The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[VanillaSkies]

13 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Usually they are, but I'm just concerned that because of those EA screenings (which are selling well) that most of the people who were going to see the film over the weekend already saw it and see no reason to go back. 

 

It's kind of like the same situation with Transformers One where because of all those EA screenings, demand for the actual weekend won't be as strong because a lot of the fans have already seen it. The major difference is that Transformers One is a crowdpleaser that has a chance to attract a wider audience besides the fans. As good as The Substance is (I can't wait to see it this weekend!), it probably won't reach that much of a wider audience. 

 

That could also make the second weekend drop look worse if those EA screenings are added into the Thursday previews. It's not a big deal, but I think it's something worth keeping in check.

I think they are wise to start it in 1700 theatres. It’s doing well in the big cities and that’s where the buzz will grow from (if well received). 
 

an expansion in the 2nd weekend to the 2000+ theatres your suggesting after the buzz picks up will help with that 2nd weekend drop. 
 

I see nothing wrong with MUBI’s strategy here. Typical for a buzzy festival film like this.

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Previews (T-3)

 

11 showtimes/71 tix sold (+8)

 

.16x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [2.08m]

1.16x Borderlands (T-3) [1.51m]

Transformers One Previews (T-2)

 

14 showtimes/87 tix sold (+16)

 

.17x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [2.21m]

 

Two showtimes are sold out, but these were clearly the result of an anomaly with some large group sales (they weren’t close to selling out before). These are 10 and 11pm showings, so I think I’ll just add the average of the other showings at the same time to get a final number of seats sold (which unfortunately won’t be exact). 
 

other than that, pace is still bad. I removed the Borderlands comp since that would show a number ~1m which doesn’t feel representative 

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Transformers One 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets

Theater 2: 6 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.46M

KFP4: $3.17M

Trolls 3: $3.71M

 

$2.5M-$3.5M range right now

Transformers One: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.79M

KFP4: $2.23M

Trolls 3: $4.20M

 

Going close to $2.5M. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 14 Tickets
Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

Garfield: $18.79M
KFP4: $3.85M
Trolls 3: $3.72M
Paw Patrol 2: $1.31M

 

Umm....too early

 

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Friday (T-4)

 

14 showtimes/65 tix sold (+9)

 

.09x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-4) [4.55m]

.33x Twisters Friday (T-4) [7.08m]

 

Still not looking good

Transformers One Friday (T-3)

 

14 showtimes/73 tix sold (+8)

 

.08x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [4.04m]

.31x Twisters Friday (T-3) [6.65m]

 

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews (T-17)

20 showtimes/332 tix sold (+22)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-17) [???]

1.91x Beetlejuice 2 (T-17) [18.72m]
2.32x AQP Day One (T-17) [15.78m]

 

Still on good pace 

Joker 2 Previews (T-16)

20 showtimes/345 tix sold (+13)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-16) [???]

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-16) [???]
2.36x AQP Day One (T-16) [16.05m]

 

It’s surprising how good the pace has been considering there hasn’t been anything like reviews dropping or new trailers/ promotions.

[Flip]

On 9/15/2024 at 11:33 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot Previews (T-11)

 

16 showtimes/72 tix sold (+5)

 

.39x Inside Out 2 (T-11) [5.07m]

Missed Transformers One (T-11) [???]

 

It’s pacing well, but it’s almost surely not reaching 5m with how it’s currently looking (it only looks so because IO2 underinvested a decent amount + wild robot might overindex a bit)

 

The Wild Robot Previews (T-9)

 

16 showtimes/89 tix sold (+17)

 

.41x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [5.33m]

1.48x Transformers One (T-9) [???]

[Flip]

The Wild Robot Friday (T-10)

 

15 showtimes/81 tix sold

 

2.13x Transformers One Friday (T-10) [???]

[Rorschach]

21 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Transformers One (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 24/2,173 (1.1% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 2/1,164

1 3D showing: 0/135

9 2D showings: 22/874

 

Comps:

IF: $1.05M

Garfield: $1.59M

Inside Out 2: $1.91M

AVG: $1.52M

 

Friday: 29/3,723 (0.8% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 8/1,940

3 3D showings: 1/405

15 2D showings: 20/1,378

 

Comps:

IF: $4.66M

Garfield: $5.87M

Inside Out 2: $3.76M

AVG: $4.76M

 

Thurs + Fri: 53/5,896 (0.9% sold)

 

Comps:

IF: $5.88M

Garfield: $7.3M

Inside Out 2: $6.09M

AVG: $6.42M

Transformers One (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 26/2,173 (1.1% sold) [+2]

3 IMAX showings: 2/1,164

1 3D showing: 0/135

9 2D showings: 24/874

 

Comps:

IF: $929k

Garfield: $1.73M

Inside Out 2: $1.67M

AVG: $1.44M

 

Friday: 42/3,723 (0.8% sold) [+13]

