The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

SUN - $400K
MON - $2M
TUE - $6.75M

Will have fully confirmed nos. tomorrow. 

Discount day meant Canada over-indexing. TUE did $870K in Canada. US was like $6.3M nationwide previews.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

Very unlikely. Last weekend was 130, say holdovers to 75 and MI 65 is 140, then holdovers to 60+Oppenheimer 60+Barbie 150 is still a miss:

1	Apr 26, 2019	$401,994,732	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007
2	Dec 18, 2015	$313,076,133	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$247,966,675
3	Apr 27, 2018	$312,340,779	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183
4	Dec 25, 2015	$296,418,979	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$149,202,860
5	Feb 16, 2018	$286,496,153	Black Panther	$202,003,951
6	Dec 17, 2021	$281,591,442	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$260,138,569
7	Dec 15, 2017	$277,940,566	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi	$220,009,584
8	Jun 22, 2018	$277,076,918	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	$148,024,610
9	Jun 12, 2015	$273,849,469	Jurassic World	$208,806,270
10	Jun 15, 2018	$270,884,807	Incredibles 2	$182,687,905

You beat me to it! (Of course, these include previews, really should be TruFSS) - which puts the Avatar Christmas  weekend at #4 all time, and with 2009 ATP, that was a LOT of admits)

 

There's a big cluster from $263M (#12) to $247.5M (#22), could see Barbenheimer OW squeezing into that range somewhere, if not sliding into 12th spot. But agree that above that to top 10 is a stretch

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

You beat me to it! (Of course, these include previews, really should be TruFSS) - which puts the Avatar Christmas  weekend at #4 all time, and with 2009 ATP, that was a LOT of admits)

 

There's a big cluster from $263M (#12) to $247.5M (#22), could see Barbenheimer OW squeezing into that range somewhere, if not sliding into 12th spot. But agree that above that to top 10 is a stretch

I haven’t done the math but presumably Ava weekend can’t catch Aeg even on admits and ends up #2?

[ChipDerby]

Barbie is opening over $150 mil though

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

SUN - $400K
MON - $2M
TUE - $6.75M

Will have fully confirmed nos. tomorrow. 

Discount day meant Canada over-indexing. TUE did $870K in Canada. US was like $6.3M nationwide previews.

That Canada number helps partly explains my tracking experience on this one.

 

Question though, isn't the Tuesday deal pretty standard across major US chains? Is there a reason it had more impact in Canada?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

That Canada number helps partly explains my tracking experience on this one.

 

Question though, isn't the Tuesday deal pretty standard across major US chains? Is there a reason it had more impact in Canada?

Canada does much better on discount day than US. Canada in general holds better on weekdays while US gets bigger FRI jumps.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The trajectory of "Barbie will be another Detective Pikachu" and "Greta Gerwig is a niche director" to potentially highest opening film since Wakanda Forever.

[Souther]

Is the Wednesday box office a poor start for Mission Impossible? 

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, Souther said:

Is the Wednesday box office a poor start for Mission Impossible? 

I would say yes. We’re probably looking at a total through Sunday under $70M. WOM should be good amongst the general public but even so, it’s a stretch that it hits $200M domestically. 

[MattW]

That $2 million and change is really just paramount giving back from the Transformers 4 OW

[ChipDerby]

$200+ mil OW for Barbie.

[Eric is Anxious]

Moderation

 

This is about tracking first and foremost. If you want to talk about Greta Gerwig and her career trajectory and whether she should get a DC movie or whatever, take it to somewhere more appropriate.

[Bobzaruni]

Barbie and Oppenheimer's promos are basically done because of the Strike. The only additional bumps will be from reviews.

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Barbie and Oppenheimer's promos are basically done because of the Strike. The only additional bumps will be from reviews.

 

They kinda already were. An article already said they anticipated them cause they knew something like this could have happen.

For example Barbie female cast went to Kelly clarkson show  at the end of june and all the interviews they're showing daily at good morning america this week were recorded at the end of june too. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

7 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Canada does much better on discount day than US. Canada in general holds better on weekdays while US gets bigger FRI jumps.

 

Thanks. I didn't realize there was a material difference there. Especially since the Tuesday deal isn't that great these days. But if it's more of a general weekday/weekend trend, then that makes more sense.

