The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Rorschach]

On 7/9/2024 at 12:00 AM, Rorschach said:

Longlegs (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 2D showings: 38/201 (18.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $5.7 mil

Watchers: $2.92 mil

Quiet Place: $4.31 mil

Average: $4.31 mil

 

Friday: 

7 2D showings: 62/480 (12.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $10.51 mil

Watchers: $9.83 mil

Quiet Place: $16.53 mil

Average: $12.29 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 100/681 (14.7% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $16.45 mil

Watchers: $11.61 mil

Quiet Place: $18.93 mil

Average: $15.66 mil

 

 

Ludicrous to think that it'll actually end up being that high, but the fact that it's doing this well this early in the week is an encouraging sign. Personally very excited to track this and see where it ends up.

Longlegs (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 2D showings: 45/201 (22.4% sold) [+7]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $2 mil

Watchers: $2.65 mil

Quiet Place: $4.37 mil

Average: $3.01 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 96/480 (20% sold) [+34]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $10.12 mil

Watchers: $11.42 mil

Quiet Place: $14.11 mil

Average: $11.88 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 141/681 (20.7% sold) [+41]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $11.23 mil

Watchers: $12.41 mil

Quiet Place: $17.95 mil

Average: $13.86 mil

Edited July 10 by Rorschach

[vale9001]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

2026 summer look ridiculous to me. I expect many of these movies to move. 

 

 

 

 

it doesn't seems that insane for me 😅. What a normal summer should be. I mean he quotes 12 movies for may and june but avengers 5 and toy story 5 seem like the only ones we can already say should be very big...and still don't think like their previous last chapter. The others are totally uncertains projects. 

 

Same for July. Shrek 5 should be the only obvious big film 

Edited July 10 by vale9001

[Porthos]

On 7/9/2024 at 3:29 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	250	27430	34095	6665	19.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	375
Total Seats Sold Today	116

 

T-17 Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.59		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	31.56%		24.33m
L&T	110.46		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	39.29%		32.03m
BP2	101.38		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	39.67%		28.39m
AM3	151.82		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	63.63%		26.57m
GOTG3	194.15		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	62.00%		33.98m
Bats	181.41		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	56.69%		39.18m
Dune 2	332.92		51	2002		0/171	22714/24716	8.10%		6001	111.06%		39.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1515/13029  [11.63% sold]
Matinee:    423/4466  [9.47% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:             752/6790  [11.08% | 11.28% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3244/11526  [28.15% | 48.67% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     110 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     116 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
--------

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.66563x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [40.58m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	250	27315	34095	6780	19.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

115

 

T-16 Comp

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.62		166	10027		0/351	32409/42436	23.63%		21117	32.11%		24.34m
L&T	109.28		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	39.97%		31.69m
BP2	101.13		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	40.36%		28.32m
AM3	151.88		74	4464		0/239	28513/32977	13.54%		10475	64.73%		26.58m
GOTG3	194.94		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	63.07%		34.11m
Bats	177.86		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		11757	57.67%		38.42m
Dune 2	323.78		92	2094		0/171	22633/24727	8.47%		6001	112.98%		38.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1558/13029  [11.96% sold]
Matinee:    434/4466  [9.72% | 6.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:              781/7324  [10.66% | 11.52% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3290/11526  [28.54% | 48.53% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     108 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     111 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS

-------

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
DP3 = 1.6716x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-16 [40.72m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]

[AniNate]

37 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

 

 

it doesn't seems that insane for me 😅. What a normal summer should be. I mean he quotes 12 movies for may and june but avengers 5 and toy story 5 seem like the only ones we can already say should be very big...and still don't think like their previous last chapter. The others are totally uncertains projects. 

 

Same for July. Shrek 5 should be the only obvious big film 

 

Those "untitled events" doing a lot of the heavy lifting to make those months seem bigger than they are. Those are pretty much lazy placeholders that maybe studios have an actual movie in mind for but more often than not are just quietly scratched out.

[vafrow]

On 7/9/2024 at 6:12 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-10 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales : 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 73

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 16/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

0.950x Fall Guy for $3.0M

0.328x KOTPOTA for $1.6M

0.487x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $2.9M

0.128x HG: BoSS for $0.7M

0.352x Furiosa for $1.2M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.586x KOTPOTA for $8.1M

2.359x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $11.8M

0.622x HG: BoSS for $3.1M

1.704x Furiosa for $8.5M

 

EA Comp

1.587x Fall Guy for $1.3M

 

EA still is selling, but it's been three days since a sale on Thursday previews. This remains very difficult to read.

