The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Remind me again what was the highest grossing superhero movie domestically this year 

I don't consider ATSV to be a real movie. It's only half a movie. It even ends in a middle of a scene.

 

I feel the same way about Fast X and MI:DR. Which brings down all their scores.

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Exception, rule. 🙂

 

(really though, the Animation Penalty is a well known phenomenon, even with the occasional exception)

I agree, but I don’t think TMNT doing relatively decent domestic numbers fueled mostly by legs should’ve come as that much of a surprise considering the strength of the talent behind it and the good window between family titles, especially in comparison to Saw X getting an RT score 40 points better than the peak of the franchise and landing its best total in 14 years

 

Also I do think the Animation Penalty is beginning to ware off as time goes on, as I think the adult audience for high-quality animation content has been growing in recent years especially on social media

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I don't consider ATSV to be a real movie. It's only half a movie. It even ends in a middle of a scene.

 

I feel the same way about Fast X and MI:DR. Which brings down all their scores.

Speaking of, anyone know how well this film did on streaming this week? It seemed to come to Netflix with little to no fanfare? Which thread would be the best for that info?

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 12:33 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	67	13	32	8282	0.39
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 14 theaters	14	471	829	1867	44.4
TOTALS:	81	484	861	10149	8.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		239	133	27.76
Marcus:		222	97	25.78
Alamo:		111	27	12.89
Other chains:		289	227	33.57

 

Comps (for EA ONLY):

1.33x of MI7 EA on T-2/T-1: $2.66 Million

0.71x Barbie EA on T-2: $783k

 

The EA number is stupid good; I wish I had TMNT numbers for the final days, but oh well. I will update just the EA again tomorrow

 

Thanksgiving (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	18	8	39	1816	2.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	18	48.72
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		18	9	46.15
Other chains:		2	4	5.13

 

Comps:

0.41x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.16 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	66	18	50	8086	0.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	5	32
Marcus:		12	8	24
Alamo:		2	0	4
Other chains:		20	5	40

 

Comps:

0.31x TMNT (Just Tuesday): $1.2 Million

0,45x Haunted Mansion (Just Thursday*): $1.35 Million

 

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Thanksgiving (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	19	9	48	1899	2.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	54.17
Marcus:		1	1	2.08
Alamo:		19	1	39.58
Other chains:		2	0	4.17

 

Comps:

0.44x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.27 Million

 

Insidious comp next, and then a bunch of horror comps in a week. Tough to judge this one too far out since it's a non-IP horror, it's all about the final week.

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 12:40 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	49	52	244	9284	2.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		206	51	84.43
MTC1:		188	30	77.05
Marcus:		24	14	9.84
Alamo:		18	0	7.38
Other chains:		14	8	5.74

 

Comps:

0.5x The Marvels Day 2: ????

0.3x FNAF at T-14: $3.07 Million

0.72x TMNT at T-14 (w/ all EA): $3.97 Million

 

Went up against the Marvels on day 2, and this is not a bad place to be against those comps when their pre-sales window were longer.

 

The Color Purple (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	42	55	55	4403	1.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0
MTC1:		38	69.09
Marcus:		7	12.73
Alamo:		0	0
Other chains		10	18.18

 

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	60	186	430	11497	3.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		307	101	71.4
MTC1:		288	100	66.98
Marcus:		46	22	10.7
Alamo:		45	27	10.47
Other chains:		51	37	11.86

 

Comps:

0.42x The Marvels: ???

0.44x FNAF: $4.54 Million

0.84x TMNT (w/ all EA): $4.64 Million

0.25x Barbie (just Thursday): $5.28 Million

 

Average: $4.82 Million 

 

This just keeps climbing up, too soon for the b-word but I sense it looming. Every update, here and elsewhere, is super encouraging!

Edited November 6, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

I will post my updates in the morning as I am still getting Friday data but previews did increase today quite a bit from yesterday though its still well below Flash or Eternals. Flash actually increased like 90% in daily pace from previous day on Monday. I wonder if that will happen for Marvels tomorrow or is that something likely on Tuesday or Wednesday when effect of Social Media Reactions/Reviews will be there. Wednesday will be too late IMO. I hope we see some big action across the board beyond MTC1. That will be reflected in regional tracking where things have been bad. 

 

I hope we get updates from @rehpyc and @Inceptionzq as well next week. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-27):

Day: T-27, T-26	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 9 theaters	19	40	40	2187	1.83
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 7 theaters	8	114	114	1084	10.52
TOTALS:	27	154	154	3271	4.71

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		114	114	74.03
MTC1:		135	135	87.66
Marcus:		11	11	7.14
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	8	5.19

 

Any meaningful recent comps for this? Not really sure. Good start but obviously super heavy on EA and MTC1.

