The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/21/2024 at 12:37 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-9 Days

 

Thursday - 2703/42354 (148 showings)

 

Comps

1.13x Oppy - $11.9M

0.48x Avatar 2 - $8.2M

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Thursday - 3061/54989 (215 showings)

 

Comps

1.07x Oppy - $11.2M

0.47x Avatar 2 - $8M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/21/2024 at 12:39 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-16 Days

Previews - 133/31272 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.75x Elemental - $4.2M

1.96x Trolls 3 - $2.55M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 154/31196 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.75x Elemental - $4.2M

2.08x Trolls 3 - $2.7M

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-14]

159/11054 (1.44% sold) [+16 tickets] [86 showtimes]

 

0.50476x GBA at T-14                   [2.57m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]

1.00633x Elemental at T-14          [2.42m]

0.63600x Wonka at T-14              [2.23m]

 

Not gonna over think this as it's a Q&D and at T-14 to boot.  Plus I got some nice harmony there, so imma rollin' with it.

 

NARRATOR:  GBA had only been on sale for three days at that point though

 

HUSH NARRATOR!!!

 

Anyway, as I said, not really overthinking it.  Though I do have a strict Wish EA comp not bringing it in due to being just too different of a release pattern (plus it being about half of the above totals) and I probably don't have much else really worth using as a comp (at least for T-14).  Or rather, don't want to spend the time thinking about what to look for.

 

So all in all... Eh.  Not great, not terrible.  And not even in the ironic sense.  Tracking fairly closely to Elemental at the moment (which sold 17 tickets on its T-14).

 

So unless something radically changes my mind, next update (if I feel like it) at T-7.

Edited February 23 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 2/22/2024 at 12:05 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22131	24913	2782	11.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

129

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.91		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	23.66%		13.65m
Thor 4	35.06		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	16.40%		10.17m
BP2	33.18		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	16.56%		9.29m
AM3	48.11		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	26.56%		8.42m
GOTG3	63.10		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	25.88%		11.04m
Dune	283.30		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	95.44%		14.45m
TGM	49.95		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	24.25%		9.62m
JWD	77.91		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	25.37%		14.02m
Ava 2	70.93		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	30.96%		12.06m
Wick 4	175.74		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	51.06%		15.64m
Fast X	193.60		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	67.49%		14.52m
TLM	123.53		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	42.40%		12.72m
Indy 5	162.69		82	1710		0/135	18997/20707	8.26%		4767	58.36%		11.71m
Oppy	159.15		116	1748		0/72	8305/10053	17.39%		4621	60.20%		16.71m
Bats Tue EA T-4	101.74		11	688		0/3	127/815	84.42%		743	94.21%		2.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:         777/7918  [9.81% sold]
Matinee:    109/2840  [3.84% | 3.92% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          700/814  [86.00% sold] [+8 tickets]
Thr:    2082/24099  [8.64% sold] [+121 tickets]
PLF:      2228/9825  [22.68% | 80.09% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Definitely a review bounce, but man, I dunno. Not loving that the Ava 2 comp keeps dropping.  On the other hand, my sneaky comp of TLM (sneaky in the sense that it was very middle loaded and not as backloaded as many family friendly flicks) is holding pretty steady, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Indy 5 is also pretty steady as well, for what it's worth.  And Dune: Part Two should still have a larger ATP than either of those two flicks.  As is The Batman, also FWIW.  Though D2 will suffer from not having an extra day of exclusive PLF previews.

 

Gonna see how tomorrow/Friday goes before solidifying any other thoughts I might have.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	181	22782	25721	2939	11.43%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	9
Total Net Seats Added Today	808
Total Seats Sold Today	157

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	56.72		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	25.00%		13.85m
Thor 4	35.52		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	17.33%		10.30m
BP2	33.75		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	17.49%		9.45m
AM3	49.11		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	28.06%		8.60m
GOTG3	63.46		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	27.34%		11.11m
Dune	280.44		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	100.82%		14.30m
TGM	49.45		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	25.61%		9.52m
JWD	75.65		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	26.80%		13.62m
Ava 2	70.75		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	32.71%		12.03m
Wick 4	168.52		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	53.95%		15.00m
Fast X	198.58		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	71.30%		14.89m
TLM	121.35		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	44.80%		12.50m
Indy 5	163.10		92	1802		0/134	18905/20707	8.70%		4767	61.65%		11.74m
Oppy	153.23		170	1918		0/73	8229/10147	18.90%		4621	63.60%		16.09m
Bats Tue EA T-3	101.14		13	701		0/3	114/815	86.01%		743	95.42%		2.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:        821/7852  [10.46% sold]
Matinee:    115/2840  [4.05% | 3.91% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          709/814  [87.10% sold] [+9 tickets]
Thr:    2230/24907  [8.95% sold] [+148 tickets]
PLF:    2314/10189  [22.71% | 78.73% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

As of tonight's sales, Dune: Part Two has now officially passed the final sales total of Dune at stop of tracking.

