The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Eyes.... bleeding... out... of... sockets....

The last two updates were really a huge pain in the ass, just so many showtimes. Mad respect for doing this on the daily for at least the last… month? Maybe more? Huge props!

[kayumanggi]

 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

The last two updates were really a huge pain in the ass, just so many showtimes. Mad respect for doing this on the daily for at least the last… month? Maybe more? Huge props!

 

I just gave up on final updates, even in the final week.

 

I tried this morning, but quit shortly after when I realized I couldn't get it done in a single sitting.

 

A front end loaded behemoth like this is just too difficult for a daily manual track for me.

 

If we ever get a potential challenger to the Endgame record, I think I'd probably have to leave that to the team using scripts entirely.

[LonePirate]

Those IMAX showings of the Paris Olympics Opening Ceremonies seem to be hit or miss with their sales. They certainly are not going to come close to what two showings of D&W would have grossed were they on the schedule instead.

[TwoMisfits]

Looked at my PLF 14 - 34 showings for Deadpool - biggest since Barbie/MoM last year...it's almost 7 full screens (1 very late night to a foreign film) and all in for DP3.  Man, if reviews kill this movie's legs, this theater is gonna be sad on weekdays next week...

 

Right now, it has Twisters on 3 screens, DP4/Inside Out 2/Longlegs/Quiet Place 2 on 1 screen, and a foreign film getting 1 late night showing.  EVERYTHING else is gone - everything.

 

The theater is all in on this movie with the weakness of the following weeks of releases.  No more legs for anything but last week's top 5...

 

Edit to add: Non-PLF 12 is at 29 showings, so almost 6 full screens - biggest since Barbie/MoM last year, too...

 

Twisters is 2+ screens, Inside Out 2 gets 1+ screen, Longlegs and DM4 get 1 screen, and a Quiet Place 2 and a foreign film share 1.

 

Another all in...

Edited July 23 by TwoMisfits

[TheFlatLannister]

Could Deadpool push for $40M previews? That would be bonkers 

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Could Deadpool push for $40M previews? That would be bonkers 

Not anymore

[TalismanRing]

18 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local Regal

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 774/4837 (17 showings)

Joker: $31.38m (R)
Birds of Prey: $43.61m (R)
The Suicide Squad: $62.52 (R)
Black Widow: $42.75m (PG-13)
Marvels: $55.29 (PG-13)

Venom 2: $68.54m (PG-13)

Barbie: $31.04m (PG-13)

 

Joker had the least amount of growth from Mon to Thur. Venom 2 had the most with big late walk-ups

 

I skipped :

• Eternals and Shang-Chi  - they over performed at my theater by 35% because of  area demographics. 
• AEG and SM:NWH were both far too front loaded with early sellouts to bother for Mon comps. 
• Don't have Thor 3 or WF or Mon #s for Strange or GOTG 3

 

NYC Local Regal (5pm)

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 1244/ 6346 (23 showings)

+60.72% from Monday

6 showtimes added

(a lot of weak holdovers just wiped out)

 

RPX 494/ 960:
3D: 90 /744
2D: 660/4638
Total: 1244/ 6346

 

COMPS:
Joker: $41.47m (R)

Barbie: $39.97m (PG-13)

Strange: $24.77m (PG-13)
AEG: $18.91m (PG-13) (at 85% capacity)

 

Dropped a lot of comps since they're just to small it makes the numbers ridiculous and a couple I didn't have Tues #s for. I'll have Wed for BW & GOTG3 though just comping it's Tues to their final Thur #s right now it's $32.97m & $32.39m

 

 

 

[blazera]

12 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Not anymore

Lol it will. Or at least come close. Hype is to big and a high 60 to mid 70 score will not kill it. Anyone expecting 90%RT is delusional🤦‍♂️

Critic scores mean nothing if audience reception is good.

[Ryan C]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Could Deadpool push for $40M previews? That would be bonkers 

 

I'm not feeling as positive about that anymore, but I'm still holding out some hope that it can do that. 