5 IMAX showings: 8/1,940

3 3D showings: 1/405

15 2D showings: 33/1,378

 

Comps:

IF: $5.52M

Garfield: $6.8M

Inside Out 2: $4.15M

AVG: $5.5M

 

Thurs + Fri: 68/5,896 (0.9% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

IF: $6.16M

Garfield: $7.94M

Inside Out 2: $6.05M

AVG: $6.72M

[Flip]

On 9/15/2024 at 11:40 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Friday (T-19) 6 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/201 tix sold (+86)

 

.28x Deadpool 3 Friday (T-19) [16.15m]

1.24x Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-18) [35.74m]

 

Deadpool grew 26.9% before the next time I checked it (T-13), Joker should look to around match that

 

 

Joker 2 Friday (T-17) 2 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/215 tix sold (+14)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 Friday (T-17) [???]

Missed Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-17) [???]

5.0x Trap Friday* (T-17) [22.1m]

6.52x Alien Romulus Friday (T-17) [75.50m]
 

Added more comps, Trap overindexed (looking like Joker will do the same), and Romulus had a very slow start so I want to see how Joker paces versus that
 

*this was Trap’s first day of sales so I’d expect this number to drop

[Flip]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

errrm wtf

 

Hopefully we get other data from various trackers as I would like to see how its performing elsewhere (Probably terrible)

25 tickets from only two shows for me. Probably something like 600k for previews

[Flip]

5 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

It is selling quite well in NYC/LA for its EA showings on Wednesday evening. If WOM is good, this could help propel numbers for the weekend. 

Every artsy movie sells well in NYC and LA though, especially if there’s EA involved

[Ryan C]

On 9/14/2024 at 1:45 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Transformers One

 

T-0, T-4, and T-5

 

Saturday, September 14 - Early Access Screenings: 955 Seats Sold (186.7% Increase From Last Time)

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 634 Seats Sold (48.8% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 457 Seats Sold (12% Increase From Last Time)

= 2,046 Seats Sold (75.3% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: By the time those first EA screenings start, over 1,000 seats should be sold as acceleration has been at a great pace all week (including new showtimes being added to keep up with demand). Less so about the Fan Event screenings that start on Wednesday, but those sales should accelerate at a good pace within the next few days. At the very least, we should expect a pretty solid EA screening number if Paramount chooses to combine Saturday's sales and Wednesday's sales together. 

 

However, the noticeable small jump that actual the Thursday previews have taken since almost a week ago is concerning. I know we're still about a week away from the release date, but this is a bit concerning. I'm not sure whether this indicates that most of this movie's business will come from walk-up business or that all of the Transformers fans will be showing up on either Saturday or Wednesday, but I did expect a slightly bigger jump over the week than just 12%. 

 

With that said, early reviews have been great (good on Paramount for dropping the review embargo early) and this is still a family film. With how walk-up heavy they've been this year, I don't see why that trend would suddenly stop with this one. 

 

Overall, let's hope this has a strong final week. 

 

Transformers One

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 979 Seats Sold (54.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 658 Seats Sold (43.9% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,637 Seats Sold (50% Increase From Last Time Without Saturday EA Showings)

 

Taken as of 12:10AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm seeing signs of potential strong walk-up business and the Fan Event showings are doing pretty good right now, but Thursday alone isn't showing that many great signs. 

 

I still stand by this being a very walk-up heavy movie over the weekend, but hopefully things improve within the next two days. 

If at least 1,000 seats aren't sold by Thursday when the first preview showings start, then I'll be legitmately concerned. 

Edited yesterday at 04:15 AM by Ryan C

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 hours ago, Relevation said:

 

@TheFlatLannister You broke containment lmao

A Star is Born, time for Mendelsons and Gitesh and Exhibition relations to shiver.

[THUNDER BIRD]

 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

TheFlatLannister is famous now

 

[lorddemaxus]

38 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

 

 

 

This is why I’m opposed to numbers from this site appearing on twitter. You got these idiots misrepresenting data to get likes. We’re gonna get more and more of this.

[Cooper Legion]

Spring 2017 flashback intensifying 

[ZeeSoh]

34 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Spring 2017 flashback intensifying 

Hopefully Coppola fanboys/girls are less rabid than Wonder Woman fanboys/girls and will spare the poor VP's and CEO's

[Krissykins]

10 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Never Let Go T-2

 

Tickets sold: 12

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0,16x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 216K

 

Lionsgate is headed towards yet another W this year

 

10 hours ago, filmpalace said:

The Substance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 21

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,29x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 379K

 

Hoping this one will surprise a bit this weekend.

A shame to see Never Let Go so low, that would indicate a $2m OW. Deadline guessed $4-7m so I’m hoping it’s closer to the 7. It’s at 71% on RT so critical reception wise it’s not in the same boat as Borderlands, Crow and Killers Game, so it would be a shame if it opened lower than the latter two. 

[charlie Jatinder]

For Megalopolis, I will just say they aren't the worst ever I have tracked.