 

Not much else to add as comps are more or less doing what I expect them to do right now, movement wise.

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-8 Thursday previews and T-4 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 571

New Sales: 25

Growth: 4.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 8/11

Early Evening: 433/21

Late Evening: 130/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 147/8

IMAX: 286/4

VIP: 125/12

Regular: 0/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.410 of Marvels for $9.3M

2.959 of HG: BoSS for $17.0M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 568

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 41

Growth: 7.8%

 

I'm really torn on how this is going to go. On the surface, it's a low growth day given the showtime expansion and the reviews coming online. Both of those should have had a bigger impact.

 

But, it's been steadily gaining against The Marvels comp, and will be above $10M soon. And that's without an ATP adjustment. The amount of IMAX sales will definitely push this up.

 

The IMAX proportion of Thursday sales has now slipped to 50%, where it was 55% not that long ago.

 

The question I keep going over in my head is on what is the likelier scenario: landing under $200M, or over $300M. Few films land firmly in between.

 

I've flipped back and forth on this a few times, but I'm currently betting it goes over. It feels like the word of mouth will kick in over the weekend, and in the weeks to follow. But, ask me tomorrow and I might change my mind.

 

, 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-7 Thursday previews and T-3 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 609

New Sales: 38

Growth: 6.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 8/11

Early Evening: 451/21

Late Evening: 150/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 156/8

IMAX: 306/4

VIP: 128/12

Regular: 6/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.394 of Marvels for $9.2M

2.900 of HG: BoSS for $16.7M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 573

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 0.9%

 

Not a particularly exciting day. The EA shows growth is messed up a bit because I think I overcounted yesterday.

 

I think at this stage though, we won't see a lor of growth until after the EA show. That's been grabbing a lot of the new sales, even with limited capacity available.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-15 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 40

New Sales: 6

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 25/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.353x Wonka for $8.2M

 

I still don't have a firm handle on this, but it has been pretty steady. Adds a little bit every day. 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-14 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 8

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 24/5

Late Evening: 10/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 33/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.087x Wonka for $7.3M

 

Continues at a steady pace.

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Thursday - 3061/54989 (215 showings)

 

Comps

1.07x Oppy - $11.2M

0.47x Avatar 2 - $8M

Cant compared wit Avatar2 a almost 3B prequel. Beter put JW2

[M37]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:12 PM, M37 said:

Dune Part 2 T-11 Thursday Preview Comps

Not much of a change from first update

 

As discussed, still think those Oppy comps are going to come down, and in the end we'll be flirting with ~$10M one way or another (again, for just Thursday)

 

And since everyone has been throwing out OW numbers, he's a rough cut of mine, with some wiggling possible as I dive into numbers a bit more on both ranges before the "official" T-7 Matrix

Dune II Forecast Matrix (T-11)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75	$11.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	7.20	$64.8	$66.6	$68.4	$70.2	$72.0	$73.8	$75.6	$77.4	$79.2
	7.40	$66.6	$68.5	$70.3	$72.2	$74.0	$75.9	$77.7	$79.6	$81.4
	7.60	$68.4	$70.3	$72.2	$74.1	$76.0	$77.9	$79.8	$81.7	$83.6
	7.80	$70.2	$72.2	$74.1	$76.1	$78.0	$80.0	$81.9	$83.9	$85.8
	8.00	$72.0	$74.0	$76.0	$78.0	$80.0	$82.0	$84.0	$86.0	$88.0
	8.20	$73.8	$75.9	$77.9	$80.0	$82.0	$84.1	$86.1	$88.2	$90.2
	8.40	$75.6	$77.7	$79.8	$81.9	$84.0	$86.1	$88.2	$90.3	$92.4
	8.60	$77.4	$79.6	$81.7	$83.9	$86.0	$88.2	$90.3	$92.5	$94.6
	8.80	$79.2	$81.4	$83.6	$85.8	$88.0	$90.2	$92.4	$94.6	$96.8

