The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Yeah Trap definitely ain’t going that high lol

 

It Ends With Us and Alien: Romulus on the other hand tho… 

 

$50M for It Ends With Us?

 

Who would've thought that Blake Lively (Ryan Reynolds' wife) would be the one to possibly end the streak of Deadpool and Wolverine topping the box office. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

So, apparently showings for It Ends With Us begin on Wednesday, although by the look of it, it’s very very limited. Like only four showtimes for four theaters. So one showtime for one theater each.

 

I don’t exactly plan on tracking it all the way through (who knows, that might change but I’m pretty busy for the next week or two) but I thought I could give the tickets sold and its kind of insane.

 

All four showtimes were basically sold out. And in total it was 283 tickets sold. That’s insane especially considering it’s extremely limited. Thursday, at least for my local theater, seems to be more down to earth but it’s early. So it could pick up. And I haven’t fully checked Thursday yet.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-9	Jax	5	20	13	202	1,777	11.37%
		Phx	5	19	-2	89	2,196	4.05%
		Ral	7	24	27	303	1,842	16.45%
	Total		17	63	38	594	5,815	10.21%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-8	Jax	3	4	10	131	417	31.41%
		Phx	3	3	3	60	306	19.61%
		Ral	3	3	16	95	209	45.45%
	Total		9	10	29	286	932	30.69%
Trap	T-2	Jax	5	29	29	136	2,362	5.76%
		Phx	7	25	24	110	2,172	5.06%
		Ral	8	25	19	89	2,059	4.32%
	Total		20	79	72	335	6,593	5.08%

 

Trap T-2 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - .539x (1.47m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.642x (1.78m)

 - Old - 2.54x (4.04m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.65x (2.39m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.59x (2.22m)

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - 2.29x (1.82m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.8m

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.055x (9.55m)

 - John Wick 4 - .841x (6.14m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 10.476x (8.8m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .685x (3.56m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 1.888x (3.48m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.438x (7.34m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-8	Jax	5	23	22	224	2,608	8.59%
		Phx	6	25	7	96	2,715	3.54%
		Ral	7	24	32	335	1,842	18.19%
	Total		18	72	61	655	7,165	9.14%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-7	Jax	3	5	11	142	499	28.46%
		Phx	3	3	18	78	306	25.49%
		Ral	3	4	20	115	338	34.02%
	Total		9	12	49	335	1,143	29.31%
Trap	T-1	Jax	5	34	34	170	2,754	6.17%
		Phx	7	34	82	192	2,983	6.44%
		Ral	8	28	46	135	2,215	6.09%
	Total		20	96	162	497	7,952	6.25%

 

Trap T-1 adjusted comps*

 - Crawdads - .702x (1.67m)  +25%

 - Death on the Nile - 2x (2.16m)  +22%

 - Old - 2.46x (3.91m)  +53%

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.99x (2.88m)  +23%

 - Monkey Man - 1.92x (2.69m)  +23%

 - Last Night in Soho - 3.45x (2.74m)  +44%

 - Quiet Place 3 - .383x (2.5m)  

 - Beast - 2.99x (2.84m)  +47%

 - Longlegs - .67x (2.33m)  +47%

 - Black Phone - 1.16x (3.08m)  +34%

 

Size adjusted comp - 2.48m

 

Removed EA from comps and added a few that were more in line with yesterday's growth of +48%.  Old managed a +62% on Wednesday, but I'm expecting closer to +50%.  That would raise the avg comp to 2.56m.  Then a final day push will hopefully get to 2.75m

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-8 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.11x (9.67m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .734x (3.82m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 1.984x (3.66m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.457x (7.39m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .95x (4.79m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.142x (6.74m)

 

I didn't track Hunger Games, Mean Girls or Wonka and I only have final day for Don't Worry Darling.   Struggling to come up with comps for this.  I added a couple of movies that are close in total ticket sales and were fairly frontloaded.   Right now I'm thinking in the 6m ballpark

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/29/2024 at 11:52 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Trap:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 17 Tickets

Theater 2: 25 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $2.43M

AQP:DO: $6.64M

The Nun 2: $6.85M

Evil Dead Rise: $3.62M

Screaivi: $3.63M

KatC: $6.09M

M3GAN: $6.42M

Nope: $5.97M

 

While there are enough comps to say $6.5M rn, I'm going to stick with $3.5M

Trap: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 22 Tickets

Theater 2: 46 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.00M

AQP:DO: $8.11M

The Nun 2: $6.59M

Evil Dead Rise: $3.86M

Screaivi: $4.85M

KatC: $7.58M

M3GAN: $7.48M

Nope: $5.06M

 

Most comps went up. Mostly hovering around $4.5M with the out there $7M break. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.90M

AQP:DO: $9.02M

The Nun 2: $9.47M

Evil Dead Rise: $8.86M

Screaivi: $5.06M

KatC: $6.60M

M3GAN: $6.68M

Nope: $4.11M

 

Wide range. Don't be surprised from $7M-$9M

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/29/2024 at 11:53 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Harold and the Damn Purple Crayon: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 2 Tickets

 

Garfield: $.67M

IF: $.88M

Migration: $.55M

Roby Gilman: N/A (0 Tickets)

Lyle: $2.30M

Super Pets: $.40M

 

No surprise, but very bad for a 2pm Summer start. $.5M-$.75M.