 

On 10/29/2023 at 9:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-32):

Day: T-32	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	21	957	7836	12.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		811	18	84.74
MTC1:		832	12	86.94
Marcus:		53	5	5.54
Alamo:		14	0	1.46
Other chains:		58	4	6.06

 

Comp:

0.0851x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.96 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-25, "new seats" includes the last seven days):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	15	972	7836	12.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		822	11	84.57
MTC1:		845	13	86.93
Marcus:		54	1	5.56
Alamo:		8	-6	0.82
Other chains:		65	7	6.69

 

*Alamo's update includes seats I found to be blocked off and not actually sold

 

Comp:

0.0827x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.87 Million

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 13 theaters	27	18	58	2977	1.95
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 9 theaters	10	62	176	1976	8.91
TOTALS:	37	80	234	4953	4.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		175	61	74.79
MTC1:		198	63	84.62
Marcus:		23	12	9.83
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		13	5	5.56

 

Comp:

0.28x Oppenheimer: $2.95 Million

 

The Creator comp next update, it's hard to peg this one down because it feels like it will be very EA heavy, at least until way closer to release.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

I don't consider ATSV to be a real movie. It's only half a movie. It even ends in a middle of a scene.

 

I feel the same way about Fast X and MI:DR. Which brings down all their scores.

Would you say the same for Avengers: Infinity War as well? 

[ViewerAnon]

On 11/4/2023 at 1:18 PM, Boxofficerules said:

Could Thanksgiving surprise? I read @ViewerAnon said it was good but couldn't find a tweet backing it up.

 

I know a few people who've seen it and all reactions I've heard are positive (though a consistent criticism is the third act isn't as good as the first two).

[Relevation]

21 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Comp:

0.28x Oppenheimer: $2.95 Million

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	66	18	50	8086	0.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	5	32
Marcus:		12	8	24
Alamo:		2	0	4
Other chains:		20	5	40

 

Comps:

0.31x TMNT (Just Tuesday): $1.2 Million

0,45x Haunted Mansion (Just Thursday*): $1.35 Million

 

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Thanksgiving (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	19	9	48	1899	2.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	54.17
Marcus:		1	1	2.08
Alamo:		19	1	39.58
Other chains:		2	0	4.17

 

Comps:

0.44x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.27 Million

 

Insidious comp next, and then a bunch of horror comps in a week. Tough to judge this one too far out since it's a non-IP horror, it's all about the final week.

I recall M3gan was selling terribly until the week of release.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I recall M3gan was selling terribly until the week of release.

 

 

M3GAN was horror, and non-franchise horror at that, which is one of THE most backloaded genres there is when it comes to pre-sales.  So it's hard to judge what is "terrible" in that context.  

 

FWIW,  do think the unexpectedly great reviews for it gave it a major boost above and beyond what horror normally gets, but still wanted to note that M3GAN sales pattern before the week-of release didn't actually say all that much.  Would expect much the same for Thanksgiving.

 

(realizing this is pretty much agreeing, but I guess I quibble about the word 'terribly' as that implies other non-franchise horror flicks would have been selling more, and they usually don't)

[Bobzaruni]

3 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Speaking of, anyone know how well this film did on streaming this week? It seemed to come to Netflix with little to no fanfare? Which thread would be the best for that info?

#1 US

Edited November 6, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-11]

500/12539 (3.99% sold) [+69 tickets] [82 showings]

 

1.16009x GBA at T-11                [5.22m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]
0.60386x FB3 at T-11                [3.62m]
0.46555x BA at T-11                  [3.54m]
0.71023x Scream VI at T-11      [4.05m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]
0.26838x TLM at T-11               [2.76m]
0.22252x AtSV at T-11              [3.86m]
0.51125x RotB at T-11               [4.50m]
0.23277x FNAF at T-11             [2.40m]
0.39968x The Marvels at T-11 [??m]

 

===

 

All comps rising is a very good sign, obvs.  Perhaps the best sign is Ghostbusters: Afterlife also rising as that had a similar pre-sale window length (T-17 vs T-15). Might sit down and do a rudimentary 2021->2023 ATP hike for it.