 

Going by @charlie Jatinder and his line chart, it's gonna be really close and if it wants to hit $200M, it has to at least get an IM of 5 or slightly higher if it comes in below $40M previews. 

[Boxofficerules]

It has a 100% right now

[Tinalera]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

I just gave up on final updates, even in the final week.

 

I tried this morning, but quit shortly after when I realized I couldn't get it done in a single sitting.

 

A front end loaded behemoth like this is just too difficult for a daily manual track for me.

 

If we ever get a potential challenger to the Endgame record, I think I'd probably have to leave that to the team using scripts entirely.

Yes part of reason Ive only been doing only so often, Its certainly been an interesting animal to track-the manual counting is a bit much, so trying to do it daily must be nutty., 

 

It all helps in the end how ever much we do it

[jeffthehat]

21 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Deadpool & Wolverine T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
9834	64436	400

TC = 28

Comps

4.20x Dune 2 T-3 = $42.0m

13.06x Furiosa T-3 = $45.7m

 

AVG = $43.86m

 

No good comps for this from this year I think

Indiana

Deadpool & Wolverine T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
11131	68102	432

TC = 28

Comp

4.19x Dune 2 T-2 = $41.9m

14.20x Furiosa T-2 = $49.7m

 

Will drop Furiosa tomorrow. Kept pace with Dune 2

 

[AniNate]

23 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

142

 

They've now allocated 15 showtimes/day to Twisters, unfortunately all the PLF and even standard + DBOX is going to Deadpool. So that screen loss does seem like it's gonna hurt the weekend drop. Here's hoping word of mouth + spillover consolation is just that kind of boost to it.

 

Now 192. Think the pace slowed a little probably because more demand went to the discounted tix tonight. 

[vafrow]

11 hours ago, vafrow said:

MTC4 still hasn't released tickets to Trap yet, despite US sales opening, but Thursday preview tickets will become available later today as showtimes for the next week opens. I've been eager to track that, and I'll have an estimate of Saw X to use as a comp that had a similar sales cycle. 

 

Harold and the Purple crayon will also go up for sale in a similar manner. But I'm probably not tracking that.

 

So, showtimes are up for Thursday previews, but very few showings.

 

Trap is playing in one of my five theatres on a single screen in an auditorium of around 120. Not having a preview showing doesn't mean those locations won't get it for the Friday, but it's generally the exception rather than the rule.

 

Likewise, Harold only has two theatres of the five. Likewise, mid sized auditoriums.

 

Neither seem worthy of a formal track.

 

It's a shame. Trap literally filmed in town here. I took my kid to the set. It's probably on the adult side for him, but I've been debating on taking him, but won't if I have to drive 30 minutes away.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1288	37473	275019	13.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2648

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

COMPS

T-3

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.391x) of Dune 2 $40.84M 

 

Not much to add just LOL. Just insanity. Also, has massive show count, widest i've ever tracked. 

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1392	42245	313479	13.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4772

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

104

*10 sellouts

COMPS

T-2

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.199x) of Dune 2 $39.05M 

 

Dune 2 may actually end up being a solid comp in Florida

 

[babz06]

I feel like people know what they are getting with a Deadpool movie at this point so reviews aren’t going to hurt the opening weekend that much. But I’m not expecting better than average legs if audience reception is mediocre. 

[AniNate]

HSX has had DP&W pegged at a 400m 4 week total for awhile, that would track with a 170m opening and Deadpool 2 legs

 

 

Edited July 24 by AniNate

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/19/2024 at 5:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-6 Thursday: 47558/364483

T-7 Friday: 37733/272260

T-8 Saturday: 28262/284575

T-9 Sunday: 12563/283162

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+4 days of sales]

T-2 Thursday: 72801/365615

T-3 Friday: 63233/504375

T-4 Saturday: 47353/508671

T-5 Sunday: 23760/498677

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+4 days of sales]

T-2 Thursday: 72801/365615

T-3 Friday: 63233/504375

T-4 Saturday: 47353/508671

T-5 Sunday: 23760/498677

Oh, nice. This may hit 170K THU aka close to C$3M.