Note: EA shows are not included in these vales, so add another ~$2M on top for both Previews and OW total

 

 

 

Sure seems to me like $80M OW is the target [$70-$90M], probably more likely to go over than under (but not yet "locked" IMO), though $90M+ going to take some work aka a really strong GA pull and finish (or an IM decently higher than the Avatar 2/Batman/Oppy ~8x)

 

Also

  Reveal hidden contents

Still true, and we're at - or just turning the corner on - the bolded

 

Dune Part 2 T-7 Thursday Preview Comps

Despite the Oppy comps sliding down all week (shocker!), the overall average still remains near $12M. Even if the few, higher end clear outliers are removed, its still would be over $11M, though I'm skeptical that holds. My overall impression is that this is difficult film to comp, not just in matching pace, but in terms of audience composition and market skew. Really wish we had at least one more mid-tier sample (like OK or the Jax/Ral/Pho), but without that think the straight average is overstating the expected result

 

For the Forecast Matrix, after delving into the data, did wiggle the values a little bit, slightly higher on Thursday and lower on the IM, but the result/range is the same.

 

Dune II T-7 Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75	$11.00	$11.25
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	7.20	$66.6	$68.4	$70.2	$72.0	$73.8	$75.6	$77.4	$79.2	$81.0
	7.35	$68.0	$69.8	$71.7	$73.5	$75.3	$77.2	$79.0	$80.9	$82.7
	7.50	$69.4	$71.3	$73.1	$75.0	$76.9	$78.8	$80.6	$82.5	$84.4
	7.65	$70.8	$72.7	$74.6	$76.5	$78.4	$80.3	$82.2	$84.2	$86.1
	7.80	$72.2	$74.1	$76.1	$78.0	$80.0	$81.9	$83.9	$85.8	$87.8
	7.95	$73.5	$75.5	$77.5	$79.5	$81.5	$83.5	$85.5	$87.5	$89.4
	8.10	$74.9	$77.0	$79.0	$81.0	$83.0	$85.1	$87.1	$89.1	$91.1
	8.25	$76.3	$78.4	$80.4	$82.5	$84.6	$86.6	$88.7	$90.8	$92.8
	8.40	$77.7	$79.8	$81.9	$84.0	$86.1	$88.2	$90.3	$92.4	$94.5

Note: values above do not include EA shows, expected to be ~$2M

 

Funny enough, after spending a few weeks trying to pump the breaks, am now easing off and thinking $10M+ Thursday and $80M+ weekend are both more likely than not. Expecting a ~180K finish for MTC1 and ~5500 tix for Sacto, both of which would point to slightly below $10M, but with the nuance of EA and atypical market skew, larger than normal error bars there

 

Interestingly, am more confident on the IM than the final preview value, as the more adult skewing tentpoles - Batman, TGM, Avatar 2 & Oppy - all had nearly identical weekend patterns, after adjusting for holiday/summer effects, and the weekend sales data are in a very similar range. Think one starts with Batman's ~7.75x (after removing EA), and shifts a bit from there, with 8x+ in play, but IMO more likely to come in just below.

 

$80M OW seems to be the target number, give or take depending on one's interpretation of the data

Edited February 23 by M37

[Shawn Robbins]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Can't recall about TGM (I'll check it in a moment), but @Shawn Robbins had The Batman at $2m for both Tue and Wed and so 17.6 True Thursday for Batsy.

 

 

Didn't check to see if he had later confirmation altering those initial numbers in a different update/post here.

Looking back through my database, it seems that was the last update on those numbers.

[Shawn Robbins]

11 hours ago, leoh said:

 

cool!!!!!

 

@Shawn Robbins is seen it getting ~150M domestically and a possible better run than GxK. I think this possible, G and K movies weren’t ever a Big deal in the US, it’s more of a international thing. 

 

any idea when pre sales start?

To be fair, I'm leaning toward the lower end of the Ghostbusters range at the moment, so 35-49 / 96-144 is definitely one of those ranges where I wouldn't automatically assume the middle (or especially the high) end reflect the current expectation.

