The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-10	Jax	5	56	6	117	8,681	1.35%
		Phx	6	53	0	122	9,018	1.35%
		Ral	8	39	5	136	5,604	2.43%
	Total		19	148	11	375	23,303	1.61%

 

T-10 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.123x (3.48m)

 - Shazam 2 - .821x (2.79m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.24x (5.09m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .614x (3.87m

 - TMNT (Total) - .627x (3.51m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .415x (3.65m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .786x (3.54m)

 - Uncharted - .972x (3.59m)

 - Indiana Jones - .457x (3.29m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.76m

 

Pretty steady here over the last week.  Been dropping a little but overall staying in the same range.

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .884x (5.66m)

 - Morbius - .612x (3.49m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-9	Jax	5	56	5	122	8,681	1.41%
		Phx	6	53	7	129	9,018	1.43%
		Ral	8	42	10	146	6,052	2.41%
	Total		19	151	22	397	23,751	1.67%

 

T-9 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.059x (3.28m)

 - Shazam 2 - .852x (2.9m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.256x (5.15m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .581x (3.66m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .619x (3.47m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .417x (3.67m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - .985x (3.64m)

 - Indiana Jones - .467x (3.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.75m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .843x (5.39m)

 - Morbius - .6x (3.42m)

[Legion Again]

19 hours ago, M37 said:

Mind the Gap

 

I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread

 

 

So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID

The Data

  Reveal hidden contents

Pulled all $100M+ grossing films since 2015. (Why 2015? Hold that thought). Counted the number of films finishing with 10% of a given final domestic gross (shout to @Legion Again for that suggestion), to account for outside factors like competition, holiday effects, etc, that can either boost or hold down the final total. Given that the $100M+ level is only the last 15-25% of the distribution curve for all major/wide releases, if the sample were random (normal), we would expect to see a continually declining line as values go up, like this

 

 

 

But instead we get clear peaks and valleys, clustering and then voids, and while some of that fluctuation could be noise in a smaller data set, the disparity between those highs and lows is significant enough that to me indicates that there is some additional force/factors at play. Here's how it looks if the X-axis values are continually increased by 10% rather than a flat value (ie so no overalp in the ranges)

We get another small mini-peak around $625M, and what looks like what could be another peak around $100/$110M (but data doesn't go that low ... for now)

 

 

Note: final totals for 2023 films still in release, as well as those cut off by the pandemic in 2020, have been estimated

There are better odds of a film picked at random of grossing $600-$650M than $250-$300M!

 

Since 2015 only one PG13 or R release has finished with final domestic gross between $235M and $315M. Can you name it?

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2, with a $281.7M final gross all the way back in 2015

 

The Theory

  Reveal hidden contents

When I first began pointing out this void, the underlying hypothesis was that there was some unseen bar that had to be cleared, for a film to break out from the more limited audience pool to a broader one. They either had some kind of “it factor” or did not, with nothing in between (until Little Mermaid became one the one post pandemic exception).

 

Looking at the longer term data set, that’s not quite true: family films quite often slide into The Dead Zone. Stepping back, I suppose that makes sense: the primary audience are kids, and the parents buying the tickets probably have a lower threshold for what family films are acceptable to watch in theaters as opposed to all adults selecting films on their own. But setting those PG family films aside, there is a clear gap between the haves and have nots

 

 

The Catch

  Reveal hidden contents

So why does this natural resistance to middle tier grossing films seemingly kick off in 2015? Likely because we saw the domestic market become more top heavy. From 2010-14, the top 5 films released in a calendar year averaged just under $350M each, which accounted for 16.5% of the roughly $10.5B annual total. But from 2015-2019, those same 5 films per year jumped to over $516M on average, now collecting 22.5% of the $11.5B total. To put it another way, the top 5 ballooned by nearly 50% on average, while the overall market only saw 10% growth. Attendance was largely being shifted upwards to the top, at the expense of the titles below.

