The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, misterpepp said:

 

Right, apologies, I intended to respond to the latter part of your post but got sidetracked!

 

I don't have very much info on the particulars of "why", but based solely on my own speculation from how the previous events were handled, I think it just comes down to the difficulty of making everyone happy. I don't think the studios particularly like having to work around it on the release schedule, the exhibitors aren't always in agreement on when it should be or how it should be conducted (there have been rumblings in the past about disagreements among theater operators on the price of NCD tickets, I'm sure there are good reasons the price went up last year), and lower-level management and staff don't enjoy the problems that working this day has brought.

 

This is my own opinion, but I wouldn't even count on it being on the second weekend of a big blockbuster. If Joker 2, Venom 3, and/or Moana 2 are huge, they won't want to undercut their potentially big second weeks, regardless of if they're otherwise deserted on the new release front.

 

Second weekend after a big release is probably a worst case scenario for a studio. People now have reason to wait to watch a film. And when NCD comes around, it often sells out, so, someone who waited a weel and doesn't get to see it is probably just as likely to wait for streaming than come back another day.

 

I think all your points on why it may not have come together are valid. But it really paints a picture of an industry that can't get out of their own way.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

Last year NCD was on the 27th, and earliest announcement of that I can find is on August 21st. From a theatre perspective, it's a staffing nightmare, so we'd know by now if it was happening this weekend.

 

The logical date is still Sunday, September 1st. Sunday is better than Saturday. I don't think anything is up for pre-sales for that weekend, at least through MTC4.

 

If chains are going through with it, and follow similar patterns as last year, we'll get an announcement early next week, but you probably will see rumblings about it a day or two before.

 

The fact that this hasn't become a regular and predictable event after a few presumably successful efforts means we can't assume it's taking place. But I can't see why theatres wouldn't be 100% game on this. Concession sales are likely through the roof. There's limited sales that you're really diverting away from regular priced sales at this stage. The bulk of tickets sold would be going to things that have been in theatres for weeks or months. 

Its not happening in September & August from what I know 

[AniNate]

19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Second weekend after a big release is probably a worst case scenario for a studio. People now have reason to wait to watch a film. And when NCD comes around, it often sells out, so, someone who waited a weel and doesn't get to see it is probably just as likely to wait for streaming than come back another day.

 

I think all your points on why it may not have come together are valid. But it really paints a picture of an industry that can't get out of their own way.

 

I mean they always did have a reason to wait anyway with discount Tuesdays. I don't think NCD beats FOMO. Certainly I wouldn't imagine any CBM or other geek franchises would suffer for it.

 

 

Edited August 22 by AniNate

[wattage]

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

 

Right, apologies, I intended to respond to the latter part of your post but got sidetracked!

 

I don't have very much info on the particulars of "why", but based solely on my own speculation from how the previous events were handled, I think it just comes down to the difficulty of making everyone happy. I don't think the studios particularly like having to work around it on the release schedule, the exhibitors aren't always in agreement on when it should be or how it should be conducted (there have been rumblings in the past about disagreements among theater operators on the price of NCD tickets, I'm sure there are good reasons the price went up last year), and lower-level management and staff don't enjoy the problems that working this day has brought.

 

This is my own opinion, but I wouldn't even count on it being on the second weekend of a big blockbuster. If Joker 2, Venom 3, and/or Moana 2 are huge, they won't want to undercut their potentially big second weeks, regardless of if they're otherwise deserted on the new release front.

That all makes sense to me! It's unfortunate but nothing to be done. I can say I'm happy for the theater workers at least that they don't have to deal with the traffic because I definitely heard that it was the nightmare shift for staff. 

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-16: 68.59% Awareness, 66.09% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-114: 23.02% Awareness, 40.15% Interest

Den of Thieves: Pantera T-142: 19.15% Awareness, 35.18% Interest

The Monkey T-184: 20.17% Awareness, 40.67% Interest

F1 T-310: 20.55% Awareness, 37.19% Interest

 

Blink Twice T-2: 35.93% Awareness, 46.89% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

The Crow T-2: 44.05% Awareness, 50.11% Interest

Final Awareness: 78% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Bagman T-30: 18.83% Awareness, 43% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 68% chance of 10M

 

Transformers One T-30: 40.97% Awareness, 48.08% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 96% chance of 20M, 85% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 80% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 87% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M

 

The Wild Robot T-37: 26.06% Awareness, 40.15% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 87% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M

[Eric the Marxist]

https://deadline.com/2024/08/alien-romulus-blink-twice-channing-tatum-box-office-1236046878/

 

Quote

Disney is expected to own No. 1 for the ninth time this summer, the likelihood that its 20th Century Studios’ Alien: Romulus will have the upper tail above Deadpool & Wolverine‘s fifth weekend, $18M to $17M. Through Tuesday, the Fede Alvarez-directed Alien: Romulus counts a running box office of $50.6M.