[charlie Jatinder]

Looked up somethings which may be relevant for Dune tracking

 

1. Canada made 11.5% of previews for Dune: Part 1, normally it is 8%. Conversly, US normally is 92% while for Dune 1 it was 88.5%. Dune 2 could have similar ratio, so your comps may be underindexing but if you are tracking some popular IMAX, it is possible you are overindexing.

2. Drafthouse overindexed for Dune 1, making around 2.25% of previews. For Oppy it was 1.8%, normally it is around 1.5%. @Inceptionzq

3. This is for @keysersoze123. MTC1 was 31% for Dune. For Oppy it was 30%. I suppose for Dune 2, could be around 31%+ as well. Actual gross was 95% of your tracked gross for Oppy. 

 

 

Edited February 23 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Looking back through my database, it seems that was the last update on those numbers.

Looking back my numbers are $3.5M for previews and $18M previews.

[Starphanluke]

I think this was clarified in the thread before but I missed the answer, so I apologize if this is repetitive:

 

the comps for Dune 2 in this thread are for pure Thursday previews, correct? Not factoring in the 2/25 previews? 
 

So the math we are using to predict the full weekend numbers is (Thursday preview) x (IM) + EA Previews? 

[whatsupdoc]

THE QUORUM

6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report

 

Opening Weekend Forecasts (all projections are for Friday - Sunday)

 

• DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $2M - $4M (UP from last week)
• ORDINARY ANGELS: $8M - $11M (UP)
• DUNE:  PART TWO: $62M - $69M (UP)
• KUNG FU PANDA: $52M - $57M (UP)
• IMAGINARY: $16M - $19M (UP)
• ARTHUR THE KING: $13M - $16M (UP)
• LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $1M - $3M (FLAT)
• GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE: $50M - $57M (FLAT)
• IMMACULATE: $7M - $8M (FLAT)
• GODZILLA X KONG: $50M - $57M (UP)
• THE FIRST OMEN: $16M - $19M (NEW)
• MONKEY MAN: $8M - $9M (NEW)

 

See the full report her: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.23.24.pdf

 

[ChiefBrody]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

To be fair, I'm leaning toward the lower end of the Ghostbusters range at the moment, so 35-49 / 96-144 is definitely one of those ranges where I wouldn't automatically assume the middle (or especially the high) end reflect the current expectation.

But you really think GxK will only do $35-$40 million on a major holiday weekend and with zero competition for awhile after it’s release?

[M37]

54 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

I think this was clarified in the thread before but I missed the answer, so I apologize if this is repetitive:

 

the comps for Dune 2 in this thread are for pure Thursday previews, correct? Not factoring in the 2/25 previews? 
 

So the math we are using to predict the full weekend numbers is (Thursday preview) x (IM) + EA Previews? 

Each tracker is choosing their own method for comps: some are Thursday only (often by necessity, lacking IMAX), others include the EA sales in their numbers 

 

The Thur x IM + EA is the method I’m using, because I believe the EA shows are far enough away from previews and IMAX only that they are best viewed as more of a sneak preview. Yes, burning off some demand, but at the same time helping to open capacity for additional PLF sales on Thursday 

[cooldude97]

18 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

But you really think GxK will only do $35-$40 million on a major holiday weekend and with zero competition for awhile after it’s release?

I mean his Rise of the Beasts prediction was off by $30M 

[leoh]

42 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

But you really think GxK will only do $35-$40 million on a major holiday weekend and with zero competition for awhile after it’s release?

So you are saying the second Ghostbusters second weekend is “zero competition”?????

 

I mean Ghostbusters box office record in the US is stronger than monster-verse. These G and K movies are more of an international thing.

[leoh]

DEMON SLAYER previews at the #1 spot in American box office this Thursday!
 

Sony got 1.8k locations for its previews and it still makes it to the #1 spot!

 

1. DEMON SLAYER ($1.8M) 1.8K locations 
2. BOB MARLEY ($1.5M) 3.58k locations

 

DEMON SLAYER is going to have a better weekend than most of us were projecting!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 23 by leoh

[ChiefBrody]

19 minutes ago, leoh said:

So you are saying the second Ghostbusters second weekend is “zero competition”?????

 

I mean Ghostbusters box office record in the US is stronger than monster-verse. These G and K movies are more of an international thing.

Ghostbusters Afterlife brought back the original cast and still only managed $130 million domestically with all theaters opened and no seat reduction. I would hardly call that stronger.