The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

45 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

sarcasm right? I don't think a film that opened midweek ever increased on Thursday 

It's entirely possible if people were confused and thought it came out tonight, The casual audience does not pay attention to this stuff the way we do.  To them most movies start their previews on thursday. The july 12 date might not have even registered with them. Honestly i don't think Paramount even cared. They just  got a few extra days of release before next week's  freight train. 

[Porthos]

In a probably futile attempt to keep this on topic and look at pre-sales, the only concern I would have running up to the release of Barbenhemier is if the fallout from the SAG strike takes the wind out the sails of the whole phenomenon.  Or at least causes it to decelerate a bit.

 

I don't think it's likely, as it's probably still in the self-sustaining stage right now, but I do think there is something of a danger of people getting... I don't want to say demoralized but instead say "Stop harshing my mellow, man" at all of the strike discussion.

 

At the very least the stars won't be able to help continue to feed the phenomenon so it might not reach the total heights it might have.

 

 

If this happens, and again I don't think it will, I don't think it'll show up in tonights pre-sales (again, as I valiantly try to keep this on topic).  But I'm gonna be lying if sayin' I'm not gonna be on the lookout for signs of... let's say "wavering" in pre-sales over the next three or so days.

 

(also curious to see if having Social Media Attention be diverted away from Barbenheimer causes a bit of a dip)

 

Just something I'm gonna keep an eye on in the coming days.

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Porthos

[Liiviig 1998]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Ran some quick numbers 

 

Orlando

Mi7 Wednesday : 267 showings 

1862 seats sold 

 

Mi7 Thursday: 309 showings

2629 seats sold

 

41% increase from yesterday

 

$11.9M THUR estimate 

Well fingers crossed . Let's see don't how other chains are performing.

 

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not sure if that number is going to be close to the actuals but I could see O/U $80M at this point

 

8.8

8.5

12

16

18

15

12m Thursday would be good enough for 20m Friday and 60m FSS . 90m 5 day minimum.

[TheFlatLannister]

As I stated earlier, those Thursday numbers probably aren't even close. I just wanted to post the bump i saw in Orlando. Let's wait for a Jatinder update

[cupnoodle]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

In a probably futile attempt to keep this on topic and look at pre-sales, the only concern I would have running up to the release of Barbenhemier is if the fallout from the SAG strike takes the wind out the sails of the whole phenomenon.  Or at least causes it to decelerate a bit.

 

I don't think it's likely, as it's probably still in the self-sustaining stage right now, but I do think there is something of a danger of people getting... I don't want to say demoralized but instead say "Stop harshing my mellow, man" at all of the strike discussion.

 

At the very least the stars won't be able to help continue to feed the phenomenon so it might not reach the total heights it might have.

 

 

If this happens, and again I don't think it will, I don't think it'll show up in tonights pre-sales (again, as I valiantly try to keep this on topic).  But I'm gonna be lying if sayin' I'm not gonna be on the lookout for signs of... let's say "wavering" in pre-sales over the next three or so days.

 

(also curious to see if having Social Media Attention be diverted away from Barbenheimer causes a bit of a dip)

 

Just something I'm gonna keep an eye on in the coming days.

 

@vale9001 Like what you said earlier, WB is kind of based this time to delay the review embargo to 19th, at least have one final push in the last 7 day, wondering if they still have at least one spoiler or anything to keep the hype except the reviews
 

[Borobudur]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

As I stated earlier, those Thursday numbers probably aren't even close. I just wanted to post the bump i saw in Orlando. Let's wait for a Jatinder update

But I remember Orlando has been one of the less performing market, so probably that explain the growth rate was higher since the room to grow is ample. Other performing market may not be able to catch up with that high growth. Still, 40% up is something to cheer!

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

As I stated earlier, those Thursday numbers probably aren't even close. I just wanted to post the bump i saw in Orlando. Let's wait for a Jatinder update

The fact that Orlando was always running behind other regions in the lead up is interesting. 

[vale9001]

i don't get why some people are still so braked about what Barbie will make, against numbers there are objectively performing as a record breaking opener.

 

What's strange if the most talked movie since Spider man (with Holland) or even end game open just behind them?. What doesn't click exactly?. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-8, Milton, ON

 

Solid sales again. Barbie has now outpaced all my comps at the T-8 mark, overtaking ATSV last night.

 

I'm stripping away some of the comps, as most aren't really giving us anything relevant. I'm going to keep ATSV, since it's been the closest to its sales pattern. MI7 I'll be using, but, with how much it overindexed here, I'm not reading too much into the dollar figure, but more seeing if how Barbie compares to its late stage kick. I'm keeping TLM as the only female focused movie I have, even though it underindexed locally.

