The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Tomato Law reigns supreme yet again. And there's no novelty or morbid curiosity factor that'll save it at this point.

[keysersoze123]

On 1/30/2024 at 9:23 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Valentine's day BO MTC1 (2/14)

Madame Web - 7655/520989 130090.81 2461 shows

Bob Marley - 8817/276230 130461.53 1734 shows

 

Neither number is good. But MW is just for 1 day and I am not sure how long Marley has been on sale. I expect it to be even more frontloaded than Madame Web looking at BO runs of Renaissance and Color Purple. Let me look beyond OD later after few days of PS for MW to see if that holds true. My bet is for MW to win the weekend. 

Madame Web - 9693/530781 164497.71 2505 shows +2038

Bob Marley - 13340/281136 197073.98 1778 shows +4523

 

I might have been too harsh on Marley. I had assumed the sales had been there for a while. Based on @abracadabra1998 it started late(may be on the same day). Pace over past 2 days for both movies kind of confirm that. Marley will win VD for sure. That said we have to see how rest of the weekend goes. I will see if Friday also has improved similar to VD.

 

MW pace is terrible and so I would keep expectations low for it. 

[HummingLemon496]

So Madame Web probably does like $4M or whatever on 💗 day and then crashes

Edited February 1 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

37 minutes ago, dallas said:

Yep, hopefully The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare does better because Henry Cavill desperately needs a win. 

Considering this is a glorified cameo from what it sounds like this should not be seen as a strike against him or anything anyway. 

[emoviefan]

It could not be said too many  times that Dune  Part 2 can  not come soon enough.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web - 9693/530781 164497.71 2505 shows +2038

Bob Marley - 13340/281136 197073.98 1778 shows +4523

 

I might have been too harsh on Marley. I had assumed the sales had been there for a while. Based on @abracadabra1998 it started late(may be on the same day). Pace over past 2 days for both movies kind of confirm that. Marley will win VD for sure. That said we have to see how rest of the weekend goes. I will see if Friday also has improved similar to VD.

 

MW pace is terrible and so I would keep expectations low for it. 

Bob Marley started the pre sales 7 days before Madame Web. I know cuz I have a friend who is a fan of him and bought his ticket on JAN 23.

 

Anyways, you can also see a post about this on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/8iYlMEHB7x

Or officially here:

https://m.facebook.com/BobMarley/videos/bob-marley-one-love-tickets-on-sale-today/1549617069202585/

 

what’s impressive about the numbers you’ve just updated is that OL took 8 days to sell 8.8k but in the past two days it sold 4.5k. Maybe it may have to do with events for fans they are doing. 

Edited February 1 by leoh

[BadOlCatSylvester]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It could not be said too many  times that Dune  Part 2 can  not come soon enough.

Between Barbie last year, Dune 2 this year and possibly Superman next year, Warner can gain a lot of leverage on exhibitors by essentially supplying them with gallons of water in a scorching hot, desolate desert. If they play their cards right they can become the next Disney, or at least the closest thing to it.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

23 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It could not be said too many  times that Dune  Part 2 can  not come soon enough.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 25151/334028 472561.73 1676 shows +3716

Friday - 25759/652957 455110.81 3267 shows +5188

 

Its DOA at this point. I would be happy with 15m OW at this point. Could miss 2m previews as well. 

Yikes. That's a very bad final day. I know you were saying previous days were bad but kind of felt okay to me but today is truly a bad day.

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 25151/334028 472561.73 1676 shows +3716

Friday - 25759/652957 455110.81 3267 shows +5188

 

Its DOA at this point. I would be happy with 15m OW at this point. Could miss 2m previews as well. 

Reviews are atrocious.

[M37]

2 hours ago, leoh said:

Bob Marley started the pre sales 7 days before Madame Web. I know cuz I have a friend who is a fan of him and bought his ticket on JAN 23.