 

Perhaps this string of giant “event films” – MCU, Star Wars, Jurassic, etc – began to take up so much attention, not just during their runs but even in the weeks/months leading up to them, that it became more difficult for films a step or two below, that previously been able to grind their way into the Dead Zone, to gain enough traction to do so anymore. They didn’t have the “it factor” of the big brands, and instead topped out at a soft ceiling of ~$230M, most even below $200M. The rise of streaming likely also plays a role in this effect, as with larger new content libraries readily available, it becomes more difficult to pick up those tail end stragglers to add another $20/$30/$50M to the total.

 

The But

  Reveal hidden contents

After all this verbosity, will we ever see another $250M non-animated film? Almost certainly we will, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were several this year in particular. Why? The release calendar is largely absent of those top heavy tentpoles, typically with their Spring/Early summer, mid to late Summer and Xmas flags already planted, and probably gives films that were destined to run up again the invisible wall more space to flourish.

 

The adults who typically see a handful (3-6) movies a year, who in 2022 could have had dates circled for Strange MoM, JWD, BPWF and Avatar 2 (maybe TGM too) probably have only late July’s Deadpool 3 as a must see, followed by (I suppose) Joker, and then … surely IO2 and DM4 will pick up some adults, but after that I guess Beetlejuice 2? And, uh ...? And none of these (at least to me) scream $500M potential (though to be fair, neither did Mario or Barbie)

 

Looking back at 2014, the last non-pandemic affected year without a true major event film and the top release under $340M (note: Sniper is really a 2015 release), and you instead find FIVE films settling into the void that would open up the following year. So in a year lacking the big draws at the top, should not be at all surprised to see the mid-tier films return, find their way into the Dead Zone, perhaps starting off with Dune II

 

 

My first comment was going to be that I think the baseline scenario would be lognormal rather than normal… but the 2nd graph (with exponential x-axis) basically covers that perfectly. And we did indeed get my suspected triple peak, exactly where I was suspecting it    
 

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

re: The But

 

ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later.  Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly.  At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back.

 

Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on.  Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.

Perhaps unsurprisingly this would be my 2nd comment, although it shouldn’t make a huge difference in 2015vs 2019 or 2021 vs 2024 I feel like nominal introduces a bit of noise whereas admits/adjusted would reveal more of a real pattern across time. Definitely not going to change the big picture takeaway though.   
 

If we didn’t pull anything 90-100 then the 100-110ish range is suppressed a bit by only getting 50%+ of the adjacency window that the other values have, right? This is another thing that doesn’t really affect the main point just want to make sure I’m understanding the process correctly.  
 

The lowest hanging fruit going forward imo would be seeing the graphs for like 5% or 20%, but this is already a very cool dynamic to have quantified a bit more

[poweranimals]

On 3/11/2024 at 1:06 AM, Porthos said:

BTW. for folks who care about such things, looks like social/review embargo for GBFE will be the day before previews:

 

 

Now, I know waaaaaaay too many folks overreact to this sort of thing (KP4 just had a review drop at a similar time and gee wiz, it did fairly well over at RT all things considered), but I mostly care about how it affects ticket purchase patterns.   Like, this isn't gonna be getting a boost when many similar films will be.

 

Maybe marketing will do the heavy lifting instead.  But just something to keep an eye on as we start to get to T-8 to T-5 when various films will be getting social/review bumps and GBFE won't.

To be fair, The KFP4 critic score is average at best,

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

To be fair, The KFP4 critic score is average at best,

 

But it isn't rotten/terrible, which is what the kneejerk reaction is when folks see a later review drop.  Can see the overreactions on reddit in regards to KFP4, for instance.

 

Now admittedly the social embargo is a tiny bit more of a red flag, but eh.  Unless it's literally the day of release I tend to think folks read far too much into embargo lift dates, both negatively and positively.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

But it isn't rotten/terrible, which is what the kneejerk reaction is when folks see a later review drop.  Can see the overreactions on reddit in regards to KFP4, for instance.