 

It Ends with Us, from Sony/Wayfarer Studios, will become Blake Lively’s highest-grossing movie at the domestic box office, overtaking Green Lantern ($116.6M) — we’re not counting her secret cameo in D&W. The romantic drama directed by and starring Justin Baldoni is set to do around $13M.

 

These holdovers will prevail over three studio wide entries, all of which are expected to file in the single-digit millions. What about the overindexing of the summer? Won’t that prevail here against what tracking is seeing? No, because it’s late August, and many are in back-to-school mode. Comscore reports that 33% K-12 are on break, while 58% of colleges are out.

 

[Ryan C]

On 8/19/2024 at 11:45 PM, Ryan C said:

Blink Twice

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 685 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 11:40PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not really expecting to see a massive breakout with this one, but for a completely original movie that I don't think has gotten the best marketing push this are signs that this will at least not do below $5M. 

 

Also, while most PLFs are going to both Alien: Romulus and The Crow this weekend, I've seen a few showtimes for this one in Dolby and they are selling quite a lot of seats. It's still impossible to know where this movie will end up at, but I would not be shocked if this and some potential under-the-radar buzz (reviews are good) can boost this one's prospects. 

 

I know Alien: Romulus will probably be the last "big" hit of the summer, but if we could get at least one more, that would be great and unlike The Crow, I'd put my money on this one to (relatively speaking) be that. 

 

Blink Twice

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 992 Seats Sold

A 44.8% Increase From Last Time

 

Taken as of 10:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A few more showtimes were added, but there's not a whole lot to say about this at the moment. 

 

Unless this has a crazy final day in the lead-up to the first Thursday preview screenings, we're most likely looking at a number just under $1M for previews and a weekend between $6M-$9M. That would basically put it within the current projections. 

[Ryan C]

On 8/19/2024 at 11:55 PM, Ryan C said:

The Crow

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 372 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 11:50PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Yeah, PLFs is the only thing this has going for it. Even then, the fact that it has barely sold more than Blink Twice at the same point is not a good sign. 

 

Also, despite having a PLF boost, Borderlands ended up missing $10M in its opening. I'm expecting the same thing to happen with this movie. Maybe the buzz isn't as bad as it was with Borderlands, but it's still buzz that you don't want to have a remake that nobody even asked for in the first place. 

 

Regardless of how much of a financial stake Lionsgate has in this film, it'll most likely be another miss. 

 

The Crow

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 602 Seats Sold

A 61.8% Increase From Last Time

 

Taken as of 10:35PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: All you need to know is that Borderlands would've sold more tickets at this point in my area (it sold 835 by T-2) than this movie is currently doing right now. 

 

Would not be surprised if Blink Twice beats this one over the weekend. It's pretty safe to say that the small PLF boost is doing absolutely nothing to boost this film's prospects and as we saw with both Borderlands and Deadpool and Wolverine, I'm expecting more demand and more sales to go to Alien: Romulus over the weekend for the PLFs. 

[AniNate]

Coping with Wild Robot's Quorum knowing that It Ends with Us was tracking even worse a month out

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Blink Twice: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets 

 

Trap: $.26M

Bikeriders: $1.05M

Challengers: $.40M

Lisa Frankenstein: $.80M

 

I'd bump this to $.75M-$1M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets 

 

Trap: $.88M

Bikeriders: $1.69M

Challengers: $.66M

Lisa Frankenstein: $.28M

 

Very weird early comps rn.

Blink Twice: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 14 Tickets 

 

Trap: $.44M

Bikeriders: $1.25M

Challengers: $.70M

Lisa Frankenstein: $1.11M

 

Good jump. Still aiming between $.75M-$1.25M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets
Theater 2: 6 Tickets 

 

Trap: $.81M
Bikeriders: $.96M
Challengers: $.47M
Lisa Frankenstein: $.29M

 

Drops keep coming. $1M.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Crow: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 1 Tickets
Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

Borderlands: $.84M
The Watchers: $.64M
The Strangers: $.65M
Thanksgiving: $.64M

 

Bad drop off. Looking around $.6M-$.8M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets
Theater 2: 8 Tickets

