The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[narniadis]

3 hours ago, Arlborn said:

It’s weird how little people cared for that movie. After the first one seemed to be a well received sort of superhero family movie  I thought the second one would break out a little, but instead it got dragged down with the rest of the DCU. Oh well, here’s hoping Blue Beetle does a bit better, especially OS

Its also just a mediocre hohum of a film. Wife and I had a chance to finally watch it last week and my wife said it was stupid and dull and she loved the first one. I could care less for either of them. 

 

BB at least looks interesting? Not sure if that makes a difference anymore tbh, but it doesnt exactly look the same. Imo.

[ringedmortality]

What makes Blue Beetle interesting? George Lopez?

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, Arlborn said:

It’s weird how little people cared for that movie. After the first one seemed to be a well received sort of superhero family movie  I thought the second one would break out a little, but instead it got dragged down with the rest of the DCU. Oh well, here’s hoping Blue Beetle does a bit better, especially OS

Shazam 1 got really really lucky to come out hot on the momentum of the CBM all time peak of ‘18-19, and to get way better RT reviews than it deserved (still don’t know what that was all about). At that time, all people needed was to see such a high RT score on a CBM and it was instantly guaranteed a certain amount of money. I think the first would have been a pretty huge flop itself if not for those two factors. 

[keysersoze123]

S1 arrived when DCEU had some equity. Aquabro did break out big just previous holidays. But BB is coming out when there is none. Plus I feel we have too much of these content not just in big screen with all the gazillion shows across all platforms. 

 

One interesting thing is I got notification of fan show next tuesday for BB at a nearby AMC. I did not check yesterday night when the mail came but the show was full by this morning. I was anyway not looking forward to this movie. Only movies I am excited for rest of the year are Dune 2 and Wonka. 

[Human]

8 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If Blue Beetle out opens Shazam 2, I'd eat my hat if it didn't also outgross it in total DOM.  Shazam 2's legs were epically awful (under 2x)...

I checked.  Shazam 2 has the worst legs in DC history. It is a few million from passing Watchmen, which previously had the record.

[Bob Train]

Blue Beetle has cinema day on second weekend and labor day weekend on third weekend, which could boost the legs. 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

42 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Blue Beetle has cinema day on second weekend and labor day weekend on third weekend, which could boost the legs. 

Is the Cinema Day officialy confirmed?

[misterpepp]

8 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Is the Cinema Day officialy confirmed?

 

Hearing Cinema Day will be publicly announced on the 21st.

 

And yes, 27th is the official day.

[excel1]

While a solo film is extremely unlikely, no doubt we see Blue Beetle and co. again if the film is decisively well received. 

[filmlover]

Showtimes are starting to appear for Equalizer 3, starts at 3:00 that Thursday.

[Eric is Anxious]

3 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

What makes Blue Beetle interesting? George Lopez?

[keysersoze123]

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 23776/471914 415249.16 2266 shows

Friday - 14845/628812 252596.57 2939 shows 

 

 

[The GOAT]

4 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

What makes Blue Beetle interesting? George Lopez?

All my friends know the low rider

[HummingLemon]

Blue Beetle seems kind of screwed. Its only hope for the Ow is positive reviews/walk-ups from Latino audiences. 

[HummingLemon]

$3.64M previews would mean a $21.84-$25.48M opening and 3x legs would mean a $65.52-$76.44M total. On a $120M budget this movie is screwed.

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by HummingLemon
addition to comment

[vafrow]

On 8/12/2023 at 6:18 AM, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-6, southern Ontario

 

My last post got picked up by Reddit, as my numbers have been seen as the source of optimism for some, but I caution anyone reading to understand the context of the market, and limitations of my data.

 

Yesterday saw an increase of 7.5% for the broader market, which is less than the trend of the last few days. That brings total to 341. That's not unexpected heading into the weekend.

 

Again, no good conps over the broader trend, but, the sales per theatre is 7.1 and sales per showtime is 2.1. At an estimate of 200 seats per auditorium, that's an average 1% of capacity.