 

Now admittedly the social embargo is a tiny bit more of a red flag, but eh.  Unless it's literally the day of release I tend to think folks read far too much into embargo lift dates, both negatively and positively.

 

And, anyway, I'm more talking about the tracking component as I think that will start to show up Real Soon Now in regards to comps for GBFE unless Sony really pushes the marketing to compensate.

[filmlover]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire is reminding me of Shazam 2 where you can really feel the apathy towards it in the air, especially following a pair of overperformers. The reviews will likely be of no help as well, given how long they're holding the embargo.

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire is reminding me of Shazam 2 where you can really feel the apathy towards it in the air, especially following a pair of overperformers. The reviews will likely be of no help as well, given how long they're holding the embargo.

I made a tiktok back in January talking about what I think the big box office flops of 2024 will be. I was on the money with Argylle, and next on my hit-list was Frozen Empire. Sony better watch out

[leoh]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

To be fair, The KFP4 critic score is average at best,

I don’t think you understand much about RT score range. 70% range is considered good movie with “positive reviews”, high 60 is average movie/reviews and high 50s to low 60 is mixed reviews.

Edited March 12 by leoh

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

But it isn't rotten/terrible, which is what the kneejerk reaction is when folks see a later review drop.  Can see the overreactions on reddit in regards to KFP4, for instance.

 

Now admittedly the social embargo is a tiny bit more of a red flag, but eh.  Unless it's literally the day of release I tend to think folks read far too much into embargo lift dates, both negatively and positively.

Agreed

Movies like Across the Spider Verse and Avatar had their embargo lifted th day before their first screenings/previews. 
 

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I dont think this thread should be about RT. That said its interesting only 102 reviews for Panda is there at RT. I think that is by far the lowest for any big movie. Dune has 386 reviews. 

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	46	13	40	4370	0.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		26	7	65
Marcus:		6	4	15
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	2	20

 

Comps:

1.29x Ordinary Angels: $370k

0.5x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $275k

0.24x Haunting in Venice: $265k

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $245k

 

Average: $290k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-2):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	60	7	47	6039	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		28	2	59.57
Marcus:		11	5	23.4
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	0	17.02

 

Comps:

Ordinary Angels: Missed

0.38x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $210k

0.23x Haunting in Venice: $255k

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $235k

 

Average: $235k

 

Just terrible.

[Tinalera]

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Mar 21 Fri Mar 22 (T-10)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	13	51	2953	3004	0.0169
	Fri	3	18	83	3993	4076	0.0203
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	20	51	4135	4186	0.0121
	Fri	4	25	73	3797	3870	0.0188

[leoh]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think this thread should be about RT. That said its interesting only 102 reviews for Panda is there at RT. I think that is by far the lowest for any big movie. Dune has 386 reviews. 

panda review embargo was lifted 5 days ago. 
 

dune review embargo was lifted 1 month ago.

 

so…

 

Anyways, at the end Dune will get more reviews of course, because critics interest over it is much bigger than their interest for Panda. Compared to Panda, the buzz and hype surrounding Dune was much bigger as well.

 

Panda will end up having ~200-250 reviews on, which is RT is the most common for successful films. Over 300 only for big hits. Dune has now 386 which is huge, very few movies get so much interest from critics, even the very successful ones like Wonka (which has 319 on RT).

 

Massive/historic hits, groundbreaking movies like Barbie and Oppenheimer go as far as 500 reviews on RT. This is kinda the RT celling I’d say.

Edited March 12 by leoh

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

116

2091

5.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

110

2005

5.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
598	73	19395	3.08%	13	95

 

0.963	Black Adam T-10	7.32M
0.630	Transformers T-10	5.55M
1.410	GB Afterlife T-10	6.35M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

126

2091

6.03%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

115

2005

5.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
623	25	19395	3.21%	13	95

 

0.926	Black Adam T-9	7.04M
0.613	Transformers T-9	5.40M
1.334	GB Afterlife T-9	6.00M

 

Raw numbers are fine right now, but not a good trend.

