The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-8	Jax	5	39	-2	61	4,580	1.33%
		Phx	6	29	-5	88	4,685	1.88%
		Ral	8	44	2	119	5,047	2.36%
	Total		19	112	-5	268	14,312	1.87%

 

T-8 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .66x (2.05m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .396x (2.48m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .382x (2.14m)

 

Lost a few sales and dropped the forecast to 1.89m.  Hoping to add more comps soon.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-7	Jax	5	39	4	65	4,580	1.42%
		Phx	6	29	12	100	4,685	2.13%
		Ral	8	44	5	124	5,047	2.46%
	Total		19	112	21	289	14,312	2.02%

 

T-7 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .66x (2.05m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .398x (2.49m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .361x (2.02m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .691x (3.8m)

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Arlborn said:

 

Fall Guy seems to lean a lot on its romantic angle, much more than Bullet Train or Free Guy. As in, probably enough to bring quite a few women to the theater, something that I doubt Free Guy or Bullet Train did.

 

I'm bullish on it, studio seems bullish on it as well, it has a lot going for it both with men and women, and it seems that it picked its leads perfectly for a movie coming out in 2024.

 

I think it can break 200M if the quality is there.

I feel like the elitist snoots  around here are going to be shocked with the Fall Guy. This movie seems made to explode with the GA. Unless Universal is way off base here they have huge confidence. Will find out in about 12 days when it premeires at South by southwest. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Once I start a track, I feel compelled to track daily, but for situations where there's not much going on, I may choose not to post daily. Although, I said that for KFP4, and have stayed on it pretty consistently. Two months of Fall Guy though will be a chore.

There’s no need for daily pulls on long sales runs. First few days for a baseline, then weekly/bi-weekly until T-21, 14, or even 7. Abracadabra doesn’t shift to daily for Twin Cities until T-4, and it’s still value added to the data set 

 

The longer the sales run, the less there is to glean from daily fluctuations that a weekly check-in doesn’t already cover 

[cooldude97]

Ghostbusters tickets are on sale now 

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

There’s no need for daily pulls on long sales runs. First few days for a baseline, then weekly/bi-weekly until T-21, 14, or even 7. Abracadabra doesn’t shift to daily for Twin Cities until T-4, and it’s still value added to the data set 

 

The longer the sales run, the less there is to glean from daily fluctuations that a weekly check-in doesn’t already cover 

 

Good points. And I fully recognize it, but it's hard to ignore the urge. 

 

Although, this feels like it might be a bit easier to set and forget. I struggle to envision who's buying preview tickets to a Fall Guy movie really far in advance. Even if it gets rave reviews out of SXSW, the longer sales periods are usually linked to a dedicated IP fan base.

[vale9001]

Gosling doesn't sell action movies. Even that "free" movie on Netflix by the russos had an underwhelming performance.

I understand this should be actually a comedy, and the Barbie effect comes at the right moment for that, but i think like 100-120M range could already be good. I really don't see it going that far over this range. 

Edited February 29 by vale9001

[M37]

12 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Ghostbusters tickets are on sale now 

Setting the O/U at Shazam's 2 $3.4M Thursday

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Good points. And I fully recognize it, but it's hard to ignore the urge. 

 

Although, this feels like it might be a bit easier to set and forget. I struggle to envision who's buying preview tickets to a Fall Guy movie really far in advance. Even if it gets rave reviews out of SXSW, the longer sales periods are usually linked to a dedicated IP fan base.

yeah that's the one thing I worry about with the The Fall Guy is they are going to over do it and burn out the GA with marketing and ticket sales for two months.

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Gosling doesn't sell action movies. Even that "free" movie on Netflix by the russos had an underwhelming performance.

I understand this should be actually a comedy, and the Barbie effect comes at the right moment for that, but i think like 100-120M range could already be good. I really don't see it going that far over this range. 

That's because it was a Netfix typical fake blockbuster. It had nothing to do with Gosling not being able to sell it. 

[M37]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

yeah that's the one thing I worry about with the The Fall Guy is they are going to over do it and burn out the GA with marketing and ticket sales for two months.

Nah, I just think the trailer is going to be on KFP4, and they want to catch those impulse buys by having tickets available, but not really gear up the marketing machine until later. That’s what Uni did with Nope and JWD, Fast X and Super Bowl ad, etc. Unlike Disney, which usually has a shorter sales window, but makes the ticket sale launch an event itself (the better strategy IMO)

[Steele131]

Idk but it feels disingenuous for anyone to say a possible 70-80M opening is bad or underwhelming. Anything above 60M is good tbh. Sure maybe it could’ve broke out (it still could) but that’s not the movies fault. By all accounts it’s going to be big overseas and do well here. 🤷‍♂️

[vale9001]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

That's because it was a Netfix typical fake blockbuster. It had nothing to do with Gosling not being able to sell it. 