 

Either way, headed in the right direction.   Not sure when I'll do my next check.  No later than T-7.  Might do it earlier if the local conditions warrant.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	27718	29389	1671	5.69%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	497
Total Seats Sold Today	70

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.65		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		6409	26.07%		6.30m
GOTG3	32.05		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	15.54%		5.61m
TLM	61.96		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	25.47%		6.38m
AtSV	46.77		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	17.15%		8.12m
Flash	82.60		135	2023		0/178	23122/25145	8.05%		5327	31.37%		8.01m
Indy 5	82.03		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	35.05%		5.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     276/9184  [3.01% sold]
Matinee:    65/2719  [2.39% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]
3D:            136/4957  [2.74% | 8.14% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Only reason these comps aren't as bad as some markets today is.... y'allz are just catching up to Sacto which has been pointing to 6-ish for a while now!   Like, almost none of the 6m-ish comps budged today — which is honestly kinda grimly funny.  In a gallows sort of way. 

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	27585	29389	1804	6.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

133

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.34		191	3040		0/101	12928/15968	19.04%		6409	28.15%		6.37m
GOTG3	31.54		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	16.78%		5.52m
TLM	59.05		358	3055		0/177	22304/25359	12.05%		6561	27.50%		6.08m
AtSV	45.75		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	18.51%		7.94m
Flash	82.15		173	2196		0/178	22946/25142	8.73%		5327	33.87%		7.97m
Indy 5	79.58		230	2267		0/134	18442/20709	10.95%		4767	37.84%		5.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     305/9184  [3.32% sold]
Matinee:    73/2719  [2.68% | 4.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:            138/4957  [2.78% | 7.65% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

That Indy 5 comp continuing to drop isn't the greatest of omens, it must be said.  Eternals holding flat, more or less, is interesting, it should be noted.  But that's about the best thing that can be said for The Marvels, probably.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 937

New sales: 53

Growth: 6.0%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.955x of FNAF for $9.8M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.252x of ATSV for $4.4M

0.969x of The Flash for $9.4M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.2 (3.2)

Early evening: 77.4 (77.7)

Late Evening: 19.4 (19.1)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.5

Early Evening: 31.5

Late Evening: 8.7

Avg: 16.7

 

Still slow. Falling below comps, including Flash. Mainly, it's so meh. There's a bunch of showtimes that are still completely empty.

 

One thing I was thinking about during the update this morning is that we're lucky that Marvels didn't release in ots original slot, where Barbieheimer would have destroyed it. It would have created doubt about whether it was just bad timing or not.

 

This result is likely sending a clear message that things are now vastly different for the MCU.

 

The Marvels, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1000

New sales: 63

Growth: 6.7%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.790x of FNAF for $8.1M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.234x of ATSV for $4.1M

0.894x of The Flash for $8.7M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 4.2 (3.2)

Early evening: 76.7 (77.4)

Late Evening: 19.1 (19.4)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 3.5

Early Evening: 33.3

Late Evening: 9.1

Avg: 17.9

 

Growth staying firmly below double digits at this point is the biggest concern. This is just limping to the finish line.

[TwoMisfits]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

This is Turtles erasu...

 

...

 

Wait.  The series would have had to been popular in the first place to actually 'recover' wouldn't it?

.

 

 

I withdraw my objection. 

 

(I actually agree with you, but I do think TMNT's success this year came out of effin' nowhere)

 

Nah, you just need a little Fortnite gamer kid in the house...if you have one of those, these things don't come out of nowhere if you ask them what they want to watch - it's uncanny how well that works for box off predicting for what breaks out - at least for non-adult fare:)...

 

See, now I've given away one of the big secrets:)...play Fortnite (or find someone who will) to predict blockbusters!

Edited November 6, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

Folks, when looking at comps, please keep in mind holidays - particularly the 4 (maybe 5 or 6) majors - and how they affect the typical buying patterns.  When society collectively deviates from the typical routine for a holiday period, is also breaks social connections that drive the organic nature of ticket sales, and so depresses sales numbers.

 

5 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

. I recall M3gan was selling terribly until the week of release.

It was, in part because of the general backloaded nature of horror films sales, but also because it debuted on January 5th, meaning the pre-final week was over the Christmas/New Years Holiday. That's the absolute worst time for presales, and it should not be at all surprising that they were terrible before booming in the New Year as vacation period ended.