 

I do have my comps at my local theater level, which provides the following

 

0.533x Flash for $5.2M

0.800x T:ROTB for $7.0M

 

Single theatre samples are prone to risk. But, numbers are positive.

 

But, with my theatre making up 4.6% of sales, but only 1.8% of showtimes, It's overindexing to the average.

 

Adjusting it so it's in line with regional average, it brings the preview range to $2 1 to 2.8M. And as market that has a much smaller latino population than anywhere in the US, and needs to be taken in that context as well.

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-5, southern Ontario

 

Big jump today, which is a bit unexpected on a weekend. Total sales at 422, giving a 24% jump from yesterday.

 

No full region comps, and, worth noting that this sales number is now higher than anything I've counted. I'm tracking this via mental math as i go through full showtimes, so chance of errors are already high. I'm wondering if I made an error yesterday, which would be why yesterdays increase was low and today high. Just giving that cavest as Cineplex doesn't give the luxury of downloading data.

 

Local theatre (Milton) comps stay steady, as sales have stalled here the last few days, but was generally the same for the unadjusted comps.

 

0.500x Flash for $4.9M

0.800x T:ROTB for $7.0M

 

Adjusting those comps to align to the regional sales, gives a range of $2.3M to $3.4M.

 

 

 

[M37]

12 hours ago, Human said:

I checked.  Shazam 2 has the worst legs in DC history. It is a few million from passing Watchmen, which previously had the record.

If you compare vs Opening Week rather than just weekend, to balance out seasonal differences, some notably terrible CBM mutlis:

 

Flash = 1.49x

Dark Phoenix = 1.54x

Shazam 2 = 1.575x

Morbius = 1.576x

BvS = 1.580x

Watchmen = 1.582x

AMWQ = 1.588x

 

With more competition in the summer, those two releases faded out just a bit quicker. The list of films below a 1.5x OWeek - meaning more than 2/3 of total gross was grabbed in first 7 days (+ previews) - is pretty small, and Flash is maybe the highest grossing film on it

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-5, southern Ontario

 

Big jump today, which is a bit unexpected on a weekend. Total sales at 422, giving a 24% jump from yesterday.

 

No full region comps, and, worth noting that this sales number is now higher than anything I've counted. I'm tracking this via mental math as i go through full showtimes, so chance of errors are already high. I'm wondering if I made an error yesterday, which would be why yesterdays increase was low and today high. Just giving that cavest as Cineplex doesn't give the luxury of downloading data.

 

Local theatre (Milton) comps stay steady, as sales have stalled here the last few days, but was generally the same for the unadjusted comps.

 

0.500x Flash for $4.9M

0.800x T:ROTB for $7.0M

 

Adjusting those comps to align to the regional sales, gives a range of $2.3M to $3.4M.

 

 

 

I’m assuming RoTB had strong late growth in Ontario. If so, RoTB comp should start to fall fast and get closer to the Flash comp 

[Tinalera]

Apologies for the really scarce info, I get what Cineplex gives me.

 

Strays

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Aug 17 (no friday presales yet it seems)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	1	3	11	220	231	0.0476

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	9	2	1016	1018	0.0019

 

This is literally what I get for my counts for presales. Apparently Friday sales are verboten at the moment out west for Strays. And for the Thurs shows, of the theatres I regularly track, these are it. 

 

I know August is a tough month, but wow this is....looking at empty theatres and lack of theatres doing presales for upcoming films is hard. Im guessing stuff like Barbie and Oppenheimer theatres are just continuing to keep those shows on the a lot of screens, and guess leaving stuff like BB, GT and now Strays just kind of grabbing whatever scraps they can

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, Eric the Turtle said:

It's still hilarious to me that the trailer for Blue Beetle (at least the first one that was around forever until they started marketing it again) ends with George Lopez quipping "Batman's a fascist!" I know it's easy for trailers to take scenes out of context (trailers for comedies especially fall victim to this), but I'm completely lost as to who the target audience for that joke is supposed to be.