 

And a lot of these fake blockbusters made better numbers with unknown directors and hemsworth and other action stars.

 

It's clear Gosling sells better female driven movies (Crazy stupid love, la la Land, Barbie) or he can sells with his star power kinda of indie movies. 

He's not making that ciafrance horror movie about wolfman anymore but that's a project he can sells well, or the oceans romantic Spy movie with Margot Robbie. 

 

Everything should be more male driven like gangster squad, First man, BD 2049, the nice guys were flops. 

 

I have seen lately the nice guys became a kinda of cult movie on the internet with people asking for another action comedy from Gosling. The fall guy should be something similar.... but we know the internet is a bubble ...😅

 

[Eric S'ennui]

Moderation

 

Not the Fall Guy thread.

[Cmasterclay]

For what it's worth I think the overall market is pretty healthy (people are seeing films, nice platform releases and some mini breakouts), I've said for about four months I'm not as negative about the overall health of the box office as the lack of product able to take advantage of it. This is just not a killer slate this year. It happens. And it comes at a precarious time for the box office's long recovery. Dune is a prime example. I agree 70/190 is great for a Dune movie. But the entire January to April box office being built around a movie that grosses that much is not good. The studios shouldn't have left Dune as the number one heavy hitter for these months. 

[Shawn Robbins]

19 hours ago, ChiefBrody said:

So the numbers for GxK continue to rise yet @Shawn Robbins refuses to budge on his prediction of a $35m OW and $78m total domestic gross. Doesn’t make any sense at all…

I've addressed this already, and you've already made your point that you disagree with the numbers. Time to drop it and watch the tone/misleading comments. Consider this a friendly warning.

[Wotad]

9 hours ago, leoh said:

maybe you were misled by dune fans, the early purchases gave the feeling that it could go way higher than it actually could.

 

Dune has a terrible reputation among GA

"Dune has a terrible reputation among GA"  Based on what? Is everyone who sees Dune and Dune 2 just hardcore fans? 

 

Dune converted people to Dune fans which is why Dune 2 openings are much higher.  Dune had good legs and WOM which is proof it connected with GA to some extent but these types of films do have a limit. 

 

If anything Dune has a good reputation among GA but not everyone likes these types of films but the 99.9% who watch it do enjoy it. 

 

Also sorry didn't see mod messages before I posted this. 

Edited February 29 by Wotad

[vafrow]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nah, I just think the trailer is going to be on KFP4, and they want to catch those impulse buys by having tickets available, but not really gear up the marketing machine until later. That’s what Uni did with Nope and JWD, Fast X and Super Bowl ad, etc. Unlike Disney, which usually has a shorter sales window, but makes the ticket sale launch an event itself (the better strategy IMO)

 

The March 12 sales date aligns to its SXSW premiere, so I think that is the bigger trigger for doing so early.

 

The pattern for bigger films that have had SXSW debuts, I think Fall Guy is probably the latest release date. Things like D&D, The Lost City, John Wick 4, Ready Player One all debuted a few weeks later, so opening ticket sales up wasn't a big deal.

 

I just don't think a festival debut really triggers much in the way of advance sales as they're hoping. But, especially for SXSW, which is an open festival, public reactions will be out, so they probably figure it's best to make tickets available.

[filmlover]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nah, I just think the trailer is going to be on KFP4, and they want to catch those impulse buys by having tickets available, but not really gear up the marketing machine until later. That’s what Uni did with Nope and JWD, Fast X and Super Bowl ad, etc. Unlike Disney, which usually has a shorter sales window, but makes the ticket sale launch an event itself (the better strategy IMO)

Universal's trailer attachments with Kung Fu Panda 4 are clearly going to be Despicable Me 4 and The Wild Robot (preview is ready for release). Possibly the Wicked teaser as well since families are going to be among the chief demos for that.

[leoh]

4 hours ago, Arlborn said:

 

Fall Guy seems to lean a lot on its romantic angle, much more than Bullet Train or Free Guy. As in, probably enough to bring quite a few women to the theater, something that I doubt Free Guy or Bullet Train did.

 

I'm bullish on it, studio seems bullish on it as well, it has a lot going for it both with men and women, and it seems that it picked its leads perfectly for a movie coming out in 2024.

 

I think it can break 200M if the quality is there.

and Ryan Gosling is arguably the most popular actor in Hollywood right now thanks to Barbie success both in theaters and award season, hype on him was never as high as it is now. I’d not be surprised if Fall Guy took a huge advantage of Gosling popularity right now, which recalls me the success of Uncharted thanks to Tom Holland popularity after a $2 billion ish spider-man. 

[ThomasNicole]

11 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Fall Guy having nearly 2 months of presales is bizarre.

The movie will premiere at some festival early next month, SXSW i think. 
 

So there’ll be reactions and reviews out very soon, my guess is that they expect them to be good and will try to sell tickets with them, so it’s starting early.