Yes, but MTC1 didn’t put them on sale until a few days later, around the 25th or 26th (when Dune went on sale). So for those numbers, it didn’t have as much of a head start 

[Porthos]

On 1/31/2024 at 2:05 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23319	24729	1410	5.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-30 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	95.66		22	1474		0/171	22312/23786	6.20%		2915	48.37%		17.22m
BP2	28.11		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	8.39%		7.87m
GOTG3	65.37		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	13.12%		11.44m
Fast X	207.96		8	678		0/182	27060/27738	2.44%		4122	34.21%		15.60m
Indy 5	211.08		33	668		0/124	18859/19527	3.42%		4767	29.58%		15.20m
Oppy	210.13		18	671		0/51	7037/7708	8.71%		10750	13.12%		22.06m
AM3	50.34		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	13.46%		8.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     390/8153  [4.78% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.35% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:    588/814  [72.24% sold] [+6 tickets]
Thr:    822/23915  [3.44% sold] [+48 tickets]
PLF:    1228/9813  [12.51% | 87.09% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Finally starting to slow down and enter the fallow period of the "u curve", as is to be expected.

 

Also, against my better judgement, added Indy 5 to the comp block.  What's the harm in adding one more terrible comp after all, right?

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23267	24729	1462	5.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-29 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.12		47	1521		0/171	22263/23784	6.40%		2915	50.15%		17.30m
BP2	28.44		125	5141		1/294	31881/37022	13.89%		16800	8.70%		7.96m
GOTG3	62.19		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	13.60%		10.88m
Fast X	206.50		30	708		0/182	27030/27738	2.55%		4122	35.47%		15.49m
Indy 5	212.50		20	688		0/124	18839/19527	3.52%		4767	30.67%		15.30m
Oppy	210.06		25	696		0/53	7554/8250	8.44%		10750	13.60%		22.06m
AM3	47.81		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	13.96%		8.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     403/8153  [4.94% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        592/814  [72.73% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    870/23915  [3.64% sold] [+48 tickets]
PLF:    1263/9813  [12.87% | 86.39% of all tickets sold]

[dallas]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Between Barbie last year, Dune 2 this year and possibly Superman next year, Warner can gain a lot of leverage on exhibitors by essentially supplying them with gallons of water in a scorching hot, desolate desert. If they play their cards right they can become the next Disney, or at least the closest thing to it.

Warner Bros has a very solid lineup next year with Minecraft, Superman, and of course The Batman 2. They'll have a lot of momentum going into next year too with the likely success of Dune 2, Beetlejuice 2, and Joker 2. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-15 (D2)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 26

New Sales: 8

Growth: 44%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 17/6

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/5

IMAX: 12/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D2 Comps

0.897x Aquaman 2 for $4.0M

0.342 HG:BoSS for $2.0M

 

Avg: $3.0M

 

Nothing too noteworthy. A modest growth for day 2. I did check the Friday sales, and it's at 50% of opening day. It points to similar risk of a front loaded stretch due to Valentine's Day.

 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-14 (D3)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 38

New Sales: 12

Growth: 46%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Thursday Sales: 12

Friday Sales: 20

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 27/6

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 16/5

IMAX: 22/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D3 Comps

1.000x Aquaman 2 for $4.5M

0.396 HG:BoSS for $2.3M

 

Avg: $3.4M

 

Decent growth again, and rose against comps.

 

I will probably switch over to T minus comps tomorrow or the weekend. I'm debating on whether to include The Marvels as a comp, but I'm pretty sure that 

 

I've added quick counts for Thursday and Friday shows for now while numbers are low and it's easy enough. It does show that drop off being dramatic.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-30 Thursday previews and T-26 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 170

New Sales: 5

Growth: 3.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 129/9

Late Evening: 38/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 94/4

VIP: 31/4

4dx: 2/2

 

EA shows

 

321 tickets across 2 showings

 

A couple of interesting things. First, one location has seemingly dropped their showtimes. I'm guessing it's a glitch, as that location had 17 sales across three showings. I've just kept the prior day sales in their for continuity until it presumably gets restored.