 

Borderlands: $4.49M
The Watchers: $2.28M
The Strangers: $3.60M
Thanksgiving: $4.85M

 

Not a terrible start. Will say $3.5M for now

The Crow

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 1 Tickets

Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

Borderlands: $.34M

The Watchers: $.54M

The Strangers: $.47M

Thanksgiving: $.50M

 

No movement. Keeps dropping. $.4M-$.5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Borderlands: $2.43M

The Watchers: $3.09M

The Strangers: $2.67M

Thanksgiving: $3.66M

 

Very small bump in sales. Comps overall drop.  Now looking around $2.5M-$3M

[Flip]

On 8/19/2024 at 11:48 PM, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-17) 

 

21 showtimes/174 tix sold (+5)

 

1.22x AQP Day One (T-17) [8.30m]
2.56x Alien: Romulus (T-17) [16.64m]

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-15) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/201 tix sold (+27)

 

1.35x AQP Day One (T-15) [9.18m]
2.58x Alien: Romulus (T-15) [16.77m]

 

much stronger than the past few days

[Rorschach]

On 8/20/2024 at 10:45 PM, Rorschach said:

Blink Twice (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

3 Thursday showings: 7/201 (3.5% sold) [+2]

 

5 Friday showings: 10/335 (3% sold) [no change]

 

Thurs + Fri: 17/536 (2.8% sold) [+2]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.32M

Bikeriders: $1.55M

Trap: $1.7M

Cuckoo: $1.21M

Avg: $1.45M

Blink Twice (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

3 Thursday showings: 11/201 (5.5% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $524k

Bikeriders: $532k

Trap: $526k

Avg: $527k

 

5 Friday showings: 16/335 (4.8% sold) [+6]

 

Thurs + Fri: 27/536 (2.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $2.12M

Bikeriders: $1.56M

Trap: $1.44M

Cuckoo: $1.46M

Avg: $1.65M

 

 

Ticket totals would definitely be ten times the current amount if they'd gone with the original title.

[Rorschach]

On 8/20/2024 at 10:47 PM, Rorschach said:

The Crow (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 12/846 (1.4% sold) [+2]

1 IMAX showing: 1/388

4 2D showings: 11/458

 

Friday: 13/1,184 (1.1% sold) [+2]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

8 2D showings: 13/796 

 

Thurs + Fri: 25/2,030 (1.2% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.99M

Borderlands: $1.25M

Avg: $1.62M

 

 

lol. lmao, even.

The Crow (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 12/846 (1.4% sold) [no change]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

4 2D showings: 12/458

 

Comps:

Strangers: $455k

Borderlands: $466k

Avg: $482k

 

Friday: 13/1,184 (1.1% sold) [no change]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

8 2D showings: 13/796 

 

Thurs + Fri: 25/2,030 (1.2% sold) [no change]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.59M

Borderlands: $975k

Avg: $1.28M

 

 

Edited August 22 by Rorschach

[emoviefan]

I honestly do not know how Lionsgate is staying in business.

[whatsupdoc]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

I honestly do not know how Lionsgate is staying in business.

It's hard to be a mid-sized distributor these days. It requires major marketing $$$ to compete on the big weekends. So Lionsgate is left with off-peak weekends and a glut of films in a row. 

Edited August 22 by whatsupdoc
had info wrong

[justnumbers]

Lionsgate also just puts out B movies after B movies. Their "big" movies this year are massive stinkers. This feels like a Studio in the 2000s.

[filmlover]

They have nothing for the rest of the year that looks like a hit either. Maybe they should try to put out more polished efforts cause the majority of their movies this year just have a "trashy" vibe to them.

[AJG]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I honestly do not know how Lionsgate is staying in business.

There’s parts of the world where StarzPlay is legit a competitor with Netflix and Amazon. Lionsgate’s library content is also pretty stellar and they license it everywhere.

[el sid]

The Crow, counted today for today, had 362 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best presales in the AMCs in LA (130 sold tickets) and NY (105). 

Up ok 31% since yesterday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday): Borderlands (1.32M from previews) had 661 sold tickets = 0.7M. 

Expend4bles (750k) had 276 = 1M. 

The Watchers (1M) had 251 = 1.45M. 

And The Strangers (1.2M) had 553 = 0.8M. 

 

Average: 1M. 

Despite the ok jump it lost in the comps (yesterday it were 1.25M). 

 

Could it have worse walk-ups than Expend4bles? I guess yes. But also worse than The Strangers? Probably not. So not under 0.8M judging from my theaters.