 

6.000x of TLM for $61.8M

1.080x of ATSV for $18.7M

2.077x of MI7 for $14.5M

 

Again, I've pulled out the comps that it was doing better against, but, just at the rate this is going, it likely continues to improve. It doesn't appear to be slowing down at all. It's averaging 20% daily growth for the past week, and I truly believe that this is going to have a very strong late kick next week.

 

Expand  

 

Barbie T-7, Milton, ON

 

Steady growth continues. Sales at 128, up 20 from the day before.

 

7.111x of TLM for $73.2M

1.174x of ATSV for $20.4M

2.000x of MI7 for $14.0M

 

From a dollar perspective, the continued rise against ATSV is the key one. ATSV overindexed here, so to be ahead and growing is a strong indication of where things are headed. Plus, ATSV was also only limited to one non plf theatre for previews, so it's a good comparison in that regard.

[Porthos]

On 7/13/2023 at 2:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	72	8305	10053	1748	17.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	453
Total Seats Sold Today	116

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	149.15		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	46.78%		9.25m
Dune	178.00		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	59.97%		9.08m
JWD	48.95		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	15.94%		8.81m
BP2	20.85		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	10.40%		5.84m
Ava 2	44.57		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	19.45%		7.58m
Wick 4	110.42		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	32.09%		9.83m
FX	121.64		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	42.41%		9.12m
Indy 5	102.22		82	1710		0/135	18997/20707	8.26%		4767	36.67%		7.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       347/3144  [11.04% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.74% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 631/776 [+19 tickets] [36.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    806/4494 [+69 tickets] [46.11% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           311/4783 [+28 tickets] [17.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was time to add Dune as a comp, differences in pre-sale windows be damned.

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	73	8229	10147	1918	18.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	94
Total Seats Sold Today	170

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	147.31		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	51.32%		9.13m
Dune	183.02		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	65.80%		9.33m
JWD	49.37		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	17.49%		8.89m
BP2	22.02		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	11.42%		6.17m
Ava 2	46.17		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	21.34%		7.85m
Wick 4	109.98		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	35.21%		9.79m
FX	129.59		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	46.53%		9.72m
Indy 5	110.61		74	1734		0/178	23414/25148	6.90%		4767	40.23%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       402/3144  [12.79% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.68% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                  650/776 [+19 tickets] [33.89% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    906/4494 [+100 tickets] [47.24% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           362/4877 [+51 tickets] [18.87% of all tickets sold]

Edited July 15, 2023 by Porthos
Accidently shorted by 38 tickets - all fields now fixed

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	181	17666	21378	3712	17.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today	52
Total Seats Added Today	5307
Total Seats Sold Today	432

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	66.64		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	32.35%		12.84m
JWD	103.95		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	33.85%		18.71m
BA	291.37		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	82.60%		21.85m
Ava 2	94.65		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	41.31%		16.09m
Scream 6	416.14		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	118.44%		23.72m
Wick 4	234.49		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	68.14%		20.87m
GOTG3	84.19		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	34.53%		14.73m
FX	258.32		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	90.05%		19.37m
TLM	164.83		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	56.58%		16.98m
AtSV	134.20		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	38.10%		23.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      703/5862  [11.99% sold]
Matinee:    270/2439  [11.07% | 7.27% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        409/506 [80.83% sold] [+11 tickets sold]
Thr:    3303/20872 [15.83% sold] [+421 tickets sold]

 

====

 

Don't think capacity is going to be an issue going forward anymore, @M37.

 

(especially since several theaters haven't expanded yet — and those that have have room for a lot more)

((Also added GOTG3 as a comp for reasons))

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	180	17310	21412	4102	19.16%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	34
Total Net Seats Sold Today	390

* NOTE:  Two early access shows which had 50 seats sold between them were removed from the schedule two days ago and enough time has passed to conclude that, currently at least, they are no longer available to be purchased (see this post for details).  The actual seats sold in the region today was 440 seats sold (440 - 50 = 390).

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	69.02		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	35.75%		13.29m
JWD	105.59		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	37.41%		19.01m
BA	293.63		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	91.28%		22.02m
Ava 2	98.75		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	45.65%		16.79m
Scream 6	406.54		117	1009		0/77	8738/9747	10.35%		3134	130.89%		23.17m
Wick 4	235.21		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	75.29%		20.93m
GOTG3	88.58		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	38.16%		15.50m
FX	277.16		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	99.51%		20.79m
TLM	169.36		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	62.52%		17.44m
AtSV	135.42		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	42.10%		23.50m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         815/5862  [13.90% sold]
Matinee:    335/2439  [13.74% | 8.17% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:         362/422 [85.78% sold]   [-47 tickets sold]
Thr:    3740/20990 [17.82% sold] [+437 tickets sold]

Edited July 14, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

* NOTE:  Two early access shows which had 50 seats sold between them were removed from the schedule two days ago and enough time has passed to conclude that, currently at least, they are no longer available to be purchased (see this post for details).  The actual seats sold in the region today was 440 seats sold (440 - 50 = 390).

these should be removed from sales two days ago IMO. not a big issue but removing them from today's sales impact true pace.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

these should be removed from sales two days ago IMO. not a big issue but removing them from today's sales impact true pace.

