The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

A Haunting in Venice MTC1 previews(T-1) - 15964/278692 296504.08 1464 shows

 

I dont have early show numbers but its limited and so thinking 150K-200K range for that. Thursday if it doubles is looking around 1.5m. If the walkups are way better may be 2m is possible. But most probably it will fall short. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11265	18606	7341	39.46%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	31

 

T-31 Comps:

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

151.20

237

4855

1/294

32167/37022

13.11%

16800

43.70%

42.34m

61.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2172/6150  [35.32% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.05% of No Way Home's final total        [13.02m]

34.76% of Doctor Strange 2's final total   [12.51m]

43.28% of Thor 4's final total.                    [12.50m]

81.69% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.89m]

158.86% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.68m]

60.78% of Barbie's final total                    [13.56m]

 

===

 

One of the very very few remaining non-reserved theaters in the region reopened sales for their sold out showing.  Either it was listed in error all along, or they decided to squeeze out some seats and truly try to sell each and every last one, or something else happened along the way.  Either way, that sellout has been removed from the totals.

 

Aside from that, not much else to add except to note that I'll rope in AM3 in a couple of days or so.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11224	18606	7382	39.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-30 Comps:

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
BP2	147.17		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	43.94%		41.21m	59.75m
AM3	263.55		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	70.47%		46.12m	66.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2181/6150  [35.46% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.19% of No Way Home's final total        [13.10m]

34.96% of Doctor Strange 2's final total  [12.58m]

43.52% of Thor 4's final total.                   [12.62m]

82.15% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.97m]

159.75% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.77m]

61.12% of Barbie's final total                     [13.63m]

 

=========

 

Slight bump in sales over the last couple of days [Mon: +26 | Tue: + 31], but nothing that major from the VMAs.  Percentage wise a good boost, but not absolute. 

 

As for my threatened earlier thoughts... one benefit of doing seat level tracking since 2018 is that I've seen a lot of different day-by-day patterns in my time.  And the more I see the current sales pattern for TET the less I am reminded of recent MCU flicks and the more I'm reminded of SW films. 

 

Now don't get me wrong, the MCU is much more frontloaded now than it was back in 2018/19.  Even when taking overall pre-sale pattern buying changes into account, we're only talking minor degrees of difference here between the MCU and SW when compared to other genres.  And, the only two SW films I kept seat level data for were Solo and TROS, which have their own set of... peculiarities (I did in fact casually track TLJ off board and R1 on board but didn't keep either data sets [And neither of those were seat level tracks]).

 

Still, I'm stuck by the daily pace of BP2 versus TET and they really aren't similar at all.

 

Now there are a few HUUUUUUUUUGE asterisks/provisos here.  Overall show count for BP2 was much much much higher (3pm vs 6pm start times really puts a thumb on the scale here), which meant there were still a lot of desirable seats.  And, not only has TET been on sale longer (five days longer) it also burned off a lot of demand in its first few days.  Plus there is the promotion bugaboo.

 

But that very promotion angle was why I was interested in seeing if there was any real movement from the VMAs.  And... not really?  Not even at the showings that hadn't yet seen much sales.

 

Don't want to oversell any of the above.  Even if TET is more frontloaded and a typical MCU pre-sale pattern (and given all of the wildcards in play that is very very VERY much up in the air), it'll still sell a gangbusters amount of tickets in the final week of sales, especially when new showtimes are added. 

 

Do admit, though, that I think I would liked to see the needle move more from last night's "Hey!!! Major Swiftie Event Coming in a Month!!!" coverage/reminders.  When it comes down to it, all of the above wittering is just my reflections on the last few days of sales and today's sales and not any sort of strongly held belief of how it's gonna go from here.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Porthos

[vale9001]

the eras tour is not a promoted movie. Any new news, clips, anticipations as for every movie. Of course for all september sales now will be very stale. Then in october they will start with a strong promotional campaign. 

[Hilts]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: A HAUNTING IN VENICE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 17	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$17,200,000	$17,200,000	~3,200	NEW
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$11,800,000	$53,100,000	~3,728	-64%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$7,100,000	$73,400,000	~3,600	-41%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$5,500,000	$19,000,000	~3,650	-45%
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$626,300,000	~3,300	-28%
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,800,000	$67,600,000	~2,700	-27%
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$2,400,000	$39,400,000	~2,300	-31%
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$2,200,000	$318,700,000	~2,000	-29%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$2,100,000	$114,200,000	~2,300	-24%
Bottoms	Orion Pictures	$1,400,000	$10,000,000	~1,300	-32%

 

Jat will know for sure but crumbling scenario aside, Jawan should still comfortably make the top 10 this weekend.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

the eras tour is not a promoted movie. Any new news, clips, anticipations as for every movie. Of course for all september sales now will be very stale. Then in october they will start with a strong promotional campaign. 

