The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Whatever you are predicting for GxK, its a fact that it will be the first MonsterVerse movie that doesnt open in close proximity to multiple other heavy hitter-blockbusters or has to face a worldwide pandemic at its peak, meaning it has no excuses to perform as badly as KOTM for example. It will be a true test to the MonsterVerses' theatralic prospects.

 

As soon as its presales window starts though its important to consider that these movies are not particulary presales-heavy and rely way more on walk-ups than other big franchise films.

“As soon as its presales window starts though its important to consider that these movies are not particulary presales-heavy”

 

this is effectively an excuse before pre sales even start lol

 

(just kidding) 

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	1620	95176	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

673

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.653x) of Trolls 3 $2.15M

(0.924x) of Elemental $2.22M

(2.447x) of Migration $3.67M

(0.790x) of TMNT $3.04M

 

COMP AVG: $2.77M

 

Good news, increased a lot against comps for the past few days. Still looking like a $30Mish OW

If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

[JD Asencio]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

“As soon as its presales window starts though its important to consider that these movies are not particulary presales-heavy”

 

this is effectively an excuse before pre sales even start lol

 

(just kidding) 

 

Remember, walks 😉

 

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, Relevation said:

If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

50m is impossible. It has low ATP as well. I dont see even 40m happening. Its closer to 30m based on Friday pace. 

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

50m is impossible. It has low ATP as well. I dont see even 40m happening. Its closer to 30m based on Friday pace. 

This would mean that Dune is more likely than not staying number one next weekend too IF the WOM has at least a sizable part on today's bump and it's not totally other factors.

[Bob Train]

33 minutes ago, Relevation said:

If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

KFP4 walk ups on THU may be worse than summer movies or Migration (THU was essentially a summer weekday). There is Spring Break, but that is more dependent on region, not nationwide.

[keysersoze123]

On 3/1/2024 at 9:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Friday Final - 294916/1166777 5034458.38 6619 shows +106239

Saturday - 255189/1212673 4289213.25 6888 shows +62042

 

Still walkups were just ok. I am expecting it to be much better tomorrow. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Saturday Final - 429092/1218663 6939205.82 6953 shows +173902

Sunday - 210028/1159824 3476982.80 6565 shows +62445

 

Great walkups at last. This is going to play strong over weekend considering the length and it skewing Adult as well. My show did have some families with kids but was more adult driven that normal for a saturday 1130AM show. 

 

Sunday PS and pace shows its going to have an amazing drop as well. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/29/2024 at 10:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1 previews(T-21) - 11909/519957 212087.11 2641 shows

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 14934/522022 265337.76 2663 shows

Friday - 7985/588104 137245.71 3103 shows 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Saturday Final - 429092/1218663 6939205.82 6953 shows +173902

Sunday - 210028/1159824 3476982.80 6565 shows +62445

 

Great walkups at last. This is going to play strong over weekend considering the length and it skewing Adult as well. My show did have some families with kids but was more adult driven that normal for a saturday 1130AM show. 

 

Sunday PS and pace shows its going to have an amazing drop as well. 

 

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals.

 

More about the Sunday below

 

40 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals.

 

Saturday walkups were 163% of Dune 1's vs. Thu 133%, Fri 128%. Overall ended 195% compared to Dune 1 with 5.8% ATP increase (these are MTC1 numbers so actuals can slightly differ).

 

Sunday presales is 210028 and Friday was 188677 for Dune Part 2. If walkups will be as lousy as on Friday Sun might be looking around $22.8M (19.4% drop) but if they are like on Saturday, then Sunday is $23.3M. Sun/Sat presale comp for Dune Part 2 expects 17.7% drop for Sunday. If the WOM works and walkups are even better relative terms for tomorrow, then the drop can be even smaller.

 

With expected values based on MTC1 and reported Fri+previews we're looking OW $32.2M+$28.3M+23.3M=$83.8M. With MTC1 slightly likely underperforming the actuals can be $0.5-1M more. IF Sunday walkups are even better, it can get to $85-86M region. If I would bet, I'd bet $85M with this information.

 

About next weekend, with current tracking it looks likely that Dune stays number one and Kung-Fu Panda opens second but too early to lock anything in. As we saw with Dune's tracking, much can change in short time...

Edited March 3 by von Kenni
Sunday MTC1 expectations

[keysersoze123]

On 3/1/2024 at 10:20 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 11914/322378 180772.44 2102 shows +1579

Friday - 13880/471405 210782.08 2939 shows +2599

 

around 29 hrs of data. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 13214/322625 200562.14 2104 shows +1300
Friday - 16375/474716 248630.99 2957 shows +2495

[leoh]

 

Theaters recover from a terrible -40% February:

 

Overall estimated box office weekend for all movies is pegged at $112.2M, which is  just -5% from the same weekend a year ago. 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

Edited March 3 by leoh

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 13214/322625 200562.14 2104 shows +1300
Friday - 16375/474716 248630.99 2957 shows +2495

I think 40M OW is possible

 

Time for comparaison :

Elemental : Friday (T-4) - 14317/482882 207658.53 3292 shows

Trolls 3 : Friday T-3 - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

At this point , it's higher than the two movies with 2 or 3 days to increase the margin . BUT i'm agree with you @keysersoze123whenever there are animated films it depends of Walkups and WOM ( even if it's a universal movie animation which has 95% of times a good WOM)

 

PS : i think 3M for previews but the most important is Friday and the Saturday jump

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 14934/522022 265337.76 2663 shows

Friday - 7985/588104 137245.71 3103 shows 

It's not good for Friday , i hope he will around the same number or better with tha last week of presales the multiplier will be not good

[leoh]

Dune hits 28 million domestically this Saturday according to Deadline.

