The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheTom]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 72643/459026 1097764.45 2963 shows +9518

Friday - 11207/387877 173974.29 2310 shows +1209

 

Good bump considering SB. 

9898 (Saturday) + 1209 (Sunday) isn’t it 11107?????

 

I think there’s a typo @keysersoze123

Edited February 12 by TheTom

[Porthos]

On 2/11/2024 at 2:24 AM, Porthos said:

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22828	24716	1888	7.64%

 

Total Net Seats Sold Today

19*

*NOTE: A suspect DBOX sellout from a few days ago was finally reversed tonight.  If that is backdated, the actual total tickets sold today was 39.  See below for a fuller explanation.

 

T-19 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.66		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	16.06%		13.59m
TGM	66.08		252	2857		0/257	33363/36220	7.89%		11474	16.45%		12.73m
JWD	91.34		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		2915	64.77%		16.44m
Thor 4	33.24		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	11.13%		9.64m
BP2	29.90		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	11.24%		8.37m
Ava 2	83.17		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	21.01%		14.14m
Wick 4	244.56		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	34.65%		21.77m
AM3	45.25		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	18.02%		7.92m
GOTG3	57.74		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	17.56%		10.10m
Fast X	232.80		11	811		0/182	26899/27710	2.93%		4122	45.80%		17.46m
Indy 5	184.56		48	1023		0/124	18498/19521	5.24%		4767	39.61%		13.29m
Oppy	208.39		28	906		0/53	7344/8250	10.98%		10750	17.56%		21.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       527/8153  [6.46% sold]
Matinee:    67/2762  [2.43% | 3.55% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          617/814  [75.80% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1271/23902  [5.32% sold] [+19 tickets]
PLF:      1577/9813  [16.07% | 83.53% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Once again, a couple of notes.

 

First off, if folks didn't see my post from earlier, turns out that Dune: Part Two isn't going to have any sort of Super Bowl preference.  I made my initial (and subsequent) posts on the subject off a mention in one of the Trades about films that were expected to have SB trailers, with D2 being one of them.  But when I went to confirm it this afternoon, I found out that WB looks to be completely punting the SB.

 

As such, I fully expect some pretty terribad numbers locally tomorrow as this entire region is gonna be football mad tomorrow.

 

Secondly, a few days ago, I noted a suspect DBOX sellout worth 20 tickets.  Wasn't reversed until tonight.  I will in fact adjust it on my historical sheets, but for those keeping track the numbers go like this:

 

T-22: 56 tickets sold [-20 from reported total]

T-21:  55 tickets sold

T-20:  41 tickets sold

T-19:  39 tickets sold [+20 from reported total]

 

Which, honestly looks more likely anyway.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22765	24716	1951	7.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-18 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.46		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	16.59%		13.54m
TGM	61.66		307	3164		0/257	33053/36217	8.74%		11474	17.00%		11.88m
JWD	90.07		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		2915	66.93%		16.21m
Thor 4	33.20		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	11.50%		9.63m
BP2	30.35		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	11.61%		8.50m
Ava 2	80.89		142	2412		0/142	18926/21338	11.30%		8986	21.71%		13.75m
Wick 4	222.72		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	35.81%		19.82m
AM3	45.47		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	18.63%		7.96m
GOTG3	58.07		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	18.15%		10.16m
Fast X	232.54		28	839		0/182	26871/27710	3.03%		4122	47.33%		17.44m
Indy 5	184.40		35	1058		0/124	18463/19521	5.42%		4767	40.93%		13.28m
Oppy	210.24		22	928		0/53	7322/8250	11.25%		10750	18.15%		22.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      538/8153  [6.60% sold]
Matinee:    67/2762  [2.43% | 3.43% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          628/814  [77.15% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1323/23902  [5.54% sold] [+52 tickets]
PLF:      1620/9813  [16.51% | 83.03% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Got to admit I am fairly surprised at how well Dune: Part Two did locally in the face of so much local competition (fun fact, when I went on my dinner run during OT, streets were abnormally deserted as was the store I stopped quickly at as well as the restaurant where I got dinner).  Yet here we are.

 

Maybe all those movie trailers reminded folks about D2 in sort of weird halo effect way?  Banner ads hitting phones thanks to targeted advertising from tracking algorithms? ...  Yeah, I gots nothing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Whatever the reason, this is the best day of sales since T-31 (fifth day of pre-sales).