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

130 Showings

2620

+211

21171

ATP:

17.01

1.273

GB Afterlife T-10

5.73M

 

T-11 Friday

164 Showings

2624

+264

26739

ATP:

16.90

1.468

GB Afterlife T-11

17.83M

 

T-12 Saturday

173 Showings

3044

+339

28168

ATP:

15.57

1.697

GB Afterlife T-12

27.89M

 

T-13 Sunday

157 Showings

1619

+193

25011

ATP:

14.79

1.965

GB Afterlife T-13

21.46M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday

148 Showings

2742

+122

23241

ATP:

17.01

1.242

GB Afterlife T-9

5.59M

 

T-10 Friday

166 Showings

2741

+117

27011

ATP:

16.86

1.400

GB Afterlife T-10

17.01M

 

T-11 Saturday

173 Showings

3179

+135

28164

ATP:

15.62

1.614

GB Afterlife T-11

26.53M

 

T-12 Sunday

157 Showings

1685

+66

25007

ATP:

14.80

1.826

GB Afterlife T-12

19.94M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-10 Thursday

143 Showings

331

24050

0.694

Transformers T-10

6.11M

 

T-11 Friday

192 Showings

574

32568

1.511

Transformers T-11

25.45M

 

T-12 Saturday

192 Showings

367

33114

1.005

Transformers T-12

19.46M

 

T-13 Sunday

184 Showings

184

31703

1.449

Transformers T-13

22.46M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday

143 Showings

350

+19

24053

0.693

Transformers T-9

6.10M

 

T-10 Friday

187 Showings

605

+31

31401

1.414

Transformers T-10

23.82M

 

T-11 Saturday

189 Showings

431

+64

32543

1.165

Transformers T-11

22.54M

 

T-12 Sunday

193 Showings

188

+4

32279

1.270

Transformers T-12

19.69M

[leoh]

 

The Fall Guy pre sales started today.

 

And I’m shocked how well it’s selling (considering we’re almost two freaking months away from its release).

The right timing, after that historic  performance at the Oscars.

 

Universal showing why it’s taken Disney crown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12 by leoh

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-10

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	364	12928	73
Fri	488	19660	108
Sat	488	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.41x Dune 2 T-10 = $4.1m

0.43x Marvels T-10 (10 theaters) = $2.9m

1.10x HG BoSS T-10 (10 theaters) = $6.4m

Friday Comp

0.38x Dune 2 T-11 = $7.7m

Saturday Comp

0.42x Dune 2 T-12 = $12.2m

 

THU AVG = $4.46m

Malco

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire T-9

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	365	12928	73
Fri	506	19660	108
Sat	496	20970	114

Thursday Comps

0.41x Dune 2 T-9 = $4.1m

0.42x Marvels T-9 (10 theaters) = $2.7m

0.93x HG BoSS T-9 (10 theaters) = $5.3m

Friday Comp

0.38x Dune 2 T-10 = $7.7m

0.51x Marvels T-10 (10 theaters) = $7.7m

Saturday Comp

0.41x Dune 2 T-11 = $11.8m

 

THU AVG = $4.03m

[SpiderByte]

15 minutes ago, leoh said:

The Fall Guy pre sales started today.

 

And I’m shocked how well it’s selling (considering we’re almost two freaking months away from its release).

The right timing, after that historic  performance at the Oscars.

I've been saying people are overlooking Fall Guy for a while. Ironically, I think a good comp is Free Guy.

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-10

Sales	Seats	Shows
867	24757	131

Comp

0.64x Dune: Part Two T-10 = $6.4m

--- 

Getting a similar result on the Dune 2 comp as Fla fwiw. Adjusted comp for $9.3m Thu previews and -10% ATP gives $5.4m. 

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-9

Sales	Seats	Shows
943	26742	146

Comp

0.66x Dune: Part Two T-9 = $6.6m