah so far is a good comparisson overall 

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean we did have insiders claiming as high as 17 yesterday am and afternoon. So either said people need to reevaluate how they forecast box office so early, or something slowed it down… 

 

But it’s a great hold for any cbm sequel. Let’s see what Sat does. 

EC said 16M nearly 20 hours before official numbers which came in 15.7M which is virtually the same 

 

XXR said +140% at one specific point while making very clear it will drop during the day, like it did. 
 

There’s absolutely nothing remotely wrong with how “said people” forecast early numbers.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, I know it's horror but Evil Dead Rise is going to cross 3.0 OW DOM multi this weekend. There are cases where lower budget films are holding and doing well. It's not like Air did poorly. For Air, 50M+ for a 14.5M OW isn't bad legs just not incredible legs. I don't think there was much of an audience for Covenant or Margaret to begin with.

AIR isn't doing poorly but the bigger issue still lies. How can Air barely pass than HoG when Air is having a much better operating environment than HoG in 2021? Similar to covenant, Covenant made less money than Nobody and Wrath of Man is another example to show that the market recovery just isn't going much friendlier to mid-low tier movie as compared what we had in 2021. And don't forget margaret is making more or less the same money as the War with Grandpa in 2020.  

Edited May 13, 2023 by titanic2187

[The Dark Alfred]

It's the sad reality for GOTG 3 that it's in a fight with RAGNAROK. While its WoM is good and expect a nice run, let's not forget that it is headed to a disappointing domestic total. The fact that it will finish below LOVE AND THUNDER and the first GOTG shows the damage MCU's recent poor quality caused even to a well established franchise.

[Marcos12]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Your quote is probably going to age poorly very quickly. 

 

GTA V sales = 175 million Unts.

Best selling Zelda game ever (Zelda: Breath of the Wild) 29.8 million Unts

 

they're not even close...

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Ragnarok being in november will mess the jumps comps but yeah so far is a good comparisson overall 

I mean this day being a holiday for Rag is what’s Messing it up specifically 😂

Edited May 13, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

It's the sad reality for GOTG 3 that it's in a fight with RAGNAROK. While its WoM is good and expect a nice run, let's not forget that it is headed to a disappointing domestic total. The fact that it will finish below LOVE AND THUNDER and the first GOTG shows the damage MCU's recent poor quality caused even to a well established franchise.

I don't expect it to pass GotGV1 but I don't think that's completely out the question. It could even potentially pass TLT's DOM TOTAL too. Unlikely though. But, that isn't a done deal yet. Personally, I'm expecting a finish around 325M DOM but it wouldn't shock me at all if it goes lower or higher than 325M by 20M~. If it finishes on the high end of that range, it will have grossed more than both DOM. Even if it doesn't outgross either DOM, it's locked to outgross both WW. Heck, it might even have a shot of outgrossing GotGV2 WW. So, all in all, not too bad.

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, I know it's horror but Evil Dead Rise is going to cross 3.0 OW DOM multi this weekend. There are cases where lower budget films are holding and doing well. It's not like Air did poorly. For Air, 50M+ for a 14.5M OW isn't bad legs just not incredible legs. I don't think there was much of an audience for Covenant or Margaret to begin with.

 

I know you're talking about legs, but overall Air is a flop in relation to cost. Not only was the production budget insanely high, so was the marketing. Dropping 7M on a Super Bowl spot alone. Crazy. Variety says it cost 130M to make and market but I bet the actual number was higher. 

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

I mean this day being a holiday for Rag is what’s Messing it up specifically 😂

Out of likes to react but lol that makes more sense hahah

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

18 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

The fact that it will finish below LOVE AND THUNDER and the first GOTG shows the damage MCU's recent poor quality caused even to a well established franchise.

 

The fact that it can finish as the highest grossing Guardians film of them all says something else. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

10 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

I know you're talking about legs, but overall Air is a flop in relation to cost. Not only was the production budget insanely high, so was the marketing. Dropping 7M on a Super Bowl spot alone. Crazy. Variety says it cost 130M to make and market but I bet the actual number was higher. 

Isn't that one a loss leader mainly for the sake of building positive relationships with prolific talent on Amazon's end? I'm not fully sure though, so don't quote me on that.

[MovieMan89]

17 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

 

GTA V sales = 175 million Unts.

Best selling Zelda game ever (Zelda: Breath of the Wild) 29.8 million Unts

 

they're not even close...

No one ever said anything about lifetime sales. We’re talking about the event it is this weekend. Zelda will surely be more frontloaded than GTA (which by the way that supposed sales figure has always been extremely dubious since if you add the reported numbers for each version of the game they don’t come anywhere near that). 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

The fact that it can finish as the highest grossing Guardians film of them all says something else. 

That should have been a given with 6 and 10 years of huge inflation. The fact it might not is still terrible for the state of the MCU.