Edited February 13 by Porthos

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-19 Thursday previews and T-15 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 342

New Sales: 16

Growth: 4.9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 268/9

Late Evening: 67/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 75/7

IMAX: 192/4

VIP: 65/5

4dx: 10/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.213 of Marvels for $8.0M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 382

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 2

Growth: 0.5%

 

While growth isn't terribly high, it's enough to outpace Marvels right now.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-18 Thursday previews and T-14 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 347

New Sales: 5

Growth: 1.5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 19.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 272/9

Late Evening: 68/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 77/7

IMAX: 191/4

VIP: 69/5

4dx: 10/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.184 of Marvels for $7.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 393

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 11

Growth: 2.9%

 

Low sales day, likely due to no Superbowl ad (although, that counters what we saw in Sacramento). Funnily enough, I saw a trailer for Dune yesterday on TV when watching a replay of a Saturday night hockey game.

 

I'll be getting HG:BoSS coming online for a comp later in the week. As a shorter sales period (that was more drawn out), that's probably going to be a tricky comp, but, book based franchise flicks, it's among my better options.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-4

 

Previews

Total Sales: 287

New Sales: 55

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/2

Late Afternoon: 13/4

Early Evening: 203/7

Late Evening: 69/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 134/7

IMAX: 63/6

VIP: 86/5

Regular: 4/2

 

Comps

2.110x Aquaman 2 for $9.5M

0.980x HG:BoSS for $5.6M

0.709x of The Marvels for $4.7M

Avg: $6.6M

 

I continues to show no sign of aligning to the consensus. At this stage, it's about to overtake HGBoSS. It's gained well against Marvels, that it might catch it. 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-3

 

Previews

Total Sales: 341

New Sales: 54

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 17.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/2

Late Afternoon: 28/4

Early Evening: 224/7

Late Evening: 87/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 151/7

IMAX: 73/6

VIP: 109/5

Regular: 8/2

 

Comps

1.960x Aquaman 2 for $8.8M

1.056x HG:BoSS for $6.1M

0.780x of The Marvels for $5.2M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Steady day. I don't think this got a trailer during the Canadian broadcast last night.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

One Love, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 641

New Sales: 102

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 32.0

 

Comps

0.879x of FNAF for $9.1M

2.233 of Madame Web for ($14.7M)*

2.188x HG:BoSS for $12.6M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $12.1M

Still using an active track as a comp because the outselling of MW is still the most interesting element. I threw in HG as a quick comp, as it's probably the most relevant of my othrr options based on sales curve.

 

I still thought using FNAF as a comp would be more controversial.

 

One Love, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 763

New Sales: 122

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 38.2

 

Comps

0.863x of FNAF for $8.9M

2.238 of Madame Web for ($14.9M)*

2.362x HG:BoSS for $14.7M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $12.4M

 

Still marching along.

 

I asked this question yesterday, but, I'll throw it up here again. Has anyone heard of any specific organization around this film to make it a big group event, or is this front loading all organic. With TCP , there were church groups booking up theatres from what I understand, that contributed to that first day gross. Is there anything similar here?

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

49 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

One Love, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

 

Total Sales: 763

New Sales: 122

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 38.2

 

Comps

0.863x of FNAF for $8.9M

2.238 of Madame Web for ($14.9M)*

2.362x HG:BoSS for $14.7M

*Using estimate based on comps

Average: $12.4M

 

Still marching along.

 

I asked this question yesterday, but, I'll throw it up here again. Has anyone heard of any specific organization around this film to make it a big group event, or is this front loading all organic. With TCP , there were church groups booking up theatres from what I understand, that contributed to that first day gross. Is there anything similar here?

 

 

 

As far as I know, there is no national group buying for this effort.

 

Valentine's Day just really is a big movie going day for movies.

 

And I'm actually surprised at how high the buying is, with 80M $5 tickets codes coming online Tuesday through Atom/TMobile...

Edited February 12 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

37 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

As far as I know, there is no national group buying for this effort.

 

Valentine's Day just really is a big movie going day for movies.

 

And I'm actually surprised at how high the buying is, with 80M $5 tickets codes coming online Tuesday through Atom/TMobile...

Ooh which days can those be used? What’s the % of those codes that are actually used? 