[Porthos]

On 7/12/2023 at 12:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7968	9600	1632	17.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today	8
Total Seats Added Today	766
Total Seats Sold Today	134

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	157.23		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	43.67%		9.75m
JWD	48.28		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	14.88%		8.69m
BP2	20.11		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	9.71%		5.63m
Ava 2	44.58		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	18.16%		7.58m
Wick 4	111.55		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	29.96%		9.93m
FX	119.82		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	39.59%		8.99m
Indy 5	100.25		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	34.24%		7.22m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       328/3144  [10.43% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.80% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 612/776 [+13 tickets] [37.50% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    737/4496 [+83 tickets] [45.16% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           283/4328 [+38 tickets] [17.34% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

It's no Barbie. but all in all not to bad for the weight class.  At least, IMO.

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	72	8305	10053	1748	17.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	453
Total Seats Sold Today	116

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	149.15		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	46.78%		9.25m
Dune	178.00		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	59.97%		9.08m
JWD	48.95		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	15.94%		8.81m
BP2	20.85		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	10.40%		5.84m
Ava 2	44.57		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	19.45%		7.58m
Wick 4	110.42		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	32.09%		9.83m
FX	121.64		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	42.41%		9.12m
Indy 5	102.22		82	1710		0/135	18997/20707	8.26%		4767	36.67%		7.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       347/3144  [11.04% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.74% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 631/776 [+19 tickets] [36.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    806/4494 [+69 tickets] [46.11% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           311/4783 [+28 tickets] [17.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was time to add Dune as a comp, differences in pre-sale windows be damned.

[Porthos]

On 7/12/2023 at 12:28 AM, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	12791	16071	3280	20.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	30
Total Seats Added Today	3358
Total Seats Sold Today	352

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	63.02		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	28.59%		12.14m
JWD	97.04		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	29.91%		17.47m
BA	275.17		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	72.99%		20.64m
Ava 2	89.59		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	36.50%		15.23m
Scream 6	385.88		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	104.66%		22.00m
Wick 4	224.20		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	60.21%		19.95m
FX	240.82		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	79.57%		18.06m
TLM	153.99		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	49.99%		15.86m
AtSV	126.49		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	33.66%		21.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       641/4252  [15.08% sold]
Matinee:    232/1814  [12.79% | 7.07% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        398/506 [78.66% sold] [+2 tickets sold]
Thr:    2882/15565 [18.52% sold] [+350 tickets sold]

 

===

 

74 fewer seats sold than yesterday??!? <@.@>. !!!!

 

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	181	17666	21378	3712	17.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today	52
Total Seats Added Today	5307
Total Seats Sold Today	432

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	66.64		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	32.35%		12.84m
JWD	103.95		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	33.85%		18.71m
BA	291.37		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	82.60%		21.85m
Ava 2	94.65		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	41.31%		16.09m
Scream 6	416.14		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	118.44%		23.72m
Wick 4	234.49		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	68.14%		20.87m
GOTG3	84.19		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	34.53%		14.73m
FX	258.32		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	90.05%		19.37m
TLM	164.83		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	56.58%		16.98m
AtSV	134.20		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	38.10%		23.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      703/5862  [11.99% sold]
Matinee:    270/2439  [11.07% | 7.27% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        409/506 [80.83% sold] [+11 tickets sold]
Thr:    3303/20872 [15.83% sold] [+421 tickets sold]

 

====

 

Don't think capacity is going to be an issue going forward anymore, @M37.

 

(especially since several theaters haven't expanded yet — and those that have have room for a lot more)

((Also added GOTG3 as a comp for reasons))

Edited July 13, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 7/11/2023 at 4:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-10, Milton, ON

 

Sales at 70, and 19 ticket increase from yesterday. Seems to be consistent with the social media bumps observed elsewhere. None of my comps had big increases at this point of time.

 

14.000x of Indy 5 for $100.8M

4.375x of TLM for $56M

6.364x of T:ROTB for $56.0M

0.814x of ATSV for $14.1M

2.800x of Flash for $27.1M

2.414x of MI7 for ???

 

Full screen allocations for next week get added this evening, and I'm almost certain this gets an extra showing. If this follows MI7 sales pattern, it'll go crazy in the next week and need those seats.

 

Barbie T-8, Milton, ON

 

Solid sales again. Barbie has now outpaced all my comps at the T-8 mark, overtaking ATSV last night.

 

I'm stripping away some of the comps, as most aren't really giving us anything relevant. I'm going to keep ATSV, since it's been the closest to its sales pattern. MI7 I'll be using, but, with how much it overindexed here, I'm not reading too much into the dollar figure, but more seeing if how Barbie compares to its late stage kick. I'm keeping TLM as the only female focused movie I have, even though it underindexed locally.