 

That's.... why I wanted to see if there was any movement from the VMAs, as it is one of the first real pieces of promotion this film has seen since launch.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

That's.... why I wanted to see if there was any movement from the VMAs, as it is one of the first real pieces of promotion this film has seen since launch.

it makes sense that the little bit of promotion the VMAs provided, didn’t move the needle much. The show was watched by less than 1 million people. Until Taylor herself promotes again or we start seeing a traditional multi level, promotional campaign, I don’t expect any kind of relevant change.

[stripe]

2 hours ago, Hilts said:

Weekend Box Office Forecast: A HAUNTING IN VENICE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 17	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$17,200,000	$17,200,000	~3,200	NEW
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$11,800,000	$53,100,000	~3,728	-64%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$7,100,000	$73,400,000	~3,600	-41%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$5,500,000	$19,000,000	~3,650	-45%
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$626,300,000	~3,300	-28%
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,800,000	$67,600,000	~2,700	-27%
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$2,400,000	$39,400,000	~2,300	-31%
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$2,200,000	$318,700,000	~2,000	-29%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$2,100,000	$114,200,000	~2,300	-24%
Bottoms	Orion Pictures	$1,400,000	$10,000,000	~1,300	-32%

 

Jat will know for sure but crumbling scenario aside, Jawan should still comfortably make the top 10 this weekend.

 

Crossing fingers Haunting in Venice manages to open over 20M

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-31 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,785

New Sales: 93

Growth from yesterday 1%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 169.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Things are really slowing down. My assumptions about these potentially cancelle shows have been off. I thought Cineplex would address it quickly, or fans would start asking questions. But there's been no updates it seems, and it hasn't lead to any increased buying of people trying to ensure they have a day one ticket.

 

I think it speaks to the fandom having their attention directed elsewhere. 

 

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-30 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,835

New Sales: 70

Growth from yesterday 0.4%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 170.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

I have similar findings as Porthos, with no visible effect of the awards show promotion. I'm not sure if the ad was shown was part of the ceremony, or if it was aired as an ad, so there's a chance it didn't get aired up here.

 

Since the nuke of early shows, new sales have trended down very steadily from 211 the first day, to 164 to 116 to 93 to now 70.

 

I know that Swift is her own promotional machine, but, I really think this is going to need a push to casual audiences at some point. There's still time, but, a good ad campaign builds awareness over an extended period.

 

I think Star Wars is a good comparison as a sales curve. But, Star Wars was always associated with aggressive marketing push. You can't escape the ads when a new movie is coming out. So when you get to the final week, you have high awareness. This will not have the same advantage.

 

My initial gut instinct was for a $50M Friday. I'm cooling down on that a bit, and feel like it's trending below. 

 

There's still lots of different options on the table though, and how the Taylor Swift camp markets this down the stretch will matter a lot.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by vafrow

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Hilts said:

Weekend Box Office Forecast: A HAUNTING IN VENICE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 17	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$17,200,000	$17,200,000	~3,200	NEW
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$11,800,000	$53,100,000	~3,728	-64%
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$7,100,000	$73,400,000	~3,600	-41%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$5,500,000	$19,000,000	~3,650	-45%
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$626,300,000	~3,300	-28%
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,800,000	$67,600,000	~2,700	-27%
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$2,400,000	$39,400,000	~2,300	-31%
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$2,200,000	$318,700,000	~2,000	-29%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$2,100,000	$114,200,000	~2,300	-24%
Bottoms	Orion Pictures	$1,400,000	$10,000,000	~1,300	-32%

 

Jat will know for sure but crumbling scenario aside, Jawan should still comfortably make the top 10 this weekend.

If these numbers hold, then #6 $3M 2nd weekend is doable.

Edited September 14, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Haunting in Venice MTC1 previews(T-1) - 15964/278692 296504.08 1464 shows

 

I dont have early show numbers but its limited and so thinking 150K-200K range for that. Thursday if it doubles is looking around 1.5m. If the walkups are way better may be 2m is possible. But most probably it will fall short. 