[vafrow]

42 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

As far as I know, there is no national group buying for this effort.

 

Valentine's Day just really is a big movie going day for movies.

 

And I'm actually surprised at how high the buying is, with 80M $5 tickets codes coming online Tuesday through Atom/TMobile...

 

Thanks. I didn't think so, or we'd have heard. I'm still trying to make sense of the overindex I'm seeing and trying to identify potential causes.

 

Also, while the T Mobile desl isn't active here, MTC4 has further discounted Tuesdays to be $5 for the month of February, so there's that.

[el sid]

Because several members reported that Bob Marley: One Love could perform similar as TCP (a one day wonder) I looked how good its Thursday and Saturday presales are in my theaters.

It had, counted on Saturday for Thursday (5 days left) 189 sold tickets.
And counted also on Saturday for Saturday (7 days left) it had 305 sold tickets.

On the one hand, that's way less than for Wednesday (825 sold tickets), OTOH the numbers per se are decent.
E.g. Respect (650k from previews/2.95M true Friday/8.8M OW) finally (= on Thursday for Friday/with only 1 day left) had 247 sold tickets.

 

 

By the way, I also „predicted“ 700-800k from previews for Lisa Frankenstein . But to be honest I wouldn't have thought that it stays below 4M OW.

[vafrow]

Post above made me curious, so I counted the Thursday drops for the Valentine's Day openers

 

One Love

VD= 753, Thursday= 150

80% drop

 

Madame Web

VD=341,  Thursday= 61

82% drop

 

Showtimes are not fully loaded up yet for Friday and beyond. Particularly on One Love, where most locations don't have anything up yet.

 

One Love outperforming MW on Wednesday is unexpected, but it's holding slightly better as well which is surprising.

 

Digging in a bit more, Jamaican heritage Canadians makes up 30% of the black population in Canada. This is probably an influencing factor for the success up here.

[emoviefan]

Yeah if the WOM for One Love and Madame are not great then they are tanking after VD. March 1 here we come. 

[vafrow]

On 2/1/2024 at 4:56 PM, M37 said:

 

Since as noted, we very little data on Wed/Valentine's opening, decided to rope in the Thursday debuts as well to hopefully help illuminate. The data set still only includes 2 titles since 2013, but nonetheless there does seem to be an underlying pattern.

Here are the Friday to Monday daily grosses, as compared to the midweek Valentine's opening, whether it was on Wed or Thur

 

 

Some clear outliers: on the high end a more male skewing action flick in Jumper, as well as Alita (though if you include the Wed previews into the OD, it comes right back in line with the rest of the bunch, none of which had any previews of note). And on the low end, we the more Valentine's heavy titles like Safe Haven and Daddy's Little Girls. [Also, Isn't it Romantic actually opened on Wed, not Thur/V-Day, so could also see how it may have also dipped down into that lower range had some fraction of early demand not been burned off a day before]

 

More importantly, here's how that daily ebb and flow translates into respective multipliers, estimating a non-VDay Thursday value to fill in the blank for the the films that didn't actually have that day.

 

Title	3-Day	4-Day	6-Day (Est)
Alita TruVD (2019-Th)	4.52	5.31	6.68
Jumper (2008-Th)	4.13	4.84	6.21
Music & Lyrics (2007-W)	3.28	3.82	5.19
Alita Full OD (2019-Th)	3.24	3.80	5.17
Definitely Maybe (2008-Th)	3.13	3.68	5.05
Beautiful Creatures (2013-Th)	2.98	3.52	4.89
Good Day to Die Hard (2013-Th)	3.01	3.48	4.85
Step Up 2 (2008-Th)	2.87	3.35	4.72
Isn't it Romantic (2019-Wed*)	2.59	3.03	4.40
Daddy's Little Girls (2007-W)	2.45	2.86	4.23
Safe Haven (2013-Th)	2.42	2.77	4.14

 

With the caveat of this being a not so great data set, that cluster in the middle range sure seems like a decent place to set expectations, unless either of these films skew towards the high or low end outliers (or V-Day related movie habits have shifted a great deal over the past few years and we just don't have solid enough data to know it yet)

 

I think for Madame Web, my starting point would be Beautiful Creatures, with room to push higher. Off say a $4M OD/V-Day, would expect the rest of the extended weekend to be in the range of:

~$12M 3-day, $14M 4-day, and $20M 6-day

 

Not sure about Marley, though sales so far are suggesting its going to be V-Day heavier, and may track more like DLG, which didn't even manage a 3x V-Day for its ensuing 4-day weekend

 

I'm bumping @M37 post, as this is the best tool to figure out how Wednesday grosses will roll out to the weekend in general.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Ooh which days can those be used? What’s the % of those codes that are actually used? 