 

6.000x of TLM for $61.8M

1.080x of ATSV for $18.7M

2.077x of MI7 for $14.5M

 

Again, I've pulled out the comps that it was doing better against, but, just at the rate this is going, it likely continues to improve. It doesn't appear to be slowing down at all. It's averaging 20% daily growth for the past week, and I truly believe that this is going to have a very strong late kick next week.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-8	Jax	6	51	106	850	6,234	13.63%
		Phx	6	63	89	789	9,933	7.94%
		Ral	8	50	143	1,071	5,963	17.96%
	Total		20	164	338	2,710	22,130	12.25%
Barbie (EA)	T-7	Jax	2	3	11	216	319	67.71%
		Phx	1	1	7	196	208	94.23%
		Ral	2	2	2	168	190	88.42%
	Total		5	6	20	580	717	80.89%
Oppenheimer	T-8	Jax	6	28	49	474	5,083	9.33%
		Phx	6	26	39	504	3,996	12.61%
		Ral	8	26	46	546	3,295	16.57%
	Total		20	80	134	1,524	12,374	12.32%

 

Oppenheimer T-8 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .454x (8.16m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .628x (9.23m)

 - Avatar 2 - .496x (8.43m)

 - Scream VI - 1.915x (10.91m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.06x (6.75m)

 - Dune - 2.051x (10.46m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.758x (12.66m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.533x

 - Barbie (Total) - .463x

 

Size adjusted average - 9.33m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-8 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.07x (18.19m)

 - JWD (Total) - .979x (17.63m)

 - Indiana Jones - 3.8x (27.32m)

 - Shazam 2 - 6.76x (22.97m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .907x (17.51m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 26.97x (19.69m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.16x (18.96m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.159x

 

Size adjusted average - 18.83m

 

I finally get rid of M:I 7 and both of these start adding shows.  26 added yesterday between the two

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-7	Jax	6	54	108	958	6,498	14.74%
		Phx	7	68	214	1,003	10,113	9.92%
		Ral	8	54	151	1,222	6,232	19.61%
	Total		21	176	473	3,183	22,843	13.93%
Barbie (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	3	14	230	319	72.10%
		Phx	1	1	3	199	208	95.67%
		Ral	2	2	0	168	190	88.42%
	Total		5	6	17	597	717	83.26%
Oppenheimer	T-7	Jax	6	28	63	537	5,083	10.56%
		Phx	6	26	38	542	3,996	13.56%
		Ral	8	26	41	587	3,295	17.81%
	Total		20	80	142	1,666	12,374	13.46%

 

Oppenheimer T-7 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .461x (8.3m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .642x (9.44m)

 - Avatar 2 - .491x (8.35m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.06x (6.74m)

 - Dune - 2.027x (10.34m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.841x (13.25m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.51x (14.2m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .441x

 

Size adjusted average - 9.8m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-7 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.115x (18.95m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.047x (18.84m)

 - Indiana Jones - 4.177x (30.07m)

 - Shazam 2 - 7.62x (25.91m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .959x (18.52m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27x (19.71m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.18x (19.09m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.269x

 

Size adjusted average - 19.87m

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-15	Jax	5	31	6	63	3,813	1.65%
		Phx	6	27	0	60	4,543	1.32%
		Ral	8	30	3	42	3,672	1.14%
	Total		19	88	9	165	12,028	1.37%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-14	Jax	2	2	4	41	395	10.38%
		Phx	1	1	0	44	208	21.15%
	Total		4	4	4	85	603	14.10%
Talk to Me	T-15	Jax	4	10	-1	0	1,029	0.00%
		Phx	5	11	0	0	1,258	0.00%
		Ral	6	16	2	2	1,567	0.13%
	Total		15	37	1	2	3,854	0.05%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-15 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .661x (2.25m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .152x (2.86m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.125x (4.53m)

 - Nope - .825x (5.28m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .614x (3.84m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.81m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-14	Jax	5	31	4	67	3,813	1.76%
		Phx	6	27	0	60	4,543	1.32%
		Ral	8	30	6	48	3,672	1.31%
	Total		19	88	10	175	12,028	1.45%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	1	42	395	10.63%
		Phx	1	1	4	48	208	23.08%
	Total		4	4	5	90	603	14.93%
Talk to Me	T-14	Jax	4	10	0	0	1,029	0.00%
		Phx	5	11	0	0	1,258	0.00%
		Ral	6	16	0	2	1,567	0.13%
	Total		15	37	0	2	3,854	0.05%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-14 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .656x (2.23m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .152x (3.02m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.313x (4.8m)

 - Nope - .82x (5.25m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .621x (3.88m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.89m