 

If they never return I'll probably go ahead and adjust it on my home sheets for historical records.  Still an outside chance they do return though and I'd rather not ping pong them back and forth until it's 100 percent settled one way or the other.

[kayumanggi]

11 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

[Human]

Are the projections for Blue Beetle's opening weekend actually only 10-13 million?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Human said:

Are the projections for Blue Beetle's opening weekend actually only 10-13 million?

No, tickets aren’t on sale yet. I think that was something to do with awareness, with Quorum? 
 

Feeling good about my high-teens prediction though. 

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

In a probably futile attempt to keep this on topic and look at pre-sales, the only concern I would have running up to the release of Barbenhemier is if the fallout from the SAG strike takes the wind out the sails of the whole phenomenon.  Or at least causes it to decelerate a bit.

 

I don't think it's likely, as it's probably still in the self-sustaining stage right now, but I do think there is something of a danger of people getting... I don't want to say demoralized but instead say "Stop harshing my mellow, man" at all of the strike discussion.

 

At the very least the stars won't be able to help continue to feed the phenomenon so it might not reach the total heights it might have.

 

 

If this happens, and again I don't think it will, I don't think it'll show up in tonights pre-sales (again, as I valiantly try to keep this on topic).  But I'm gonna be lying if sayin' I'm not gonna be on the lookout for signs of... let's say "wavering" in pre-sales over the next three or so days.

 

(also curious to see if having Social Media Attention be diverted away from Barbenheimer causes a bit of a dip)

 

Just something I'm gonna keep an eye on in the coming days.

 

To be fair, the press tours for both movies had pretty much ended as of yesterday. It's everything going forward like Haunted Mansion, TMNT (although both of those are already everywhere even without the stars), and so on that might give us a better idea of how the "this is how the strike is impacting the industry today" stuff that will make up entertainment news for the most part for the foreseeable future could affect ticket sales.

Edited July 14, 2023 by filmlover

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/13/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/21/2023	Barbie	$115,000,000 – $155,000,000	+32%		$303,000,000 – $426,000,000	+32%	Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023	Oppenheimer	$48,000,000 – $57,000,000	+3%		$164,000,000 – $194,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/28/2023	The First Slam Dunk						GKIDS
7/28/2023	Haunted Mansion	$22,000,000 – $32,000,000			$73,000,000 – $113,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023	Talk to Me						A24
8/2/2023	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000		$37,000,000 – $49,000,000	$101,000,000 – $145,000,000		Paramount Pictures
8/4/2023	Meg 2: The Trench	$26,000,000 – $35,000,000			$70,000,000 – $105,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
8/11/2023	Gran Turismo	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000			$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		Sony Pictures
8/11/2023	The Last Voyage of the Demeter	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$14,000,000 – $28,000,000		Universal Pictures

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Early Prospects for GRAN TURISMO and THE LAST VOYAGE OF THE DEMETER; Trends for BARBIE Climb to Potential $115M+ Debut - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Jonwo]

I think Meg 2 will be mid to high $30m OW OS will be another thing entirely.

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/13/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/21/2023	Barbie	$115,000,000 – $155,000,000	+32%		$303,000,000 – $426,000,000	+32%	Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023	Oppenheimer	$48,000,000 – $57,000,000	+3%		$164,000,000 – $194,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/28/2023	The First Slam Dunk						GKIDS
7/28/2023	Haunted Mansion	$22,000,000 – $32,000,000			$73,000,000 – $113,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023	Talk to Me						A24
8/2/2023	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000		$37,000,000 – $49,000,000	$101,000,000 – $145,000,000		Paramount Pictures
8/4/2023	Meg 2: The Trench	$26,000,000 – $35,000,000			$70,000,000 – $105,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
8/11/2023	Gran Turismo	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000			$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		Sony Pictures
8/11/2023	The Last Voyage of the Demeter	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$14,000,000 – $28,000,000		Universal Pictures

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Early Prospects for GRAN TURISMO and THE LAST VOYAGE OF THE DEMETER; Trends for BARBIE Climb to Potential $115M+ Debut - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

Still don't get why BOP is forecasting legs this poor for Barbie tbh, why would 2.7x be the best case scenario if it opens 155M?