 

No idea on %, but it seems that movies that skew 13-45 male and are borderline movies (tired sequels, "maybe I'll see that", etc) do best with the deal...like Margaret last year got NO help...

 

They can be used starting tomorrow for any day sales are open...and normally must be purchased by the end of Sunday...

 

Normally, they have as much effect on elevating a movie as holding down competition...

[keysersoze123]

On 2/9/2024 at 10:29 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Previews - 2938/304300 42305.26 1991 shows

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 3670/306190 53459.98 2009 shows +732

Friday - 3403/448696 48694.69 2811 shows

 

2.5 days later and I want to see how Friday sales are. Feels like Elemental to me.  

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, TheTom said:

9898 (Saturday) + 1209 (Sunday) isn’t it 11107?????

 

I think there’s a typo @keysersoze123

Not sure I got your question. + number is delta from the previous update. I just call it out so that you can see how the daily pace is trending. In this case the number is 72643 - 63125 = 9518/ 

 

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-preview-1235823356/

 

Quote

Paramount’s musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love will tower over Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web, $30M-$35M to $20M-$25M over the six-day Valentine’s Day-Presidents Day stretch.

 

While those figures haven’t changed much since they arrived on tracking, doesn’t that seem a bit anticlimactic for a Presidents Day stretch? I mean, Disney/Marvel Studio’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania did $120.3M in its four-day opening a year ago, and many poured cold water on that result. Get with it: Who wouldn’t want that now?

 

“In a trough of non-moviegoing, it’s hard to gin it up again, unless you have a franchise type movie, which Dune: Part Two is at the start of March,” observed one razor sharp rival motion picture exec about the dual strikes’ impact on the 2024 theatrical sked.

 

Bob Marley: One Love is definitely solid with multi-cultural, but also in first choice it’s jamming with older women, older men and younger females. Paramount has a majority of PLFs for this $70M PG-13 feature production, directed by King Richard‘s Reinaldo Marcus Green and starring Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title role. 

 

 

For most exhibitors, I understand, Bob Marley: One Love is outselling Madame Web, 2-to-1 in advance ticket sales.

 

Madame Web has all the Imax screens and some PLFs in its 4,000 theater count. Pic is trending with younger females and younger males. Sony has pivoted in its spots of late to stress the thriller aspect of the feature instead of any connection to the Spider-Man universe. There is concern out there that fanboys are anti-female superhero movies post The Marvels registering the lowest opening for Disney/Marvel Studios at $46.1M stateside, $84.5M domestic final and $206M global. No reviews yet for Madame Web. The world premiere is tonight in Westwood. 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

i know this is tracking thread and i hate when people on twitter who have like 12 dollars in their bank account and will spend at least 8 of it on a starbucks drink discuss movie economics..... but.. 70 million for Bob Marley seems crazy

 

And even if it overperforms tracking which seems likely for the initial opening, at least... that budget is tough to recover

[TheFlatLannister]

One love data is coming in and just wow

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/11/2024 at 3:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
879	19	1353	64.97%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

427

1794

23.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

375

1388

27.02%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1746	60	18719	9.33%	13	91

 

2.575

Indiana Jones T-18

18.54M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
887	8	1353	65.56%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

444

1794

24.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

386

1388

27.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1806	60	18719	9.65%	13	91

 

1.534	Oppenheimer T-17	16.11M
2.656	Indiana Jones T-17	19.12M

0.888

Batman T-17*

19.19M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

[babz06]

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

i know this is tracking thread and i hate when people on twitter who have like 12 dollars in their bank account and will spend at least 8 of it on a starbucks drink discuss movie economics..... but.. 70 million for Bob Marley seems crazy

 

And even if it overperforms tracking which seems likely for the initial opening, at least... that budget is tough to recover

Probably music rights? Maybe they production was large? . I can’t imagine this cast had high salaries which would be the only other plausible reason. 

Edited February 12 by babz06