 

Twisters, T-9 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 20

New Sales : 1

Growth: 5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 73

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 17/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 13/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 2/3

 

Previews Comps

1.000x Fall Guy for $3.2M

0.303x KOTPOTA for $1.5M

0.500x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $2.9M

0.112x HG: BoSS for $0.6M

0.357x Furiosa for $1.3M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.439x KOTPOTA for $7.2M

2.375x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $11.9M

0.531x HG: BoSS for $2.7M

1.696x Furiosa for $8.5M

 

EA Comp

1.531x Fall Guy for $1.3M

 

Still not much. With full showtimes added, it only got one additional screen as well.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/9/2024 at 8:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-2	Jax	5	20	2	21	1,391	1.51%
		Phx	7	22	6	25	1,776	1.41%
		Ral	8	26	12	57	2,437	2.34%
	Total		20	68	20	103	5,604	1.84%
Longlegs	T-2	Jax	4	9	42	140	599	23.37%
		Phx	7	14	76	210	881	23.84%
		Ral	5	14	47	154	960	16.04%
	Total		16	37	165	504	2,440	20.66%
Twisters	T-9	Jax	5	57	4	122	9,841	1.24%
		Phx	7	36	7	118	6,843	1.72%
		Ral	8	44	0	115	6,280	1.83%
	Total		20	137	11	355	22,964	1.55%
Twisters (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	10	17	178	2,186	8.14%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	2	41	412	9.95%
	Total		8	14	19	236	3,216	7.34%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.184x (1.13m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .715x (1.53m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .715x (807k)

 - Joy Ride - 1.907x (1.99m)

 - Massive Talent - .752 (625k)

 - Lost City - .295x (755k)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1.04x (884k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .314x (854k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.12m

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it dips below 1m with the way things are heading.  EA likely pulled in over 1m with the two nights so it's not all bad news.

 

Longlegs T-2 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.125x (3.46m)

 - Strangers - 3.38x (3.41m)

 - Watchers - 4.34x (3.65m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.48x (3.02m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - missed

 - Crawdads (Total) - .811x (1.91m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.5m

 

This is a very impressive run so far.  Every day it surprises me again.  Looks like it's not just local either so I don't think 3m is out of the question!  

 

Twisters (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.11x (9.8m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .898x (8.1m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.239x (8.18m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .865x (5.66m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.489x (6.55m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .62x (5.46m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .17x (3.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.66m

 

Keeping steady with most of the comps.  Expecting another +5% tomorrow

 

Movie	3-day pace
Twisters Total	19.15%
Fall Guy Total	13.77%
Godzilla x Kong	31.86%
Kingdom of Apes Total	18.66%
No Time to Die Total	-
Ghostbusters: FE	9.07%
M:I 7 Total	16.65%
Top Gun 2 Total	16.24%

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-1	Jax	5	20	7	28	1,391	2.01%
		Phx	7	29	11	36	2,287	1.57%
		Ral	8	28	19	76	2,779	2.73%
	Total		20	77	37	140	6,457	2.17%
Longlegs	T-1	Jax	5	10	71	211	721	29.26%
		Phx	7	23	81	291	1,660	17.53%
		Ral	7	17	85	239	1,140	20.96%
	Total		19	50	237	741	3,521	21.05%
Twisters	T-8	Jax	5	57	15	137	9,841	1.39%
		Phx	7	36	4	122	6,843	1.78%
		Ral	8	45	9	124	6,354	1.95%
	Total		20	138	28	383	23,038	1.66%
Twisters (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	11	12	190	2,391	7.95%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	2	43	412	10.44%
	Total		8	15	14	250	3,421	7.31%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.296x (1.24m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .636x (1.37m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .714x (806k)

 - Joy Ride - 1.818x (1.9m)

 - Massive Talent - .733x (609k)

 - Lost City - .29x (742k)

 - Ungentlemanly - .94x (799k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .303x (824k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.1m

 

Stayed above 1m average so that's one positive.   Will need around +40% today to keep pace though

 

Longlegs T-1 adjusted comps

 - Black Phone - 1.73x (3.86m)

 - Strangers - 3.55x (3.57m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.96x (3.61m)

 - Crawdads - 1.047x (2.14m)

 - Old - 3.67x (4.9m)

 

7pm horror comps

 - Smile - 4.26x (6.23m)

 - Boogeyman - 6.62x (6.62m)
 - Halloween Kills - .524x (2.26m)

-  Candyman - 2.52x (4.26m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.63m

 

Looking for around +65% today.  (Switched to previews only comps excluding EA).  Still trying to find the best comp for something like this

 

Twisters (Total) T-8 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.07x (9.68m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .877x (7.9m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.263x (8.34m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .831x (5.44m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.479x (6.51m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .637x (5.6m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .175x (3.45m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.65m

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Fly Me to the Moon, counted today for tomorrow, had surprisingly bad 129 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no shows in the AMC in NY so far).