 

It’ll get an 80M OW, becoming the best OW domestically since Five Nights at Freddy’s (80M) and just behind  Oppenheimer (82.5M).

 

Theaters recover from a terrible -40% February:

 

Overall estimated box office weekend for all movies is pegged at $112.2M, which is  just -5% from the same weekend a year ago. 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

 

 

 

[M37]

8 hours ago, Relevation said:

If @M37 is right about KFP4 going to something like a 14-15x IM, is the $30M range not too low for how it’s doing in previews? Like KFP4 will probably have pretty good walkups because preview pace has been a bit slow and it’s a Uni animated film, so if we assume it goes to around $3M+ in comps… would that not take it to $40M+ for the weekend? Maybe even $50-60M+ if it gets closer to $4M? If this is going for a big IM then I think the current sales so far are good enough to warrant upping the forecasts here.

As others have mentioned, a Summer or pre-TG discount Tuesday is going to have much better walk-up potential for a family film than a Thursday in March, even with some schools off. Haven’t really been following KFP4 numbers, but would lean mostly on the Trolls comp, which is in ~$2.5M range, so ~$30-$40M range for OW (probably on the lower side IMO)

[Minnale101]

It depends if movie is good or not

 

1st movie 87% RT

 

2nd movie 81% RT

 

3rd movie 86% RT

 

It’s been a critically acclaimed franchise 

 

if wom I can see it doing 40

million

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-6 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 135

New Sales: 22

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 30/3

Early Evening: 55/6

Late Evening: 47/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 83/8
3D Regular:18/6
Dolby: 34/3

 

Comps

2.547x Wonka for $8.9M

 

This has almost caught Wonka's T-1 number. It gets there tomorrow or Monday.

 

I really wish I had another decent animated comp to measure. I did track Paw Patrol for a wider area, but I have no gross for that track since it was only in previews in Canada. It also had a short cycle (8 days). But, counting the additional area, KFP4 is roughly 5x sales volumes (and probably has higher ATP due to 3d, Dolby and the fact that no adult is watching Paw Patrol without a kid). None of this helps pin down performance, other than it seems to be doing well.

 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-5 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 154

New Sales: 18

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 30/3

Early Evening: 57/6

Late Evening: 64/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 86/8
3D Regular:25/6
Dolby: 43/3

 

Comps

2.750x Wonka for $9.6M

 

Staying steady. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-20, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 3

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 13/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 2/2

 

D1 Comps

0.250x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.731x Madame Web for $4.4M 

0.655x Aquaman 2 for $2.9M

 

Not a good day 2. 

 

The biggest element here is that there's still no Thursday showtimes for the large theatre in my sample. Further, I looked at the broader area and there's no evening IMAX screenings for previews. The one in my area has it for Friday onwards in the evening, but that's the only one. The rest just have matinees.

 

I'm guessing the chain is hedging in case Dune needs the screens, but I thought IMAX contracts were pretty rigid.

 

It'll be interesting to watch. The lack of sales probably isn't helping. For beif the only IMAX evening screening in the area, the Friday showings aren't doing tremendously either.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D3, T-19, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 25

New Sales: 6

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 19/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 16/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D3 Comps

0.260x HG:BoSS for $1.5M

0.658x Madame Web for $4.0M 

0.658x Aquaman 2 for $3.0M

 

Okay day, but I'm really starting to feel the issue with lack of similar length tracks. I'd usually switch to T minus comps, but all of these only started around T-16 or so.

[TwoMisfits]

Be careful with KFP2 walkups...these Infinity free tickets (1-2 per member, which is way better than $5/ticket) have been around for weeks to use...so I expect most of the current presale strength comes from those (and whatever subscribers didn't want Dune).

 

That said, there will be reported revenue for all those tickets, so I do expect a base level for this movie to be much higher than if the deal didn't happen...

Edited March 3 by TwoMisfits

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Saturday Final - 429092/1218663 6939205.82 6953 shows +173902

Sunday - 210028/1159824 3476982.80 6565 shows +62445

 

Great walkups at last. This is going to play strong over weekend considering the length and it skewing Adult as well. My show did have some families with kids but was more adult driven that normal for a saturday 1130AM show. 

 

Sunday PS and pace shows its going to have an amazing drop as well. 

Sub 20% drop. May be even sub 15%.

 

Edit: Other stuff not that good. Still sub 20 possible.

Edited March 3 by charlie Jatinder