Same goes for Insidious 5, opening on 7/06, which means nearly all of its final week was disrupted by the July 4th holiday week, and also had the benefit of (perhaps?) the most walk-up friendly Thursday over the entire year (see previously even pre-sale heavy films Black Widow, Thor)

 

They're fine to be used as comps for other horror films, but IMO have to be viewed as more of an upper bound than a likely path to follow

 

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Eternals holding flat, more or less, is interesting

Ahem

On 11/3/2023 at 3:56 PM, M37 said:

Note: Marvels should improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

Marvels only holding flat w/ Eternals on Halloween likely means it falls back over the next few days as those sales catch back up

 

 

[M37]

 

 

 

 

On 11/3/2023 at 3:56 PM, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Something picture lots of words

 

Average has been fluctuating around $7M depending on which comp are updated each day. I suppose the good news is that Marvels largely is holding very steady against these comps - a whole lot of straight lines - but in MCU terms the bar is decently high for the finishing pace, and there's really not much to suggest its poised to outrun them over the final 7 days, if not potentially start to slide down. Will plant a flag on $7M previews, but if Disney doesn't round to nearest half million, maybe a bit below that, unless some of the lower comp values can start to come up and meet MTC1

Note: Marvels should do improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

 

As far as the IM and OW ... Friday numbers and beyond are actually lower. The day/day ratios for Drafthouse are very similar to GOTG3 and ATSV, which posted a 6.77x and 6.94x respectively, as opposed to Eternals 7.5x (despite being dragged down by reviews/WOM). The underlying issue is that sales thusfar are both Thursday and PLF heavy, and if the GA doesn't start showing up for Thursday, not sure why they would suddenly on the weekend. Friday probably gets an added walk-up bump due to work & school holiday observation of Veteran's day, but overall I'd probably take the under on a 7x IM (even if barely)

 

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Let's try this again?

 

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

You may notice the previous 8x8 ballpark - $8M thur & 8x - is now basically the bottom right corner, and 7x7 seems more likely. The blue line represents the cut-off for lowest MCU OW [whether one counts Universal's Hulk ($55.4M) or Ant-Man ($57.2M)] while the red line is the Morbius Zone, which cannot yet be ruled out, barring some poor reviews or some other combination of poor pace and lower IM

 

Maybe being the only non-horror (or concert) film of note since Labor Day brings people in by default, or perhaps the premiere/social media reactions/reviews helps turn a corner at the last minute, but to me even an "optimistic" outcome is nudging up into the light green zone over $50M

 

On 11/4/2023 at 6:43 AM, M37 said:

Well that was a pretty weak T-6 day for Marvels all around. The GA may just never show up here, and if reviews aren’t great, could be looking at a finish closer to AMWQ pace, down to - if not below! - $6M previews 

 

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-4 Update

 

Yeah, that T-6 weakness continued throughout the weekend, driving the average down to ~$6.6M

Note: I've estimated MTC1 at 64,000 (+3250) based on Keyser's wordy update above for those comps

 

The single comp that has been tracking the average line most closely is Orlando vs GOTG3, so if I'm looking at one update over next  couple of days it would be from @TheFlatLannister

 

Want some good news? Sorry, don't have any .... pace over this last weekend was poor enough that I think its reasonable to rope in AMWQ comps, perhaps as a worst case scenario, but throw them into the average. Looking at just the MCU comps we have - where data is little more scarce - come up with this

 

Here, the MCU only average is closer to $6M ... and holding very steady.  I'd probably take the middle of those two (for convoluted reasons), taking that flag I planted on Friday at $7M, chucking it into the woods, and dropping projection down to ~$6.3M. Won't be totally shocked if it winds up below $6M (before Disney rounds up anyway), but pending reviews that cut off what little momentum there is, don't think that's where expectations should be set

 

We're getting awfully close the Morbius Zone, but I think at this point its more of Watch than a full-blown Warning, and the OW - by hook or by crook - begins with a 4

[el sid]

Godzilla Minus One, counted yesterday for Thursday, November 30 had 131 sold tickets in  3 theaters (the AMCs in Michigan, San Francisco and LA).
Comps (always counted for Thursday): One Piece Film: Red (4.8M OD) finally had 849 sold tickets
and RRR (5.4M OD) also finally had 203 sold tickets.
65 (1.22M from previews) had on Monday of the release week 157 sold tickets.
 

And for Friday, December 1, it had 106 sold tickets, again in 3 theaters (the same as above).
Comps (three times the final presales number = counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): One Piece Film: Red (9.3M OW) had 882 sold tickets,
RRR (9.5M) had 103 sold tickets
and Belle (1.6M) had 83 sold tickets.
65 (12.3M) had on Monday of the release week 142 sold tickets.
 

Of course my comps and when the numbers were taken leave much to be desired but at least  the presale numbers show that there's interest. The EA presales also look good.