Comps (without comparison numbers today because they make it look too bad I think; always counted in the same 6 theaters and on Wednesday for Thursday): Bikeriders (1.5M from previews including EA shows) had 208 sold tickets,

The Lost City (2.5M true Thursday) had 402,

The Fall Guy (2.35M true Thursday) had 760 

and Challenges (1.9M - I think that included EA shows too) had 589 sold tickets. 

 

Well, I didn't expect great presales but way better numbers than that.

 

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Longlegs T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
552	2757	33

TC=20, pulled 12PM EST

Comps

0.70x Furiosa T-2 = $2.5m

0.95x Civil War T-2 = $2.8m

4.06x Imaginary T-2 = $3.0m 

2.41x Bikeriders T-2 = $3.1m

0.72x AQP D1 T-2 = $4.9m

 

AVG = $3.26m

 

 

 

Indiana

Longlegs T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
737	3886	41

TC=22, pulled 10AM EST

Comps

1.04x Civil War T-1 = $3.0m

4.69x Imaginary T-1 = $3.5m 

2.69x Bikeriders T-1 = $3.5m

0.69x AQP D1 T-1 = $4.7m

 

AVG = $3.67m

[el sid]

Twisters definitely improved. It had, counted today for next Thursday, 799 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMC in LA. 8 days left.

 

Comps: The Fall Guy (2.35M from previews) had with 6 days left 534 sold tickets 

and Uncharted (3.7M) had with 3 days left = on Monday of the release week 868 sold tickets. 

 

Way better than 1 week ago where it had so few sold tickets in my theaters that I stopped counting (e.g. only 34 sold tickets in the AMC in NY - today it were 99).

But let's see how big the jump till next Monday is before I get too excited.  

[Hiccup23]

23 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Chicago Alamo Drafthouse Theatre 

 

Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	222	306	72.5%
Friday	204	512	39.8%
Saturday	186	524	35.5%
Sunday	88	474	18.6%

Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	253	306	82.7%
Friday	258	512	50.4%
Saturday	253	524	48.3%
Sunday	147	474	31.0%
Twisters	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	75	206	36.4%
Friday	69	103	67.0%
Saturday	38	103	36.9%
Sunday	50	103	48.5%

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

I'm wondering if WOM could hurt Longlegs. I'm already seeing people saying they found it boring and don't understand how it got so hyped.

[Shawn Robbins]

18 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Shawn's numbers have been right near that Deadline number for Longlegs. Maybe the sales are just only in certain markets or times like Maxxxine? 

Hmm? We haven't had published any numbers for Longlegs yet except for clients.

[ThomasNicole]

51 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I'm wondering if WOM could hurt Longlegs. I'm already seeing people saying they found it boring and don't understand how it got so hyped.

WOM hardly hurt opening weekends
 

It maybe can open with 20-ish and have bad legs due to bad WOM. But we’ve seems horror movies even with a C at CS doing fine so hard to know for the next few days 

[Shawn Robbins]

Could definitely see 20s happening, but we wanted to be a little more cautious in case the screen allocation/capacities/online discourse skew some of the current projections before getting to see how the final 24-36 hours go.

 

 

[filmlover]

Yikes.

 

Kevin Costner's 'Horizon 2' Pulled From August Theatrical Release (hollywoodreporter.com)

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yikes.

 

Kevin Costner's 'Horizon 2' Pulled From August Theatrical Release (hollywoodreporter.com)

Man wtf this is so sad 

Horizon Chapter 1 was an actually great movie and the reel at the end got me so excited for Part 2

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Well, let's hope Alien has some good projections and It Ends With Us improves in tracking soon so August can look a bit brighter.

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Hmm? We haven't had published any numbers for Longlegs yet except for clients.

My fault - I mixed you up with Quorum projections! I get the charts all mixed up sometimes. 

[Mojoguy]

August is completely screwed, especially with The Crow there.