The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

I haven't seen a single piece of marketing for Silent Night since the trailer dropped. Total dump job, but like Saltburn, most of its audience will just wait until it's streaming instead.

[el sid]

The Shift, counted yesterday for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 47 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 23 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 30 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 107. 
 

Comps: After Death had 1 day later, on Wednesday, 71 sold tickets
and Sound of Freedom had on Tuesday for Tuesday (= The Shift has 3 days left to come closer) 1.189 sold ticket.
 

The Shift, counted yesterday for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 78 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 85 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 27 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 32 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 222. 
 

Comps: After Death (2.1M OD = including previews) had again 1 day later, on Wednesday, 167 sold tickets
and Sound of Freedom (14.2M OD = also including previews if it had previews before Tuesday = Independence Day) had with also 3 days left (counted on Tuesday for Friday) 380 sold tickets.
 

Nice Friday presales. I'll count it again today or tomorrow to see if it has decent jumps/jumps at all (often films with a similar audience looked good at first but had miserable jumps in their release week and ended with around 5M OW).

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-9: 14.92%

Wonka T-16: 64.62%

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-23: 58.26%

Migration T-23: 30.38%

Ferrari T-26: 26.97%

Lisa Frankenstein T-72: 13.85%

Ordinary Angels T-86: 11.1%

 

Godzilla Minus One T-2: 23.11% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce T-2: 29.17% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-2: 36.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

[YachtyLogs]

23 hours ago, YachtyLogs said:

 

 

Wonka T-17 and Aquaman/Migration T-23 0 sales across my four theaters 

AQUAMAN 2

T-22

 

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

24/2861 (0.84%)

 

New sold: 3

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 21

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Pretty good day for Aquaman but seeing as 0 tickets is the baseline that's not saying much. 

 

[YachtyLogs]

23 hours ago, YachtyLogs said:

 

 

Wonka T-17 and Aquaman/Migration T-23 0 sales across my four theaters 

No tickets for Wonka T-16 or Migration T-22. Looks like the good Wonka reactions didn't move the needle around here. 

 

Also as an aside, I'm going to be taking a hiatus from tracking while I'm on vacation for the next week and a half. I might check here and there but I wanna not be thinking about keeping up with tracking while I'm gone. 

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, Alexrock727 said:

Any information about Silent Night? It's opening wide this weekend and looks like it's DOA.

Pacing similar to Operation Fortune and Sisu when I checked this morning. Agreed with @filmlover, marketing has been scant. Went with sub-5m in the forecast (which is up on BOP).

[Jake4]

24 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Pacing similar to Operation Fortune and Sisu when I checked this morning. Agreed with @filmlover, marketing has been scant. Went with sub-5m in the forecast (which is up on BOP).

can renaissance open with 20M? Variety and some others are saying 17-20m range

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

24 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

can renaissance open with 20M? Variety and some others are saying 17-20m range

Shawn’s estimate is $18M.

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-godzilla-minus-one-the-shift-and-silent-night/

[Cookson]

The early showing of Minus One seems to be doing really well around St Louis for today and tomorrow. 

[wboxoffice]

I have a feeling that Beyonce's movie will have a better Friday than Saturday.  It will be very front loaded...

[Taylor89]

16 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

I have a feeling that Beyonce's movie will have a better Friday than Saturday.  It will be very front loaded...

 

same.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Jake4 said:

can renaissance open with 20M? Variety and some others are saying 17-20m range

It's definitely possible with the average prices being so high. I went just under 20 as @XXR Delayed Until 2025 mentioned, shout out to @TwoMisfits as well for some compelling arguments the other day.

 

But the range is 14-25 on account of so many wild card aspects and Eras Tour being the only valuable comp (though it didn't have proper Thursday previews to soak up tons of business until the last minute, so even that is worth a bit less in some way). I've talked with a couple of exhibitor connections that still feel 25-30 is on the table but I'm not sure how recent their data was/is.

 

As I'm sure others have probably noted in here, the pace of sales has just been dead from everything I monitor. I think it's still going to be a moral and financial industry win by account of being an unexpected release produced for far less than it'll gross. We may have just gotten a little carried away in expectations over the last two months after seeing what Taylor did (and even trying to adjust down for not having her crazy wild fan base).

 

But we shall this weekend.

 

I'm impressed with Godzilla's EA sales tonight as well.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
158	1572	31688	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-57

315

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

T-2 

0.129x of TET $4.82M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
158	1719	31688	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

T-1

0.132x of TET $4.96M

[SaltyPistola]

3 hours ago, Cookson said:

The early showing of Minus One seems to be doing really well around St Louis for today and tomorrow. 

Does this have the potential to break out? I feel like a lot of factors around it have kinda put a cap on how much business it can do.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:21 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	394	31274	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.390x) of Exorcist $1.13M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.13M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	443	31274	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.390x) of Exorcist $1.11M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.11M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	194	33106	0.59%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.703x) of Trolls 3 $914k Previews

(0.504x) of Elemental $1.21M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.06M

 

This just isn't doing anything at all...I guess its fine

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	193	33106	0.58%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.682x) of Trolls 3 $887k Previews

(0.495x) of Elemental $1.19M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.04M

 

1 return no sales 

[Taylor89]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

It's definitely possible with the average prices being so high. I went just under 20 as @XXR Delayed Until 2025 mentioned, shout out to @TwoMisfits as well for some compelling arguments the other day.

 

But the range is 14-25 on account of so many wild card aspects and Eras Tour being the only valuable comp (though it didn't have proper Thursday previews to soak up tons of business until the last minute, so even that is worth a bit less in some way). I've talked with a couple of exhibitor connections that still feel 25-30 is on the table but I'm not sure how recent their data was/is.

 

As I'm sure others have probably noted in here, the pace of sales has just been dead from everything I monitor. I think it's still going to be a moral and financial industry win by account of being an unexpected release produced for far less than it'll gross. We may have just gotten a little carried away in expectations over the last two months after seeing what Taylor did (and even trying to adjust down for not having her crazy wild fan base).

 

But we shall this weekend.

 

I'm impressed with Godzilla's EA sales tonight as well.

 

 

I think they say that based on a fact that Beyonce's fans buy everything last minute but I don't know if this would work here too. lol

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

 

I think they say that based on a fact that Beyonce's fans buy everything last minute but I don't know if this would work here too. lol

 

It's like trying to predict the Taylor movie earlier - throw a dart, and you might be more accurate than your actual thoughts b/c these are so one-off (yep, Shawn, I'm prepping to be wildly wrong this week - in some ways, I hope I am so we can have huge box office...and now, in some ways I'm not, so I haven't walked you down the wrong path:)...

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	806	36197	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.432x) of Indy 5 $3.11M Previews

(0.350x) of TLM $3.61M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.36M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	839	36197	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.441x) of Indy 5 $3.17M Previews

(0.348x) of TLM $3.59M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.38M

 

Just okay

Edited November 30, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	765	38536	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.371x) of The Marvels $2.45M Previews

(0.453x) of Indy 5 $3.26M Previews

(0.166x) of GOTG 3 $2.91M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.87M

 

*No Blue Beetle comp or Flash comp until T-22. Using Indy 5 and Guardians temporarily  

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	783	38536	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.369x) of The Marvels $2.44M Previews

(0.460x) of Indy 5 $3.31M Previews

(0.168x) of GOTG 3 $2.94M Previews

(0.492x) of The Flash $4.77M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.37M

 

Flash comp is right around where I estimated 

 

 

On 11/24/2023 at 7:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

BTW, if I had to guess Blue Beetle comp will spit out ~$6M once i add it 

 

Flash should be around ~$4.5M