Isn't ATP too high? Gotta be some error.

Edited September 14, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

Isn't ATP too high? Gotta be some error.

Does not look abnormal looking at raw data. Probably selling mostly in Imax/PLF in big cities. Then ATP would shoot up. Anyway I will check again to see if its accurate. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does not look abnormal looking at raw data. Probably selling mostly in Imax/PLF in big cities. Then ATP would shoot up. Anyway I will check again to see if its accurate. 

My data looks like $1.5M which seems like the case from MTC1 admits too.

[keysersoze123]

I checked again in the morning

 

A Haunting in Venice MTC1

Thu - 16957/279208 314548.69 1465 shows

Fri - 23551/688907 405267.31 3550 shows

 

Its skewing Imax/PLF in big cities as I posted above. Let us see how walkups go today. ATP will go down but hopefully it has a good finish. Also friday PS shows it should have a good IM. 

[Porthos]

Sometime within the next 24 hours or so, we should be getting our first Long Term Forecast for The Eras Tour from @Shawn over at BOP!

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

16 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Haunting in Venice, T-1 (early evening update)Thursday preview update, Southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 793

New sales: 221

Growth: 39%

Showtimes: 90

Theatres: 48

Tickets per showtime 8.8

 

Comps

0.893x of Equalizer for $3.4M

0.980x of Nun 2 for $3.0M

1.125x of Gran Turismo for $1.6M

0.683x of Blue Beetle for $2.3M

 

Added other comps because it's been so much higher than others. I think Equalizer and Nun are the better comps, but they did both decline. However, I'm pulling the T-1 early evening, rather than early morning like I usually do. It'll probably be higher by that point. 

 

I'm still at a loss at why this market would overindex for this film.

 

Haunting in Venice, T-0 (1:00pm update)Thursday preview update, Southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 1086

New sales: 293

Growth: 37%

Showtimes: 90

Theatres: 48

Tickets per showtime 12.1

 

Comps

0.832x of Equalizer for $3.2M

0.987x of Nun 2 for $3.1M

No comp for Gran Turismo 

0.628x of Blue Beetle for $2.1M

 

So, even with my T-1 update being much earlier for Haunting in Venice than other comps, it's final day increase is about the same, indicating a weaker overall rate of walkups.

 

If I wasn't seeing other tracker updates, I'd be guessing $3.0M based on my data, but we know that mine appears to be an anomaly.

 

Regarding ticket prices, this is doing really well in ages 19+ VIP theatres. They're smaller auditoriums though, but I'm pretty sure they're outselling the IMAX and are priced higher. It may push up ATP if it's a similar trend elsewhere.

 

[jeffthehat]

On 9/13/2023 at 10:41 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-30 (2 days of sales)

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5164

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 29.53%

New sales - 138 (+2.7%)

3-day average of new sales - 69.3 tickets

 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-29

 

Theater count- 24 

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5225

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 29.88%

New sales - 61 (+1.2%)

3-day average of new sales - 66.3 tickets/day

 

No VMA bump. Has been in a holding pattern for like 5 days now. I imagine this will continue until T-10 or so. Growth looks a bit better here than other trackers are showing, but makes sense given the lower initial sales. Portends well for other theaters catching up to MTC-1 volume by release date, imo. 

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I know that Swift is her own promotional machine, but, I really think this is going to need a push to casual audiences at some point. There's still time, but, a good ad campaign builds awareness over an extended period.

 

This is one of the truly unknowable wildcards at play.  Just what type of promotion is this gonna get?  What level?  What's the playbook that AMC/Taylor Swift are going to follow?  Is there actually going to be an expensive Television P&A?  I have to think there will be a talk show circuit run, but what about other press junkets?  Various world premieres?  Screening for critics?  Which critics get it?  Embargo lifts and all that other jazz.

 

I have no idea.  And very casual, superficial, glances at Google aren't providing many answers to the above.

 

Do think with talk shows gearing back up and starving for entertainment stars who aren't showing up thanks to the strikes, Taylor Swift (and co) will be in high demand.  But beyond that, I'm less sure.  Just no clue at all.

