The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 13214/322625 200562.14 2104 shows +1300
Friday - 16375/474716 248630.99 2957 shows +2495

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608

Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451

 

Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.  

[leoh]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

Tickets Sold: 52 (+6)

Growth: 13%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.793x) of Migration - $2.69 Million

 

😬 fell behind Migration here by a lot. I think this will do ~$30M opening, and it could leg out if it's good. It has no competition for a while so there is room for money to be made. Let's see what happens. 

the social media embargo was lifted tonight. And at least it seems it’s a good movie, considering the first reliable reactions. So it may have good WoM and then enough walk ups to make over 30M this weekend.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Based on how the current numbers are I’m with the 30M but below 35M for KFP4. Main concern I have is the small increase from Thursday to Friday as of now. We’ll see how this week and then walkups do.

[filmlover]

I think even with a sub-$30M opening Panda 4 should leg it out to $100M+ unless the reviews are especially subpar. The field is completely barren for family-targeted fare atm.

[dallas]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-18

Tickets Sold: 134 (+20)

Growth: 18%

% PLF: 50%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.340x) of Dune 2 - $12.46 Million

 

Little changed. Still selling fairly well. Probably over indexing in my area though due to fan rush. I wouldn't take this number seriously at all. 

[poweranimals]

I'm starting to wonder if KFP4 will even be #1 next weekend.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-18

Tickets Sold: 134 (+20)

Growth: 18%

% PLF: 50%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.340x) of Dune 2 - $12.46 Million

 

Little changed. Still selling fairly well. Probably over indexing in my area though due to fan rush. I wouldn't take this number seriously at all. 

we never know lol

 

but what is interesting is that overall everyone in the US markets is reporting good pre sales. Numbers vary, yet @abracadabra1998 and @TheFlatLannister are also seeing  Ghostbusters having good pre sales. @Porthos as well, although he’s already said he won’t be able to give daily reports.

Edited March 4 by leoh

[emoviefan]

57 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I'm starting to wonder if KFP4 will even be #1 next weekend.

It won't.

[Boxofficerules]

When do the embargo's end on Imaginary?

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

When do the embargo's end on Imaginary?

Can’t find a date and time. I already seen some reactions though and the were not good. Wouldn’t be surprised with sub 10m opening. 

[Grand Cine]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608

Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451

 

Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.  

The good thing , his pace for Friday compare to Elemental and Trolls 3 is much better so if it continues i think 35M is locked and 40M could happen depending of WOM

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Can’t find a date and time. I already seen some reactions though and the were not good. Wouldn’t be surprised with sub 10m opening. 

Where?

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-5 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 154

New Sales: 18

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 30/3

Early Evening: 57/6

Late Evening: 64/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 86/8
3D Regular:25/6
Dolby: 43/3

 

Comps

2.750x Wonka for $9.6M

 

Staying steady. 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-4 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 203

New Sales: 49

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 34/3

Early Evening: 86/6

Late Evening: 80/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 107/8
3D Regular:27/6
Dolby: 69/3

 

Comps

2.819x Wonka for $9.9M

1.493x Aquaman 2 for $6.7M

0.391x The Marvels for $2.6M

 

It's still going really strong. I threw in Aquaman 2 and Marvels as comps, just to give something else as this has clearly outdone Wonka.

 

The fact that it's holding its own against fan driven superhero films shows how strong it's holding. It's growth rate is much better than Marvels was at this stage, so that'll creep up over the course of the week.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D3, T-19, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 25

New Sales: 6

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 19/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 16/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D3 Comps

0.260x HG:BoSS for $1.5M

0.658x Madame Web for $4.0M 

0.658x Aquaman 2 for $3.0M

 

Okay day, but I'm really starting to feel the issue with lack of similar length tracks. I'd usually switch to T minus comps, but all of these only started around T-16 or so.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D4, T-18, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales: 4

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 23/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 20/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.246x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.644x Madame Web for $3.9M 

0.592x Aquaman 2 for $2.7M

 

Doing okay. Still tough to read this one due to various factors like the screen allocation decisions and being farther out than the comps.

[el sid]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, counted 3 days ago (last Friday) after ca. 1 day on sale for Friday, March 22. 21 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 24 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 34 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 24 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 98.