 

But growth just dropped off completely. Only one block of tickets sold since yesterday for previews, and a handful for the EA. Not sure if it's just a bad day, or sign that die hards have gotten their tickets, and things will be pretty quiet until promotion picks up.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-29 Thursday previews and T-25 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 173

New Sales: 3

Growth: 1.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 130/9

Late Evening: 38/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 37/7

IMAX: 101/4

VIP: 31/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

329 tickets across 2 showings

 

The showtimes that disappeared, have reappeared, but there's been a shift of showtimes, with a new lste show added. And, some of its sales dropped off, even in the showings that didn't change.

 

Still, it's low growth, and likely bottom of the U as others have said.

[vafrow]

 

Some odds and ends

 

Argylle is only playing in 3 of the 5 theatres in my radius this evening and has 72 tickets sold across 4 showtimes. This is below T-1 comps for Mean Girls (110) and Night Swim (106).

 

I see One Love updates from other people here, but it's still not available at MTC4 yet.

 

Lisa Frankenstein became available Tuesday night with just the regular sets becoming available. It's not sold anything yet for Thursday night in my radius.

[el sid]

I'm sorry, I was too busy yesterday to search for comparison numbers etc. but I did count.

Argylle, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 122 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 115 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 233 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 351 (7 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 847.

Up mediocre 34.5% since Monday.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The 355 (350k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 1.7M.
Expend4bles (750k) had 210 = 3M.
Plane (435k) had 161 = 2.3M.
Amsterdam (550k) had 222 = 2.1M.
The Menu (1M) had 297 = 2.9M.
Bullet Train (4.6M) had 1.238 = 3.15M.
And The Beekeeper (2.4M, good walk-ups) had sold tickets = unrealistic 5.4M.

 

Average (without The Beekeeper): 2.5M.

Thursday update in a few hours.

 

[leoh]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-14 (D3)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 38

New Sales: 12

Growth: 46%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Thursday Sales: 12

Friday Sales: 20

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 27/6

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 16/5

IMAX: 22/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D3 Comps

1.000x Aquaman 2 for $4.5M

0.396 HG:BoSS for $2.3M

 

Avg: $3.4M

 

Decent growth again, and rose against comps.

 

I will probably switch over to T minus comps tomorrow or the weekend. I'm debating on whether to include The Marvels as a comp, but I'm pretty sure that 

 

I've added quick counts for Thursday and Friday shows for now while numbers are low and it's easy enough. It does show that drop off being dramatic.

This matches AMC NY numbers. Madame Web is having decent growths here as well.

 

However I’m doing like @TheFlatLannister and comparing it to Aquaman, Blue Beetle instead of BoSS. It’s also having better pre-sales than Morbius in AMC NY theaters.

 

Yet I think it’s a good idea adding The Marvels as a comp (keeping Aquaman as a comp as well).

[VanillaSkies]

It was bound to happen, and smart of Sony too.

 

https://x.com/filmupdates/status/1753075344368968124?s=46

 

Anyone But You: Valentine’s encore with extra footage out February 9th!

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

This matches AMC NY numbers. Madame Web is having decent growths here as well.

 

However I’m doing like @TheFlatLannister and comparing it to Aquaman, Blue Beetle instead of BoSS. It’s also having better pre-sales than Morbius in AMC NY theaters.

 

Yet I think it’s a good idea adding The Marvels as a comp (keeping Aquaman as a comp as well).

 

I have limited comp sets for my current tracking zone, so I only go back to November. But, Hunger Games feels like the most relevant among what I have.

 

I'll likely add Marvels, but, anything MCU is always front loaded, and the Valentine's Day factor for MW will likely lead to better walk ups. I also didn't track initial days on Marvels, so it'll only be relevant once I switch to T minus tracking. But, when I do add it, it's going to spit out a low number ($1M range) because of that front end demand and that I believe Marvels overperformed here.

 

Aquaman is the other, which I'm obviously using, but, it also only became available for sale very late in the run. It's going to give an inflated number for a few days when I switch.