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is one of the truly unknowable wildcards at play.  Just what type of promotion is this gonna get?  What level?  What's the playbook that AMC/Taylor Swift are going to follow?  Is there actually going to be an expensive Television P&A?  I have to think there will be a talk show circuit run, but what about other press junkets?  Various world premieres?  Screening for critics?  Which critics get it?  Embargo lifts and all that other jazz.

 

I have no idea.  And very casual, superficial, glances at Google aren't providing many answers to the above.

 

Do think with talk shows gearing back up and starving for entertainment stars who aren't showing up thanks to the strikes, Taylor Swift (and co) will be in high demand.  But beyond that, I'm less sure.  Just no clue at all.

 

With such limited television programming, it's a question on where to advertise. One thing I've been wondering is if they advertise during NFL games. 

 

It's the place to get the most eyeballs. It's not what you'd assume to be the target market, but it builds awareness for middle American family that's the core of where the general audience market will be.

 

It's obviously a male driven audience, but I believe it's probably more balanced than people often assume. And, getting men on board will be key at the target box office they're hoping for.

 

It happened with Barbie, where people pointed out how female driven the audience was, but, pretty quickly people realized that at the volumes that Barbie hit, it drew in more male audience than MI7.

 

 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

With such limited television programming, it's a question on where to advertise. One thing I've been wondering is if they advertise during NFL games. 

 

It's the place to get the most eyeballs. It's not what you'd assume to be the target market, but it builds awareness for middle American family that's the core of where the general audience market will be.

 

It's obviously a male driven audience, but I believe it's probably more balanced than people often assume. And, getting men on board will be key at the target box office they're hoping for.

 

It happened with Barbie, where people pointed out how female driven the audience was, but, pretty quickly people realized that at the volumes that Barbie hit, it drew in more male audience than MI7.

 

 

 

Quote

Women and girls made up 46% of the NFL fanbase (ages 8-plus) in the U.S., amounting to 84 million female fans in 2021, according to data from last year’s SSRS Sports Poll. The gender balance is similar among the next generation of fans, with 45% of the NFL’s fanbase under age 35 being women and girls. Also, 56% of women and girls ages 8-plus in the U.S. are fans of the NFL, making the NFL the No. 1 league among this demographic.

source

 

Quote

On Sunday evening, millions of people will tune in to the Super Bowl — and roughly half of them will be women. The commercials aired during the most-watched TV program of the year are finally starting to reflect that reality.

 

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday the league had reached an all-time high of 187.3 million fans, with 47% made up by women. The ads have long been derided for being at best male-focused and at worst blatantly sexist. Commercials this year from Microsoft, Olay and the NFL itself underscore a new approach.

 

“We now have the highest fan base ever,” Tim Ellis, NFL’s chief marketing officer, told CNBC in an interview. “That has been driven by an increase in Gen Z and growth of female fans. In fact, our gender balance has reached its highest ever.”

 

Ellis said female viewership was up 5% for the 2019 season after growing 6% in the year prior. In 2019, 38% of “avid” NFL fans were female, an all-time high, he said.

(2020 - source)

 

Quote

Women have become pro football’s “LVII” most important fan base.

• Female NFL viewership overall is up 26 percent, compared to an 18 percent rise for men.
• On the most recent Superbowl Sunday LVII, female viewership rose 15 percent, compared to a rise of 10 percent for men.
• There has been a 25 percent increase in Sunday Night Football viewing by women, compared to 10 percent by men.
• Women also make up 20 percent of fantasy-football players.

The league saw women as crucial to profitable lines of licensed merchandise. Women make or influence 85 percent of disposable-income purchasing decisions for the NFL.

 

According to Nielsen, recent Super Bowls have logged higher female viewership than the Oscars, Grammy’s and Emmys combined. Super Bowl XLVIII, during which advertisers paid $4 million for 30 seconds of air time, was the most-watched TV program for women this year, with 45 million female viewers.

 

“Sunday Night Football” ranked first among women ages 18 to 49 for the first time last season, and Fox said its female football viewing audience had hit a record high. Women, and the companies who depend on them, helped NFL revenue top a record $9.5 billion last year, and Nielsen data shows women have grown to represent more than a third of the league’s average viewership.

(source)

 

Advertising might still be heavily tilted toward the male demo, but plenty of women watch football as well.

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

If these numbers hold, then #6 $3M 2nd weekend is doable.

Yeah, long story short, I had a major server crash this week and ran out of time to include Jawan. The next few weeks are going to be dreadful trying to rebuild some of my impacted tools and datasets from backups and archives.