Harold and the Damn Purple Crayon: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 13 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.52M

IF: $1.88M

Migration: $2.50M

Ruby Gilman: $2.18M

Lyle: $4.31M

Super Pets: $.97M

 

Thanks to one singular party, comps are up to $2.5M, but don't hold your breath. $1M is looking much more comfortable for now. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 0 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Garfield: $3.24M

IF: $.85M

Migration: $.59M

Ruby Gilman: $1.35M

Lyle: $3.56M

Super Pets: $.58M

 

idk, I'm giving this one another day for comps to settle.

[filmlover]

Deadpool & Wolverine to Lead Box Office Over M. Night Shyamalan's Trap (variety.com)

 

Trap: $15-20M

Harold: $6-7M

[AniNate]

Sure hope Twisters holds a lot better than 17-19. 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Trap T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
448	8280	80

TC = 25, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

3.29x Imaginary T-2 = $2.4m

0.81x Longlegs T-2 = $2.4m

0.30x Twisters T-2 = $2.5m

0.58x AQP D1 T-2 = $4.0m

 

AVG = $2.81m

Indiana

Trap T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
545	8510	84

TC = 26, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.26x Twisters T-1 = $2.1m

0.74x Longlegs T-1 = $2.2m

3.47x Imaginary T-1 = $2.5m

0.51x AQP D1 T-1 = $3.5m

 

AVG = $2.59m

[misterpepp]

August 5

August 5

August 5

 

🙂

[Relevation]

5 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

August 5

August 5

August 5

 

🙂

?

[misterpepp]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

?

 

Yup, 11:30a EST.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Crow T-23: 34.15% Awareness, 45.69% Interest

Terrifer 3 T-72: 23.55% Awareness, 38.86% Interest

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-2: 29.88% Awareness, 36.87% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 20M

 

Trap T-2: 35.32% Awareness, 52.69% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 81% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

 

1992 T-30: 20.8% Awareness, 43.49% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M

 

Afraid T-30: 17.64% Awareness, 42.83% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-37: 62.86% Awareness, 63.86% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 90M, 71% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 71% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Megalopolis T-58: 17.72% Awareness, 40.5% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 68% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-58: 22.69% Awareness, 38.04% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 13% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 35% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 40% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 30M

 

Joker: Folie a Deux T-65: 56.83% Awareness, 61.33% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 87% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 62% chance of 70M, 56% chance of 90M, 50% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 33% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[Flip]

Cuckoo is selling decently. It’s not playing in any of the theaters I track but it’s got decent sales at other ones with limited show count

[Driver]

23 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I can see It Ends With Us having a better opening than Borderlands.

 

Having a feeling Borderlands is going to perform like the video game adaptations of old. That is, it's going to bomb. 

[keysersoze123]

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 23296/410856 451193.68 2017 shows // includes fan show BO of 8728/31732 176314.12 170 shows

Friday - 12215/588200 234378.41 2835 shows

 

Really solid as it has 15 plus days of sales to go. @Porthos may be its worth a look though MTC1 skew could be higher due to fan shows. 

[Relevation]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 23296/410856 451193.68 2017 shows // includes fan show BO of 8728/31732 176314.12 170 shows

Friday - 12215/588200 234378.41 2835 shows

 

Really solid as it has 15 plus days of sales to go. @Porthos may be its worth a look though MTC1 skew could be higher due to fan shows. 

Pulling up AQPD1 at T-15 out of curiosity since it’s another monster horror movie

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1 

Previews - 21441/515882 437292.61 2519 shows

Friday - 13516/960873 263538.18 4702 shows

 

Alien at T-15 is at 1.087x of Day One, which would yield a fantastic $7.39M preview comp average. I think we could be in for two $50M+ AUG openers at this rate, and Alien could maybe even try for $55M+

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Alien: Romulus MTC1

Previews - 23296/410856 451193.68 2017 shows // includes fan show BO of 8728/31732 176314.12 170 shows

Friday - 12215/588200 234378.41 2835 shows

 

Really solid as it has 15 plus days of sales to go. @Porthos may be its worth a look though MTC1 skew could be higher due to fan shows. 

Dealing with RL stuff right now — any and all tracking from me is suspended in the VERY short term future.  Might clear up by the weekend though.

 

thankfully doesn’t look to be bad RL stuff,  but very time and emotionally consuming stuff.

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Dealing with RL stuff right now — any and all tracking from me is suspended in the VERY short term future.  Might clear up by the weekend though.

 

thankfully doesn’t look to be bad RL stuff,  but very time and emotionally consuming stuff.

Sending some love and positive vibes your way ❤️

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Dealing with RL stuff right now — any and all tracking from me is suspended in the VERY short term future.  Might clear up by the weekend though.

 

thankfully doesn’t look to be bad RL stuff,  but very time and emotionally consuming stuff.

Take care. This is not important at all. 

[kayumanggi]