Comps (all three movies counted also after ca. 24 hrs on sale and for Friday): Napoleon (first full day Wednesday) had 141 sold tickets,
M3gan had 43
and The Black Phone had 34 sold tickets.
The Nun II had with 7 days left 218 sold tickets.

I counted the Friday because it showed several fake sell-outs for Thursday.
Overall that was no great but solid start in my theaters.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Where?

Twitter, I had to search for the #Imaginary rather than the word, as you can imagine (no pun intended lol). Seemed to be screenings somewhere on Saturday. 

[emoviefan]

5 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

The good thing , his pace for Friday compare to Elemental and Trolls 3 is much better so if it continues i think 35M is locked and 40M could happen depending of WOM

Okay maybe it can be number one this weekend. The BO is going to get interesting to follow again after the ho hum  of Jan/Feb. 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

14 hours ago, BOfficeStats said:

Cabrini has a Buy 1 Get 1 Free offer on Fandango.  The deal expires on April 30th so maybe it can give the film a nice boost.  

 

In terms of Box Office earnings, do the free tickets have zero value even though they are filling up auditoriums, drastically reducing the ATP? How is that handled in terms of forecasting based on filled seats? @abracadabra1998, how does that affect your Cabrini forecasts, for example?

 

I noted that Angel Studios is promoting Cabrini as opening on Thursday, March 8, International Women's Day, so no Thursday grosses will be rolled into Friday/OW, right? (Akin to Chosen, etc., in that respect.)

 

On the Angel website, I also noticed they are promoting a 21% Early Bird Discount through tonight at certain theaters (AMC seems to be participating, though not Regal), which also affect ATP for anyone purchasing through there. Angel also has a Group Discount booking option. I clicked on it, and for 5 or more tickets, you get an equal number free (based on $15/ticket price). That is probably encouraging church groups, etc., to buy in blocks. I had noted strong local sales at certain local theaters for this coming weekend. How does all of the discounting get built into forecasting?

 

One more thing: Angel Studios site has a live Total Pre-Sales Tracker. They have currently pre-sold ~292,000 tickets, and you can watch a scroll as more tickets get bought around the country. Not sure if this total is only for those bought through the Angel booking site itself. They do not seem to be directly connected to Regal's sales portal, for example, so Regal sales would presumably not be updated live. And yes, they do have a "Pay It Forward" button again ala SoF.

Edited March 4 by Jerri Blank-Diggler
added Pre-Sales Tracker & Pay It Forward info

[Boxofficerules]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Twitter, I had to search for the #Imaginary rather than the word, as you can imagine (no pun intended lol). Seemed to be screenings somewhere on Saturday. 

Does this hurt its chances of number 1 this weekend?

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

In terms of Box Office earnings, do the free tickets have zero value even though they are filling up auditoriums, drastically reducing the ATP? How is that handled in terms of forecasting based on filled seats? @abracadabra1998, how does that affect your Cabrini forecasts, for example?

 

I noted that Angel Studios is promoting Cabrini as opening on Thursday, March 8, International Women's Day, so no Thursday grosses will be rolled into Friday/OW, right? (Akin to Chosen, etc., in that respect.)

 

On the Angel website, I also noticed they are promoting a 21% Early Bird Discount through tonight at certain theaters (AMC seems to be participating, though not Regal), which also affect ATP for anyone purchasing through there. Angel also has a Group Discount booking option. I clicked on it, and for 5 or more tickets, you get an equal number free (based on $15/ticket price). That is probably encouraging church groups, etc., to buy in blocks. I had noted strong local sales at certain local theaters for this coming weekend. How does all of the discounting get built into forecasting?

 

One more thing: Angel Studios site has a live Total Pre-Sales Tracker. They have currently pre-sold ~292,000 tickets, and you can watch a scroll as more tickets get bought around the country. Not sure if this total is only for those bought through the Angel booking site itself. They do not seem to be directly connected to Regal's sales portal, for example, so Regal sales would presumably not be updated live. And yes, they do have a "Pay It Forward" button again ala SoF.

 

Free tickets ALWAYS have box office value.  I've just never been certain what that is.

 

It's normally going to be close to the full price or the full price - like the "free" pay it forward tickets to Cabrini are up to $15 and the free XFinity tickets to KFP4 are also for "up to $15", and then the buyer is charged excess.  So, I assume the box office is the full price of the ticket - the payer is just different.